Welcome back. Let’s talk about Fall for a moment. This season is the transition from the bright sunny days of summer to the cold gloomy days of winter. Let’s talk for a moment about how that translates to your fantasy teams in season-long. I know most of you are experiencing this as well with your fantasy teams. Way back in August you were full of pride in your amazing draft and hope for the upcoming season, you know those bright sunny days. Now that week 13 approaches many of you are gloomy either fighting for a playoff spot or even completely out.
Well, do I have news for you! Just switch to DFS. Every week is a new week and you get to set a new lineup. It will easily pick you up and make you cheery through the holiday season. Let me help you with that too. Right here, right now. Just read through the Money Makers and the Heartbreakers. At the very least I promise it will be enjoyable.
Have a great weekend!
Week 13 is waiting on us. So, let’s get to Money Makers and Heart Breakers for the Week 13 NFL DFS Main Slate. And don’t forget, you can also use these insights as sit/start advice for your weekly lineups.
Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone that might be new:
💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations
💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations
Week 13 NFL DFS
💰 Money Makers
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa – The Dolphins are playing the Commanders in Week 13. The Commanders give up the most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Quarterbacks average 277 yards and 2 touchdowns a game against the Commanders. In 10 out of 12 games this season the Commanders have given up 300 yards and/or multiple touchdowns. This is the easiest match up Tua has seen in weeks. Let’s put it this way Tommy DeVito passed for 246 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 11. Big game coming from Tua in Week 13.
$7,900 on DraftKings
$8,400 on FanDuel
Brock Purdy – In Week 12 Purdy was game scripted out at the Niners crushed the Seahawks. The Eagles are up in Week 13. It is unlikely this will be that kind of game. The Eagles are the class of the NFC right now. The Eagles also give up the second most fantasy points to opposing teams quarterbacks. You have to throw to stay in the game. Brock Purdy has excelled when playing teams that give up lots of fantasy points to quarterbacks, multiple touchdowns in each game against a bottom-10 defense. This is looking very Purdy to me, 300 yards and multiple touchdowns for Brock.
$6,100 on DraftKings
$7,800 on FanDuel
Derek Carr – The over-under for this game against the Lions is 46 points. Carr has passed for over 300 yards or multiple touchdowns in 4 of the last 5 games. He is missing his wide receivers in this one. I do think the Saints will have to pass to stay with the Lions. The Lions also are the 6th friendliest team to quarterback in fantasy. So if you are looking to pay down Carr will be a viable play.
$5,600 on DraftKings
$7,000 on FanDuel
Other Quarterback DFS Picks for Week 13
Russell Wilson
$5,700 on DraftKings
$7,400 on FanDuel
Kenny Pickett
$5,100 on DraftKings
$6,700 on FanDuel
CJ Stroud
$8,100 on DraftKings
$8,000 on FanDuel
Running Backs
Devin Singletary – The Texans play the Broncos in Week 13. This game has one of the highest over/under on the main slate at 47 points. Singletary has been on a tear, with double-digit fantasy scores in the last 3 games. To top it off the Broncos give up the most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. The running back position averages 133 yards and a touchdown rushing as well as 5 receptions and 41 yards receiving. If you are concerned that Dameon Pierce is back, last week Singletary outsnapped him with 82% of the snaps.
$5,900 on DraftKings
$7,000 on FanDuel
Najee Harris – Jaylen Warren was named the starter but that appears to have lit a fire under Najee. While splitting time with Warren in Week 12 Najee led the backfield in snaps and production with 15 carries for 99 yards and a touchdown. The Steelers play the Cardinals who love letting running backs do whatever they want. 14 different running backs have double-digit fantasy scores against the Cardinals this season. Every single week they have given up a double-digit fantasy score to a running back. I like both Najee and Jaylen Warren this week
$5,200 on DraftKings
$7,200 on FanDuel
Rachaad White – For the season White is third in receptions for running backs. He has 43 receptions; he also only has 46 targets. The guy catches everything thrown at him with that 93% catch rate. This gets even better because the Buccaneers are playing the Panthers in Week 13. The Panthers give up the third most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. You can expect White to continue the high volume in a great situation this week. This will be the seventh straight game that White surpasses 12 or more fantasy points.
