Boston’s had its fair share of struggles with the starting rotation this season. Chris Sale can’t stay healthy, Nick Pivetta was pushed to the bullpen, and Corey Kluber is flirting with a 7.00 ERA. Badly in need of an ace, Brayan Bello is coming into his own this season. He’s been rolling since late April and a pair of quality starts against the Yankees has his confidence booming.
Bello’s name popped in the minors last year after he posted a nasty 2.34 ERA and 12.1 K/9 through 96 total frames at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Unfortunately, it didn’t quite translate to the big leagues; Bello’s 4.71 ERA was accompanied by a brutal 1.78 WHIP and 10.4% K-BB% in 57.1 MLB innings. Despite the poor rookie performance, there was reason to believe that a 2023 breakout was on the horizon.
Bello’s underlying metrics were much kinder than his surface numbers. He had a 3.80 xERA, nearly a full run better than his ERA, and an impressive 2.94 FIP. The righty gave up just one homer and was tagged with a highly unsustainable .404 BABIP. This season, the BABIP is down to a more reasonable .292 while the FIP has climbed to 4.00, but the results have been much better.
Brayan Bello's 8 Strikeouts. pic.twitter.com/vczyqqo569
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 19, 2023
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Can Brayan Bello Become the Next Fantasy Ace?
Bello looked shaky to begin 2023, coughing up eight runs in just 7.1 frames through two starts. Since then, he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in nine straight outings. During that stretch, he’s registered a 2.60 ERA and a 49:17 K:BB through 52 frames, lowering his season ERA to 3.49. While there are still things that need to be done, Bello is finally showing his top-of-the-rotation potential at the MLB level.
Bello’s biggest weapon is his elite changeup that’s fueled comparisons to Pedro Martinez. Opponents are hitting .211 against the pitch with an outrageous 41.3% whiff rate. Last season, the average was all the way down at .158 alongside a 44.2% whiff rate. However, the main difference in his level of success this year has been the significantly better results with his sinker and four-seam fastball.
| Pitch Type | Avg Velo | Whiff Rate | BA | xBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Sinker | 96.3 mph | 18.0% | .402 | .274 |
| 2023 Sinker | 95.1 mph | 16.8% | .235 | .274 |
| 2022 Four-Seam | 97.0 mph | 20.3% | .378 | .289 |
| 2023 Four-Seam | 95.8 mph | 24.6% | .226 | .264 |
Of course, the second-year righty still has plenty of work to do before reaching ace status. Bello has been tagged with a 44.9% hard-hit rate and 7.9% barrel rate, leading to his increased xERA and FIP. Last season, despite poor results, those numbers sat at 37.5% and 5.4%, respectively. Fortunately, he’s already begun to limit the hard contact after a spike in the early goings of this season
Bello is coming off a home-and-home against the Yankees, totaling just three runs allowed and 11 punchouts over 14 innings. He’s compiled a stellar 1.44 ERA in four career starts against his new rival, much to Red Sox fans’ excitement. His next two outings are projected to be against the White Sox, who have the fourth-worst OPS against righties, and the Marlins, who are just outside the bottom third in that category. A few more strong outings and Bello’s fantasy value could make a serious leap.