Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve written two articles about late-round pitchers. After focusing on late-round pitchers for standard roto leagues and then late-round pitchers for points leagues, I wanted to go further into the player pool and cater to managers who play in a deep league.
A “deep league” can vary widely based on the number of managers, roster construction, and platform, but in this article, I’ll focus on average draft position from about 300 through 600. That would cover rounds 26 to 50 in a 12-team draft, or rounds 21 to 40 in a 15-teamer.
That’s the sweet spot here at Fantrax. Our Classic public leagues, both points and roto, are traditionally 30 rounds deep. In addition to customization, we also offer Best Ball leagues. They cover 40 rounds. So this article is ideally suited for late-round pitchers to target in that range.
One note on deep-league strategy: keep in mind that the deeper into the player pool you go, the less likely you are to find suitable replacements on the waiver wire throughout the season. So while you’re still shooting for upside at the end of your draft, you might want to balance your choices with some stability. Most especially true in a Best Ball league where there are no transactions during the season. With that in mind, all late-round pitchers on this list either have a confirmed spot in the rotation heading into Spring Training, or at least have the inside track. I haven’t included any speculative prospects. It’s still super early, of course, so this list could look very different in just a couple of months. Stay tuned.
10 Late-Round Pitchers to Target
Griffin Canning SP Angels ADP 325
2023: 7-8 127IP 139K 4.32 ERA 1.24 WHIP
Considering he hadn’t pitched for a season and a half (injury), Griffon Canning had a successful 2023 campaign. OK, the ratios weren’t eye-popping (4.32 ERA/1.24 WHIP), but the expected stats were much better (4.01 xERA/3.82 xFIP). Plus, the 27-year-old set career-high marks in K/9 (9.85), BB/9 (2.55), and innings pitched (127). He was particularly effective in the 2nd half of the season, striking out 68 over his final 53 innings. Can the righty continue his swing-and-miss advancements in 2024 or perhaps take a step forward with his slider (34% whiff rate)? With an ADP well above 300 and a spot in the Angels’ rotation, he might be able to return deep-league value even if the answer is no. Seems like a good high-floor pick if you’ve neglected pitching and need one more solid starter. Or perhaps in a Best Ball league where you’re looking to minimize risk.
Edward Cabrera SP Marlins ADP 346
2023: 7-7 99.2IP 118K 4.24 ERA 1.44 WHIP
Ever take a look at Edward Cabrera’s Statcast page? Don’t worry, I’ll sum it up for you: a cacophony of red colors surrounding a dark blue dot. The red tells us how dominant the 25-year-old can be, while the lone blip pretty much tells us why he’s only achieved it on rare occasions. The blue, of course, is the walks. Last season, the righty ranked in the 1st percentile in walk rate (15.2%) and his BB/9 was an ugly 5.96. Can the kid find some control to complement his impressive 10.06 career K/9 rate and fastball velocity that ranks in the 86th percentile? I’d sure be willing to bet my last pick in a 30-round draft on it. In a Best Ball league where you don’t want as much risk, maybe move to the next name. The Marlins could get sick of waiting.
Louie Varland SP Twins ADP 367
2023: 4-3 68IP 71K 4.63 ERA 1.22 WHIP
A series of injuries allowed the Twins to give Louie Varland a crack at the starting rotation early in 2023. After the first seven turns through, the results were pretty good (3.51 ERA/1.15 WHIP/8.56 K/9). The last three (17 earned runs in 15 innings), however, made his demotion back to the minors an easy call. He’d come back to the bigs as a reliever down the stretch and was so good (2 earned runs in 12 innings with 17 strikeouts) that they started using the righty in high-leverage situations. Even twice in the playoffs. He’d probably stay in the pen if not for the loss of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda to free agency. But now, in 2024, it looks like he’s a favorite for the fifth starter role. Will his fastball keep touching 99 miles per hour like it did out of the pen? We could dream. But we’re hoping he can find a way to harness that bullpen success. Lucky for us, his ADP would keep him undrafted even in a Fantrax 30-round league. Might be time to change that.
Luis Severino SP Mets ADP 399
2023: 4-8 89.1IP 79K 6.65 ERA 1.65 WHIP
There’s really no way to sugarcoat it, Luis Severino has earned his current ADP. Injuries have mounted for the righty the last few seasons and finally, in 2023, the results weren’t there even when he was on the mound. These late-round pitchers are all about upside, however, and up until very recently, effectiveness was never the issue (2022: 3.18 ERA 1.00 WHIP 9.88 K/9 2.65 BB/9). And his velocity is still a major strength (ranked 88th percentile last season). Can we just say the veteran was thrown off by a lat injury suffered in Spring Training and then never fully adjusted to the new pitching rules (clock, pickoff moves, etc.)? That’s what I’ll say here. I’ll also add that his new home (even though he probably didn’t need to sell his house) is a much better environment for pitchers. Park Factors rank Citi Field 3rd best. So he seems like a worthy very late-round target. If he stinks the first couple of times out, no problem dropping him.