$6,300 on DraftKings
$7,500 on FanDuel
Other Running Back DFS Picks for Week 13
Rhamondre Stevenson
$6,000 on DraftKings
$7,300 on FanDuel
Bijan Robinson
$6,700 on DraftKings
$8,100 on FanDuel
Derrick Henry
$6,800 on DraftKings
$8,200 on FanDuel
Wide Receivers
Brandon Aiyuk – Do you know who gives up the most fantasy points to wide receivers? It is the Eagles. The Eagles just also happen to be who the Niners are playing in Week 13. Aiyuk has 25% of the Niners target share and a whopping 44% of the air yards. Wide receivers average 196 yards and 1.5 touchdowns a week against the Eagles. I can’t control how excited I am to play Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel this week. I am going to do the Aiyuk shuffle. Hey Moe, Hey Moe, Aiyuk, Aiyuk, Aiyuk.
$7,200 on DraftKings
$8,000 on FanDuel
Tyreek Hill – Is it possible to like the Dolphins passing game and not like Tyreek Hill? Hill has a 33% target share and 44% air yards share of the Dolphins passing game. This guy already has 1324 yards and 10 touchdowns receiving on the season. And guess what? In Week 13 he gets to play against the Commanders. The Commanders give up the second most fantasy points to wide receivers. This could be an epic explosion game for Hill. This is a Hill I am willing to die on.
$9,600 on DraftKings
$10,000 on FanDuel
Greg Dortch –The Cardinals will be playing the Steelers in Week 13. The Steelers are a bottom-10 defense at defending wide receivers. In the past 2 games, Dorth has seen 17 targets. That was a 23% target share over those 2 games. If Michael Wilson misses Week 13 I am playing Dortch everywhere I can. He will see the volume in that scenario and Dortch has produced in this situation in the past. He is a low-cost, potentially high-volume play for Week 13.
$3,700 on DraftKings
$5,200 on FanDuel
Other Wide Receiver DFS Picks for Week 13
Ju-Ju Smith Schuster
$3,200 on DraftKings
$5,400 on FanDuel
Adam Thielen
$6,600 on DraftKings
$7,000 on FanDuel
Michael Pittman
$7,100 on DraftKings
$7,900 on FanDuel
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz – The Broncos are up for the Texans in Week 13. The Broncos give up the most points to opposing teams’ tight ends. Schultz saw only 2 targets in Week 12. Schultz has a 16% target share for the Texans. He also is tied for second on the team in receiving touchdowns with 5. The match-up is right, his quarterback trusts him. I expect a bounce-back game this week against the Broncos. The match-up could not be better.
$5,000 on DraftKings
$6,200 on FanDuel
David Njoku – This is a pick for a solid play. Njoku is a solid play at tight end in Week 13 against the Rams. Njoku has a 21% target share on the season and a 33% target share in the past two games. Include here that the Rams give up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing teams tight ends and I am in on Njoku being put in a position to succeed this week. I am noy Njokuing around on this one.
$4,100 on DraftKings
$5,600 on FanDuel
Tyler Conklin – Before you throw up in your mouth please hear me out on this one. Conklin is second on the Jets in target share with 14%. He is also second on the Jets with receptions and receiving yards. Now the opponent for Week 13 is the Falcons. The Falcons by the way give up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends. Are you picking up what I am putting down here. Conklin is in a great spot to produce in Week 13.
$3,000 on DraftKings
$4,900 on FanDuel
Other Tight Ends DFS Picks for Week 13
Adam Trautman
$2,900 on DraftKings
$4,600 on FanDuel
Hunter Henry
$3,100 on DraftKings
$5,100 on FanDuel
Taysom Hill
$5,200 on DraftKings
$6,500 on FanDuel
Defense
Dolphins – The Dolphins are playing the Commanders in Week 13. Over the past 4 games, the Commanders have given up a total of 14 sacks, 5 interceptions, 5 fumble recoveries, and 2 defensive touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ defense slapped around the Jets in Week 12 with 7 sacks 2 interceptions, and a defensive touchdown. This game looks like a high sack total for the Dolphins again in Week 13 as the Commanders have given up the most sacks in the NFL. Poor Sam Howell.
