Fantasy Football drafts are happening everywhere. Mock drafts are over and fantasy owners are starting to pick their real teams. There is a certain amount of fun to drafting early, but it is always a good idea to draft as late as you can. Why? More information. Injuries, suspensions, position battles, and training camp performances can all change the values of certain players. This is especially true of a player’s ADP, or “average draft position.”
Fantasy owners want to know when to can expect to get a certain player in the draft. This will allow you to make a game plan. Should you reach for a player in the third round? Should you gamble and pass on a player, hoping that he will make it back to you next round? All of these decisions are made easier by your own research and studying ADP risers and fallers. You want to know the trends of what other fantasy players are doing and thinking. I am going to help you with that.
ADP Risers and Fallers
Throughout the preseason I will break down key players who have seen dramatic changes in their ADP. I will pick out several fantasy players from each position to see if the change is warranted. However, the ADP risers and fallers could also create a buying opportunity (or a reason to avoid), certain players. Let’s take a look at this week’s ADP risers and fallers.
Quarterback ADP
Riser – Tyrod Taylor, Cleveland Browns
Tyrod Taylor’s move from Buffalo to Cleveland has been about as quiet as a roster move can be. The hybrid quarterback has been overshadowed by fellow teammate, and number one pick, Baker Mayfield. This caused many to undervalue Taylor coming into the offseason. However, Mayfield is due to take a seat on the bench, leaving Taylor as the Browns starter to begin 2018.
Taylor is an underrated fantasy asset, scoring at least 17 fantasy points in eight of his 15 starts for the Bills last season. He makes the move to the Brown with an entirely new set of shiny offensive weapons led by Josh Gordon, Jarvis Landry, Corey Coleman, David Njoku, Duke Johnson, and Nick Chubb. To say this is an upgrade from his past Buffalo rosters would be an understatement. Fantasy owners are starting to take notice of the incredible value Taylor brings at the very end of drafts, seeing his ADP crawl up every day.
Taylor’s wheels give fantasy owners an insurance plan regarding his floor. This should make him a more attractive option than the likes of Andy Dalton (sorry Andy). Expect Tyrod Taylor to continue to see a rise in his ADP throughout the preseason, while still remaining a great value. (Current ADP: 190.69)
Faller – Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Well, this should not come as much of surprise folks. Jamies Winston is due to open the season away from the Buccaneers as he serves a three-week suspension. We will not get into the details of the suspension here, but three games sure doesn’t seem like enough. Either way, missing three games in a 16-game season is more than enough to give fantasy owners pause in drafting Winston in standard formats.
The bottom line here is that Winston could easily be a Top-10 quarterback upon his return. Even so, he seems almost undraftable outside of two-quarterback formats due to the suspension. The drop in Winston’s ADP is completely warranted, but he is still going in front of players like Mitchell Trubisky, Case Keenum, and Blake Bortles. All of whom are a better use of your draft pick.
If you are in a deep league and you missed out on the top quarterbacks, it’s possible Winston becomes a value. When Winston is healthy he looks amazing, and he is still getting better. If you are grabbing a backup quarterback at the end of your draft and Winston is there, go for it. (Current ADP: 148.68)
It’s time to get serious! Head on over to Fantrax to start or join a Fantasy Football league. At Fantrax you can draft a team 364 days a year… Sorry, we had to give the IT guy one day off.
Running Back ADP
Riser – Ty Montgomery, Green Bay Packers
Ty Mongomery’s rise in the ADP rankings is a direct result of two things. First, the Aaron Jones suspension. Jones was the chief competition for Montgomery’s playing time and with will have a much easier road with only Jamaal Wiliams to tangle with. The other reason is that many people feel that Ty Mongomery is the best running back in Green Bay. I am not among them, but there is certainly a case to be made.
Montgomery was the starting running back to start the 207 season. A role he relinquished due to a rib injury, not to bad performance. Unfortunately, both Jones and Williams shined in his absence. This made reducing his workload an easy choice for the Packers, making his long-term role unclear.
