I previously wrote the first piece of this series discussing when to draft Bobby Witt Jr. in dynasty leagues. Unlike many other seasons, there are several top prospects that are coming off the board early in fantasy drafts. This article looks at a player from one of the hardest positions to draft: catcher. There always seems to be a large drop-off after the first tier of catchers. If you do not draft one of the elite players, you are left trying to find diamonds in the rough. Their value is hard to put a price tag on because they do not play 140+ games like most positions. They typically play between 100 and 120 games which caps their value. This poses the question: How early is too early to draft a player referred to as a generational talent, but who plays catcher?
Next up on this series discussing prospects in dynasty leagues is Adley Rutschman.
Adley Rutschman- C Baltimore Orioles
2021 Minor League Stats:
| GP | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | BB% | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 0.285 | 0.502 | 0.899 | 23 | 14.5% | 3 |
Points Leagues
According to NFBC draft data, Adley Rutschman is currently going off the board as C9. You can check out the rest of the ADP here! Compared to many in the industry, I am high on Adley for 2022. In my rankings I have him ranked sixth in terms of total points and fifth in terms of points per plate appearance. While his 2022 stats compare favorably to his ADP, his ADP is weighted down by going later in redraft formats. My colleague Eric Cross looks at Adley in an article he wrote earlier in the off-season. This article is going to focus on when managers in dynasty leagues should take Adley Rutschman. I will break down each strategy from a win-now to a rebuild mindset below:
Drafting Adley Rutschman to win now:
Drafting top prospects is often contradicting to a win-now team. Although Adley Rutschman is the consensus top prospect across baseball, figuring out the best time to draft him is extremely difficult. This is compounded by the position that he plays. Playing catcher already caps the number of games possible for him to play as it is rare for catchers to play more than 120 games. Established catchers typically play around that amount, and the numbers are even lower for rookies. Although the Orioles do not currently have any catchers on the 40-man roster, it is unlikely that he will play every day. The one benefit to Rutschman is that he is almost guaranteed to start in the big leagues. Other prospects like Witt could start the season in Triple-A, but it would be shocking to see Adley not break camp with the big league team.
I have Rutschman projected for 108 games in 2022. Among my catcher rankings this ranks 16th. In just 108 games, Adley Rutschman would have to put up phenomenal numbers to be an asset to your team. The scary thing is, that he very well could. In 123 games last season he hit 0.285/0.397/0.502 with 23 home runs. He could be a top 3 catcher in the MLB as soon as he arrives. My projection for Adley has him at 0.271/0.346/0.452. At 24 years old he has the maturity and talent to make a seamless transition to the major leagues.
The only issue with taking Adley in a win-now mode is the price you are going to have to pay. In a recent dynasty mock for CBS Sports, Adley went 39th overall as the top catcher off the board. This, ahead of players like Pete Alonso, Cedric Mullins, and Bryan Reynolds. Top prospects are always shiny and fun to draft. However, at his current price you are passing up on a proven big league player.
Rutschman’s dynasty ADP is primarily concerning due to one specific player going behind him. Will Smith went in this draft at pick 83. Smith, only 26 years old, is one of the best offensive catchers in baseball. Last season Smith played in 130 games and hit 0.258/0.365/0.495. Over the second half he hit 0.266/0.376/0.560. Smith is becoming more and more comfortable at the plate and arguably has as high of a ceiling as Adley does. Smith has already proven that he can play 130 games, hit major league pitching, and is going over 40 picks later. If you are building a team with championship aspirations, there should be no reason to take Adley over Smith at their current values.
The talent that Adley Rutschman possesses is unquestionable. If he was going around Will Smith’s ADP or even a few picks earlier than that I would be comfortable taking him. At his current ADP and with a mindset to win now, I would recommend passing on Adley Rutschman even in dynasty. Not a knock on the player, but sometimes the hype can reach an extreme and I believe this to be the case for Adley in dynasty formats.
Drafting Adley Rutschman for future success:
As I previously mentioned, Adley Rutschman has a chance to be an instant star. His ceiling is the best catcher in baseball and it is possible he breaks several stereotypes for the catcher position. If you are building a dynasty team around the future grabbing a top prospect like him is a dream come true. He is a cornerstone that you will be able to build your team around for years to come.
Even with a rebuilding mindset, the going price for Adley Rutschman still might be too high to justify. Salvador Perez set records for games played and provided elite production at the catcher position. In redraft formats, he is barely going as a top 50 pick. Adley has never had a plate appearance in the majors. It is rare for a catcher to be able to return top 50 or even top 75 value in fantasy. Adley has the potential to do this, but it is all speculation until he proves it.
In a first year dynasty draft, I am likely passing on Adley at his current ADP. Considering the typical value a catcher can provide and the fact he has not yet played in the bigs, his ADP makes me uncomfortable. Even with a rebuilding mindset, I would prefer to wait until the mid-50s to take him. At his current price, you are passing on proven young talent that can help set your team up for future success. If Adley begins to fall in drafts and can be taken in the late 5th or 6th round he is a player I would absolutely grab, but his 4th round ADP is too high of a price to pay.
Auction Leagues
For auction leagues such as Ottoneu, Rutschman can be attained for around $10. This seems like a more than fair price for a player of his caliber. Rutschman has a chance to be a generational talent. There is a chance that he is a $20 player as soon as this season. Getting him for $10 could set your team up with a tremendous surplus for years to come. I would feel comfortable spending up to $15 on him this season. With star catchers being hard to come by, grabbing a player with
Roto Leagues
Not much typically changes for catchers in ROTO leagues. Any steals that you can get from the catcher position is oftentimes a bonus. Adley Rutschman is unlikely to provide you any added bonus with his legs. He has stolen just four bases in the minor leagues and I doubt he attempts many steals in the majors. Despite this lack of speed, Adley will be able to contribute to every other category. He is going to hit for a solid average and provide you elite power for the catcher position. He has excellent plate discipline which is helpful for OBP leagues.
The runs and RBIs might not be there this season in Baltimore, but I expect them to improve over the next few seasons. Baltimore is still some pieces away from competing, but with all of their young talent on the verge of breaking through things could accelerate quickly. Adley figures to hit in the heart of the order for Baltimore unlike most catchers. His RBI and run totals should not hurt your team now and for dynasty, the upside will likely come soon.
In conclusion, Adley Rutschman has an excellent chance to be a generational player. I am beyond excited to watch him this season. I currently have him on my Ottoneu dynasty team for $7 and cannot wait to watch the surplus he will provide me down the line. Despite loving the talent, I am hesitant to take him in first year dynasty drafts at his price. He will be good, but taking him in the third or fourth rounds is a little bit too high. As a manager, I would be ready to take him if he falls but if not I would be comfortable waiting and taking a catcher later on.
How do you think the new ballpark dimensions will effect him?
I think they might cost him one or two homeruns, but he bats switch anyway and can hit to all parts of the park. Would be more concerned if he was a right handed pull hitter.