It’s crunch time personified across fantasy baseball leagues and with offenses around the league seeing noticeable upticks, it’s increasingly important to stay ahead of the game and take advantage of the best sources of fantasy baseball production out of hitters. Welcome back to my Hitting Planner, a matchup-focused look into the hitters and lineups you can Pick (start and trust given their schedule the upcoming week) or Fade (consider sitting, avoiding on the waiver wire due to a rough upcoming week of matchups). All players mentioned will generally be around the threshold of either ownership or starting/sitting for your fantasy team.
As usual, I’ll point out the teams and corresponding players with noticeably poor matchups (the Fades) and noticeably great matchups (the Picks).
Let’s get started with Week 14 (July 5 — July 11). For each team we evaluate, we will note their opponents in italics, including the number of times they play in the week. For this week, stats mentioned from the season until now will be up-to-date as of the end of Friday night games.
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Week 14 Hitting Planner
Fades: Stay Away
Washington Nationals
Opponents: SDP (4), SFG (3)
It almost seems awkward that on July the Fourth, I am pointing out how depleted our nation’s capital is in the baseball team department but that’s the sad truth you need to accept for Week 14 lineups. The Nationals roster is reeling as several members of one of the hottest teams in baseball have gone down with injuries. Most notably, leadoff hitter and blue-hot slugger Kyle Schwarber has entered the injured list. With the losses to an already-shallow Nationals lineup, the remaining hitters are now going to see fewer run-producing opportunities. To make matters worse for them, they face a brutal task ahead in a seven-game California slate.
The Padres and Giants rank first and second, respectively, in ERA and are among the league’s elite in xFIP and SIERA as a pitching staff. The Nationals will face a good bit of both teams’ best arms, including Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Anthony DeSclafani, and Kevin Gausman, and will do so completely on the road. As the road team this season, the Nationals slash .247/.322/.395, slightly worse than their splits at home.
Start Juan Soto, arguably the best hitter in baseball. Start speed demon and underrated bat Trea Turner if he’s healthy. Otherwise, don’t bother with Nationals bats this week; they’re a waste of a roster spot in weekly formats against these matchups.
Miami Marlins
Opponents: LAD (4), ATL (3)
The Marlins are one of the most strikeout-prone lineups in baseball. They have talent and a certain power upside when things are going well but that shouldn’t be realized against this 7-game slate. The Dodgers are missing a high-end starter due to an ongoing investigation but they still have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball and will send their best to the mound to start against Miami this week. Facing Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urias, and Clayton Kershaw, the Marlins should be striking out in bulk and producing runs inefficiently.
To finish out the week, the Marlins will host their division rival Atlanta Braves; a middle-of-the-pack staff overall, the Braves can definitely be susceptible to giving up the walk or the longball. However, the Atlanta starters are exactly who they need to keep Miami’s offense stifled. On Friday, the Marlins will face Kyle Muller, who struck out seven and gave up just three runs in 5.2 innings vs. Miami on July 3. On Saturday, they will face 2019 AL Cy Young finalist Charlie Morton, who claims a 3.74 ERA and 10.4 K/9 this season. On Sunday, they will face 2020 NL MVP vote-getter Max Fried, who has posted a 2.63 ERA with a .597 OPS against in his last four starts.
It is also noteworthy that the Marlins possess discouraging splits against left-handed pitchers; they have hit at a mere .667 OPS (ranked #28 in MLB) and 86 wRC+ (ranked #26 in MLB) against southpaws this season. Four of the seven starters they are scheduled to face this week are left-handed. Instead of guessing where the offense might come from this week, only play Marlins bats if you absolutely must due to draft capital and/or a shallow set of options off the waiver wire.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Opponents: ATL (3), NYM (4)
I don’t often mention the Pittsburgh Pirates but when I do it’s because their few fantasy-relevant players are making the headlines in the hitting planner. That’s exactly the case here with Adam Frazier, Bryan Reynolds, and Ke’Bryan Hayes, the only fantasy lineup mainstays on Pittsburgh’s roster. While the trio of Pirates hitters have put up good numbers when they’ve played in 2021, there isn’t much reason to anticipate big production this week with the guys they face on the mound.