He enters the season as a likely hybrid player who will do most of his damage on third down. Still, it is possible for Montgomery to show off the skills that earned him the job last year, allowing him to run away with the primary role. I don’t see it though. There is too much competition is Green Bay, and Ty Montgomery seems destined to fill a Theo Riddick type role. The good news is that even with the rising ADP, Montgomery still makes for a decent value in PPR leagues. Just don’t expect too much. (Current ADP: 112.63)
Faller – Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
If Aaron Jones were to win the primary running back job, he could potentially be a Top-5 fantasy running back. He is that good. Unfortunately, a couple of variables are standing in the way of that. First off, Jones is going to start the season serving a short suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse protocol. Secondly, the Packers have made it clear that they intend on implementing a three-man committee at running back. Jones will likely have to split carries with Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery.
After Jones comes back from suspension, he could already be facing tough competition if Williams or Montgomery were to have a strong start. This would limit his value to merely a flex option in the 2018 season. For this reason, the drop is ADP seems like a reasonable result. I would take the falling ADP of Aaron Jones as a gift personally. He is the most talented back in Green Bay and the cream rises to the top. Do not shy away from Jones on draft day and reap the benefits of his lowered perceived value. (Current ADP: 100.33)
Riser – Duke Johnson, Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns have a running back logjam folks. The addition of Carlos Hyde and rookie Nick Chubb have given the Browns a formidable backfield. This is maybe not the best thing for fantasy owners. Still, the logjam should not impact pass-catching Duke Johnson as much. Hyde and Chubb will likely leech from each other’s opportunities, but Johnson has a stranglehold on his role.
This may not be what dynasty players were hoping for, as Johnson is now shut off from being a three-down threat. However, the dual-threat back did such a great job in 2017 that he remains a fantasy stud in PPR formats. If you didn’t notice, Duke Johnson was an RB1 is PPR last season. I’m serious.
Look out for Duke Johnson in the passing game! pic.twitter.com/gS3rYD0rzN
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) July 14, 2018
Savvy fantasy owners noticed the lack of respect Johnson was getting and his ADP has started a steady climb as a result. It is still far too low, to be honest. Johnson is still being drafted behind Jamaal Williams and Rex Burkhead, both of whom have shakier ground to navigate than Johnson. (Current ADP: 94.28)
Faller – LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills
Spoiler alert! LeSean McCoy is in a bit of a situation. Like Winston, we will not get into specifics here. Let’s just say he allegedly may have done some bad things that could lead to a lengthy suspension. This alone is more than enough to move McCoy way down the draft board.
He is also a 30-year-old running back on a bad offense behind a terrible offensive line. An aging back facing possible suspension on a low scoring team that will be coming from behind most of the time? Where do I sign up? Wait, what was that? They are also being led by AJ McCarron or rookie Josh Allen? Terrific.
Folks, if there was a “red flag” counter, I would have run out of red flags. While the possible legal cloud sits over McCoy’s head, he is impossible to invest an earlier draft pick on. Sure, if he is cleared he could be a steal. If nothing else he should be in line for a monster amount of carries and opportunities in the Bills “offense.” Where in the draft are you willing to make that risk? (Current ADP: 20.85)
Wide Receiver ADP
Riser – Robby Anderson, New York Jets
From Week 1 to Week 13 last season, Robby Anderson was a Top-10 wide receiver. Only Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, and Marvin Jones scored more touchdowns than Anderson during that span. He is poised for a major breakout in 218 if he can stay on the field. Anderson’s Achilles heel has always been off-field troubles, which he is still currently facing. While Anderson is likely to avoid a lengthy suspension for a reckless driving misdemeanor, he could still miss a couple games.