$3,900 on DraftKings
$5,000 on FanDuel
Colts – The Colts struggle to beat the Titans. The Colts’ defense though has 3 straight games in which they have scored double-digit fantasy points. During this time they have 25 sacks, 6 interceptions, a fumble recovery, and 2 defensive touchdowns. They are clicking on all cylinders and should be getting some pressure on Will Levis. I like the Colts to be able to get you between 8 to 10 fantasy points this week.
$3,200 on DraftKings
$4,500 on FanDuel
Rams – The Rams are playing the Browns in Week 13. The past 3 weeks the Browns have given up 9 sacks, a safety, 2 interceptions, 4 fumbles, and a defensive touchdown. The Rams’ defense has not been spectacular but the Browns offense with PJ Walker or Dorian Thompson-Robinson is just a turnover machine.
$3,700 on DraftKings
$3,700 on FanDuel
💔Heart Breakers
Quarter Backs
Matthew Stafford –The way to score fantasy points for a quarterback against the Brown is with your legs. This is not something we will see from Stafford. The Browns give up the fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. This looks like a heavy dose of Kyren Williams again in Week 13.
Baker Mayfield – The Buccaneers play the Panthers in Week 13. The Panthers give up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Baker has been a very steady player this season, never amazing but never horrible. In Week 13 the Buccaneers will turn to Rachaad White, and White will produce big time.
Desmond Ridder – You know sometimes I like a layup. Ridder is my layup this week. The Jets are tough against the pass and let’s face it Ridder isn’t great. If any of you were contemplating playing Ridder even out of desperation I think I would make an appointment at the head doctor.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey – No, not again Mike. Putting the best player in fantasy as a heartbreaker? What is wrong with you? I know this is what you thought, maybe with words like idiot in there as well. If you are playing season-long long by all means play CMC. I am. In DFS I am not though. I have no desire to pay up for the running back that is playing against the defense that funnels teams to the pass.
Breece Hall – The Jets play the Falcons in Week 13. The Falcons are another defense that funnels to the pass. The Falcons give up the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs, right behind the Eagles. So if you are playing Garrett Wilson rejoice. Breece Hall will be airing this game as a grievance this year at Festivus for sure.
D’Andre Swift – The Niners have an amazing defense. They defend running backs exceptionally well. They are the fourth-stingiest team when it comes to running backs scoring fantasy points. Only 5 running backs have hit double-digit fantasy points against the Niners this season. D’Andre will not look so swift this week.
Wide Receivers
Drake London – The Falcons play the Jets in Week 13. The Jets give up the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Let’s face it Arthur Smith doesn’t want to throw the ball all that much as well. This gives him a reason to not pass in Week 13.
Cooper Kupp – But he is Cooper Kupp! What has he done lately? He has let you down lately, that is what he has done. Also, in Week 13 the Rams play the Browns and they give up the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Kupp will continue his lack of production and make it 6 straight weeks of single-digit fantasy points. Yuck!
Amon-Ra St. Brown – I love the sun god. I would bet he finds his way to 12 fantasy points. In season-long leagues he is a play, I don’t know if I would ever sit him. The matchup is tough in Week 13. The Saints give up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. I just don’t want to pay up for a guy who doesn’t look like he can blow up in Week 13 in DFS. I broke my own heart writing this.
Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee – Higbee was hyper-efficient in Week 12. He caught everything thrown his way and scored 2 touchdowns. If it feels like you are chasing fantasy points to play him in Week 13, that is because you are. He has 2 touchdowns on the season both were scored last week. Do not chase that, especially against the Browns’ defense which is the toughest against tight ends.
Gerald Everett – Everett is another player where if you got excited and want to plug him in for this week it feels like chasing last week’s production. Because that is what you are doing. Everett’s target share is low even with the injuries at wide receiver. The Patriots also defend tight ends exceptionally well. The combination of tough opponent and lack of volume is good enough for me to go all out and avoid.
NOTE: Tight end has been a tough spot to find success in 2023. There are so many easy players to call out as not producing here that I check myself at 2 because I could write about 15 with ease every week.
Thanks for checking out Money Maker and Heart Breakers. For more great content from Fantrax, follow us on X and @MikeReedyFF for more great content
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