While the Braves do provide a stiff challenge for three games in Pittsburgh, the real killer for the Pirates’ week has to be their four-game set in Citi Field. The Mets, as a pitching staff, rank top five in MLB in ERA, xFIP, SIERA, and strikeout rate. This is heavily due to the dominance of their rotation, led by their 1-2-3 punch of Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, and Marcus Stroman, all of whom get to participate in the series against the weak Pirates offense.
Avoid any Pirates bats you have for the upcoming week, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.
Picks: Buy-In
Boston Red Sox
Opponents: LAA (3), PHI (3)
The Red Sox are one of the hottest teams in baseball; they’ve been doing many things right, one of which being driving in runs in bulk thanks to the meat of their order. With several fantasy-relevant studs on the roster, which ones might come in handy during Week 14? The answer: many of them!
The Red Sox start off their week with a three-game set against the Angels, a group that ranks middle-of-the-pack in ERA, xFIP, and SIERA as a pitching staff. Boston’s potent offense will have to contend with MVP candidate Shohei Ohtani on the mound in the third game of the series but that shouldn’t detract you from realizing how much they can take advantage of the rest of the week. The Red Sox finish off Week 14 with a 3-game interleague series against the Phillies, who are scheduled to start Vince Velasquez, Matt Moore, and Aaron Nola for the weekend at Fenway Park. Simply none of these situations should frighten the Boston bats, whose .792 OPS and 108 wRC+ at Fenway Park both rank amongst the top 10 home offenses in MLB.
If you’re scared of the Aaron Nola matchup on Sunday, the Red Sox’s 11-3 win in Philadelphia in May should change your mind. In that meeting, Nola gave up 7 hits and 4 earned runs in just 5 innings pitched.
Of course, you must start All-Stars Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts and likely All-Star J.D. Martinez. Those are the draft capital monsters that must never leave your lineup. But have some faith in a rebound week from Alex Verdugo. Ride the hot streaks of everyday players Enrique Hernandez and Hunter Renfroe. If you’re having trouble at catcher, count on a possible power surge from Christian Vazquez. And if you’re running low on more infielders, buy into the power of Bobby Dalbec, the versatility of Marwin Gonzalez and the return of the surprise mini-breakout campaign of Christian Arroyo, who will likely return to the team from the injured list early next week.
Chicago White Sox
Opponents: MIN (3), BAL (3)
I’m sticking with the power of the Sox to round out this week’s hitting planner. Granted, the White Sox offense has taken some hits recently with the downfall and demotion of Yermin Mercedes and the injuries to Yoan Moncada and Nick Madrigal. Yet, there’s still a decent amount of offensive talent and fantasy baseball assets to take advantage of in their lineup, including reigning AL MVP Jose Abreu, who has to be the most automatic lineup lock of your week.
The matchups are juicy for everybody, however. As a pitching staff, the Minnesota Twins rank in the bottom 10 in MLB in ERA, xFIP, SIERA, and strikeout rate. Their starters for the week will be the talented Jose Berrios and the more-mundane Bailey Ober and J.A. Happ. On the season, these three arms have combined for a gaudy 12.57 ERA and 2.276 WHIP against the White Sox.
To finish the week, the White Sox offense’s week likely gets even better, getting to beat up on one of our favorite punching bags of the Hitting Planner series. The Orioles have been consistently incapable of locking down offenses; like the Twins, this season, the Baltimore pitching staff ranks in the bottom 10 in MLB in ERA, xFIP, SIERA, and strikeout rate.
It’s simple—the White Sox can still hit and in Week 14, they could go berserk; make sure you don’t miss out. Besides Abreu, make sure you start Tim Anderson, on-base merchant Yasmani Grandal, the versatility and power upside of Andrew Vaughn if need be, and in deeper leagues, utility man Leury Garcia.
For more great Fantasy Baseball check out Mick Ciallela’s Rest of Season Rankings! Mick was the No. 1 Ranker on FantasyPros.com for the 2020 MLB season.
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