The important thing for fantasy owners is that Anderson is the clear number one target on a Jets team that is likely going to be behind is many games. This should lead to some shootout opportunities for Anderson to put up big numbers. If things fall right, you could be looking at a season winning WR1 at his current ADP. (Current ADP: 100.29)
Top 10 by Yards/Route Run from out wide 2017 (min 100 routes):
1. Julio Jones: 3.27
2. Tyreek Hill: 2.97
3. Antonio Brown: 2.86
4. Keenan Allen: 2.75
5. OBJ: 2.64
6. Juju Smith-Schuster: 2.63
7. Nuk Hopkins: 2.6
8. Robby Anderson: 2.5
9. Pierre Garcon: 2.49
10. Adam Thielen: 2.45— Sports Info Solutions (@SportsInfo_SIS) July 18, 2018
Faller – Julian Edelman, New England Patriots
Suspensions seem to be the theme of our first edition of risers and fallers. Edelman, the Patriots WR1, will miss the first four games of the season for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drugs policy. Missing one-quarter of the season will certainly put a dent in a players value. I would not want to presume the exact circumstances that led to Edelman taking the illegal substance. However, I can’t imagine that he will be the same player without the extra help.
It’s entirely possible that Edelman comes back without missing a beat. If that were guaranteed he would still be missing four games, thus lowering his ADP. Who would you rather have? Ten games of Julian Edelman, or 16 games of Devin Funchess, Emmanuel Sanders, and Sammy Watkins? All of those wideouts are going behind the New England wideout right now. Edelman’s ADP is falling and should continue to fall a bit more. (Current ADP: 59.76)
Riser – Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers
In years where both Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb have been healthy, Cobb has finished #6, #19 and #31. They are both healthy now folks. Not only that, but Jordy Nelson is in Oakland. He will be taking his targets from Aaron Rodgers with him.
The Packers did sign tight end Jimmy Graham in free agency, which may take away some red zone opportunities. Especially since Cobb has averaged 10.2 yards per catch with 14 touchdowns and two 100-yard performances in 44 games since 2014. If he requires touchdowns to be an asset in fantasy, then he may be a bust. As the number two wideout on a team captained by the best quarterback in the league, he seems like a good bet at his current ADP. On the whole, this has the makings of a big bounce-back season for Cobb in the Green Bay offense. (Current ADP: 98.24)
Faller – Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Long story short, Mike Evans was the WR20 in 2017. This alone might drive down his ADP in the upcoming season. Add in that his quarterback is going to miss the first three weeks? Now you have a possible stud wide receiver you can get at the end of the second round.
Evans’ 2017 season wasn’t really that bad if you take a look. He still compiled over 1,000 yards receiving with 136 targets Those 136 targets were the second-lowest total in his career, while still ranking as the 11th-most targeted wide receiver in the NFL. Evans also had the seventh most red zone targets in the league, while only ending up with five touchdowns on the season. Evans still has the ability to be your WR1, and if his ADP continues to fall he could be a bargain. (Current ADP: 21.34)
Tight End ADP
Riser – Eric Ebron, Indianapolis Colts
Faller – Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts
Death. Taxes. Eric Ebron getting preseason hype. It’s a continuous cycle that is a guarantee to rear its ugly head this time of year. Fantasy owners are hearing good reports on Andrew Luck and have thoughts of a Gronk/Hernandez tight end tandem in Ebron and Doyle. Well, maybe not that good, but fantasy owners see Ebron as a bargain at his ADP and are willing to pay early in the draft to get him in their lineup.
The truth is that Jack Doyle had a tremendous 2017 that would be hard to duplicate this season. Eric Ebron coming to town does not make that easier. It’s possible the Colts use a combination of two tight end sets that could work (look at what Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen did), but I would not overpay for either tight end due to the timeshare. The fact that Ebron is rising in ADP and Doyle is falling makes perfect sense to me. I still think the guy to grab is Doyle, and if you can get him at a reduced ADP then I am all for it. That being said, the tight end position is rather deep this season, at least after Gronk/Kelce/Ertz. It may make sense to pass on both of the Indianapolis TEs if possible and throw your draft pick in another direction. (Eric Ebron Current ADP: 166.47) (Jack Doyle Current ADP: 111.49)
Ready to amp up your Fantasy Football prep even more? Check out Full 60 Fantasy Football, where Joe Pisapia, Scott Bogman, and The Welsh bring the goods every week.