Week 11 Fantasy Football: Dynasty Buys and Sells
Running back carousels continue to spin as a few top-scoring running backs last week were likely free agents in many dynasty leagues or weren’t started, with names like Rex Burkhead, Kalen Ballage, and Salvon Ahmed all scoring as fantasy RB2s or better in Week 10. As this unpredictable season progresses, it’s time to begin looking ahead to the fantasy playoffs. Here are a couple of dynasty buys and sells to target in your leagues, but keep in mind the other team’s current situation when initiating trade talks.
All the first-round rookie picks in the world won’t help you acquire Alvin Kamara if the other dynasty GM is contending for a title, and don’t attempt to sell veteran contributors like Julio Jones to teams clearly in a rebuild and not in position to vie for a championship this year.
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Week 11 Dynasty Buys
It might shock some to find out that Cole Beasley is the No. 20 fantasy wide receiver in PPR formats through 10 weeks. Beasley had been incredibly consistent through Week 7, scoring at least 9.8 fantasy points in every contest, until a couple of rough outings against the Patriots and Seahawks in Week 8 and Week 9.
With Beasley working in as the no. 3 option in the passing game behind John Brown, it’s no surprise that Beasley’s production has been boosted when Brown has missed games due to injury in Week 5 against the Titans and in Week 7 against the Jets. Now with Brown expected to miss multiple weeks due to a high ankle sprain, Beasley could provide the much-needed help for some dynasty teams to make a playoff push over the next few weeks.
The Bills rank as the sixth-best passing offense in the league thus far on the year, and Beasley has generally faced easier matchups due to playing over 86 percent of his snaps from the slot this season. Contending teams in need of help at wide receiver or at flex should target Beasley as a dynasty buy at the price of a mid or late second-round rookie pick or less. He can be a strong WR2 fill-in over the next few games for as long as Brown is out, and Beasley could be a viable flex play in the fantasy playoffs even if Brown is back at that point.
Like Beasley, Josh Reynolds is a no. 3 receiver for his offense, and as a result, he’s being overlooked by many dynasty players. It’s understandable given Reynolds’s lack of production over the last few years, but it seems that his role may be evolving on the Rams’ offense, making him one of the best cheap dynasty buys right now.
Since Week 6 against Chicago, Reynolds has eclipsed Robert Woods in target share, and most recently in Week 10, Reynolds led the team in routes run, targets, receptions, and receiving yards in their win over the Seahawks. Cooper Kupp playing through a wrist injury factors into Reynolds’s newfound role, but his usage was trending up even prior to Kupp’s injury. And while Reynolds has only scored two touchdowns this year, he leads the team with a 33 percent end-zone target share, suggesting that he could yet have untapped scoring potential if the Rams’ passing offense can improve on their efficiency.
Either way, Reynolds is a decent flex play going forward as long as he can maintain his recent increase in usage in the Rams’ passing offense, as he’s quietly averaged a 78 percent snap share on offense since Week 5. Plus, Los Angeles faces three bottom-10 secondaries in the Patriots, Jets, and Seahawks during the fantasy playoffs, making Reynolds a long-shot potential league-winner. Most dynasty GMs wrote off Reynolds as “just a guy” a year or two ago after failing to contribute much, so it’s possible that Reynolds can be acquired for an early third-round rookie pick or less. He may even be available on the waiver wire in some shallower dynasty formats.
Week 10 Dynasty Buys Revisited:
J.D. McKissic and Jakobi Meyers were the Week 10 dynasty buys recommended. McKissic continues to dominate targets out of the backfield from check-down king Alex Smith. As mentioned in last week’s article, McKissic could be a PPR flex or even RB2 for the rest of the season given his target volume, and contending teams in need of help at running back should definitely look to acquire him.
As for Meyers, he too had another good game against the Ravens, even contributing a passing touchdown on a trick play. Even once Julian Edelman returns, it’s possible that Meyers has shown enough to continue serving as the no. 1 wide receiver for the Patriots. He remains among the cheapest dynasty buys to return flex or WR3 production with added upside over the next season and a half.
Week 11 Dynasty Sells
After Drew Brees exited the game due to injury against the 49ers last week, Jameis Winston played the second half and was able to maintain the lead and secure a win. With Brees now expected to miss multiple weeks, Winston’s dynasty value has been somewhat revived, but dynasty teams would be foolhardy in thinking that he can sustain this value long-term. Many considered Winston among the value dynasty buys this past offseason following a report that he’d undergone LASIK eye surgery to fix his nearsightedness.
Perhaps some of his errant throws and interceptions over the course of his career could be attributed to his previously poor eyesight, but many of them were due to poor reads and inaccurate passes which cannot be explained away. While a more constrained version of the offense could limit Winston’s turnovers over the next few weeks, there’s not much to suggest that Winston will show a marked improvement from his prior turnover-filled quarterback play.
Long-term, some are also considering Winston the heir-apparent to Brees if the future Hall-of-Famer retires after this year, but the Saints are in an incredibly precarious salary cap situation. With Taysom Hill already signed for over $12 million in 2021, it’s dubious to expect New Orleans to also extend Winston, who is slated to be a free agent after 2020. The more-likely scenario is that while Winston is the better backup for the current offense created with Brees in mind for a Super Bowl run, Sean Payton would create a new offensive scheme centered around Hill’s dual-threat ability if Brees retires after this season. For teams who don’t need Winston to contend, he should be a priority sell for just about anything in 1QB formats and any second-round rookie pick or better in superflex or 2QB formats.
This one should be fairly obvious, but some dynasty teams may have the blinders on after more than 200 yards and three touchdowns for Marquez Valdes-Scantling over the last two weeks. Despite Allen Lazard missing the last six games after undergoing a core muscle repair surgery, Valdes-Scantling has been inconsistent filling in for Lazard as the no. 2 receiver behind Davante Adams, having failed to record more than 50 receiving yards outside of the last two weeks.
In fact, Valdes-Scantling leads the league in drops with seven, and his career-high 149-yard game last week came against a Jaguars secondary that ranks second-worst against the pass. Green Bay has activated Lazard off injured reserve this week, and even if he still needs another week or two of rehab, Valdes-Scantling is unlikely to produce before Lazard returns, having to face the Colts and Bears in the next two games, both of whom defend well against opposing wide receivers.
In Week 1 when both Adams and Lazard were healthy, Valdes-Scantling played on just 54 percent of the offensive snaps. The expectation of Lazard resuming his duties as the no. 2 receiver behind Adams upon his return leaves few targets and inconsistent production, if any, for Valdes-Scantling. Dynasty GMs would be wise to shop Valdes-Scantling for any third-round rookie pick while he still has some value following back-to-back productive games over the last couple of weeks.
Week 10 Dynasty Sells Revisited:
Curtis Samuel and Breshad Perriman were the Week 10 dynasty sells recommended. Samuel struggled to produce against Tampa Bay, as did the entire Carolina offense. While he is still a boom-or-bust WR3 or flex for fantasy purposes with decent weekly upside, the sell recommendation for an early second-round rookie pick or better stands.
As for Perriman, we’ll see if he continues to show some flashes with Joe Flacco expected to start again coming out of the Jets’ bye, but it’s unlikely that Perriman will be a consistent fantasy producer in the Jets’ bottom-five passing offense. Teams should sell for any late-round rookie pick while Perriman holds any dynasty value.
Like Meng’s Week 11 Dynasty Buys and Sells? Check out the rest of our Week 11 Fantasy Football lineup!
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