Chase Silseth SP/RP Angels ADP 481
2023: 4-1 52.1IP 56K 3.96 ERA 1.28 WHIP
Due to injuries, the Angels gave Chase Silseth a shot in their starting rotation in July of last year. His seven starts in that role went really well. He compiled a 3.21 ERA (3.43 xFIP), a 1.10 WHIP, and struck out 41 over 33.2 innings. This peaked with a dominant August performance against the Mariners when he set career highs in innings pitched (7), swinging strikes (21), and strikeouts (12). Sadly, the 23-year-old missed the last month of the season with a concussion (he did make a final start during the last week). But that injury, along with the possibility that the Angels make an off-season pitching signing, have kept the righty deep in late-round pitchers territory. In a league where your draft is early, he’d make a perfect last pick. Once Spring Training starts, word might get out.
Logan Allen SP Guardians ADP 508
2023: 7-8 125.1IP 119K 3.81 ERA 1.40 WHIP
Despite an early ADP that would leave him out of even the deepest of drafts, Logan Allen showed he belonged in the big leagues in 2023. His early-season prowess was particularly impressive when he allowed three runs or fewer over his first eight starts. And the overall numbers were pretty decent too (3.81 ERA and a 8.55 K/9 rate). Sure, he isn’t getting the Tanner Bibee or Gavin Williams sort of love (because his Statcast numbers are pedestrian), but as of now a rotation spot seems likely. And although he doesn’t have one dominant pitch (his 91.4 mph fastball velo ranks in the 14th percentile), he has a five-pitch arsenal that could certainly take a step forward in his age-25 season. The lefty’s also got a 145-inning season under his belt now, too, so a full workload could very well make him a points-league asset. Especially if that hefty 3.5 BB/9 rate comes closer to his 2.9 in the minors. Late-round pitchers can’t be perfect, but the cost here is nothing.
Alek Manoah SP Blue Jays ADP 540
2023: 3-9 87.1IP 79K 5.87 ERA 1.74 WHIP
Pretty amazing that at this time last year, Alek Manoah was a fifth-round pick across most draft boards. Even though his peripherals never quite matched the results (2.24 ERA vs. 3.31 xERA and 3.97 xFIP in 2022) no one could have predicted his current ADP. It would put him in the 45th round of 12-team leagues! That tends to happen when you post a 5.87/1.74 ERA/WHIP over 87.1 innings. There’s no way to make that sound better. He was bad. No one really knows why, either. But at this stage in the draft take a look around. Are there any other 26-year-old late-round pitchers with a rotation spot that is theirs to lose and who just a year ago finished third in Cy Young voting? You don’t have to look around. The answer is no. The upside is enormous. And the price is zero. We’ll know a lot more during Spring Training. If he looks anything like 2022 Manoah, his ADP will skyrocket. If your draft is before then, get in on the ground floor.
Trevor Rogers SP Marlins ADP 543
2023: 1-2 18IP 19K 4.00 ERA 1.22 WHIP
Was anyone else excited to see if Trevor Rogers would bounce back after a rough season in 2022? I know I was. The changeup (37.8% whiff rate in a small sample size) looked more like the 2021 version that led to his wonderful 2.64 ERA/1.15 WHIP/10.62 K/9. Sadly, though, the bicep in his throwing arm flared up during just his fourth start of 2023. And then during rehab, he tore the lat muscle on his non-throwing side. It would ultimately end his season. So now fast forward to 2024 and the 26-year-old has stated that he’s fully healthy, is lined up to be the Marlins’ fifth starter, and seemingly still has all the skills that made him a Rookie-of-the-Year runner-up. And the best part: he’s way under the radar. You could probably get him with your last pick in a 30-round Fantrax draft, or even at the end of a Best Ball draft that goes 40 rounds.
James Paxton SP Free Agent ADP 545
2023: 7-5 96IP 101K 4.50 ERA 1.31 WHIP
The return of James Paxton was one of the fun stories of 2023. After not pitching for essentially two full seasons, his velocity returned to pre-injury levels and his curveball was back to generating a 38% whiff rate. If you exclude his last three starts, when a knee injury prevented him from “finishing pitches,” he compiled a 3.34 ERA/1.14 WHIP with a 9.96 K/9 rate. Conclusion: Big Maple’s still got it. The only question is health. That’s the reason, combined with not actually having a team yet, why the 35-year-old is not being drafted higher. Considering he held up well in Fenway Park, ranked 2nd-most difficult for pitchers according to Park Factor, he has the potential to be a nice bargain wherever he lands. His ability to go deep into games (11 of his 19 starts were either 6+ innings or 100+ pitches) makes him an ideal candidate for points leagues. Just make sure you’ve got IL spots.
Jose Quintana SP Mets ADP 586
2023: 3-6 75.2IP 60K 3.57 ERA 1.31 WHIP
If you’re at the end of your 40-round Fantrax Head-to-Head Points League draft, you might want to consider Jose Quintana. His 3.57 ERA last season, combined with wonderful hard-hit metrics (70th percentile average exit velocity, 88th hard-hit rate, 87th barrel rate) proves the 34-year-old can still be effective. Sure, the veteran has had his share of injuries lately. An oblique strain requiring surgery on his rib kept him out until July just last season. But when you consider that the lefty was able to throw at least six innings in nine of his 13 starts, and went five or more in all but one, and that Mets will depend on him to eat innings, he could very well be a points-league asset all season. Especially in leagues that directly reward Quality Starts (like Fantrax). Not bad upside for a guy who’d be available even in the late rounds of a Best Ball draft.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.