Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Eyes on Arraez

Luis Arraez is making headlines in his first season as a Miami Marlin. He is flirting with the hallowed .400 average, as he enters Sunday hitting at a .401 clip. In this day and age of launch angles and tape measure home runs, Arraez is a throwback of sorts. He has 110 hits and only 15 strikeouts this season. To put that in perspective, Jose Ramirez is the only other player in the Majors to have at least 60 hits with fewer than 30 strikeouts. Arraez has captivated many baseball fans with his wizardry at the plate. But what does it mean for fantasy purposes, and where does he land in my rest-of-season fantasy baseball rankings?

Arraez entered the weekend as a top-50 hitter in 5×5 scoring. Not bad for a player who began play on Saturday with two home runs and one stolen base. But it is that lack of output in other areas that has me hesitant to rank him as a top-100 hitter moving forward. As great as Arraez is, he is essentially a one-dimensional fantasy asset. Despite hitting first or third in Miami’s lineup for roughly 85 percent of his at-bats, Arraez has only scored 34 runs. Steven Kwan (who is currently hitting .263) has scored 51 runs so far this year. Miami has scored more runs than Cleveland has this season. Given each player’s batting average, you would expect those individual run totals to be reversed. Arraez does have a decent RBI total (37), but nearly half of those RBI have come during June. Arraez is currently hitting .447 this month.

More great fantasy baseball advice and analysis: Waiver Wire & FAAB Recommendations | Daily MLB Injury Report | MLB DFS Picks | Line-up Analysis | Dynasty Rankings and Strategy | MLB Bullpen Updates | MLB Player Props | Prospect Rankings & Analysis | Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers

This, of course, leads to the conversation regarding expected regression. I do not know if anybody is rooting for Arraez to hit .400 more than I am. At the same time, I do not see him keeping up this pace. There is a reason no Major League hitter has accomplished this feat in over 80 years. And with teams hosting a bevy of relievers who can bring triple-digit heat every day, I doubt even Arraez can overcome that to hit .400. Jeff McNeil led the Majors with a .326 batting average last season. That is an elite batting average. Yet if Arraez hits .326 for the rest of the year, he would finish the season with a batting average right around .360. Take away 20 hits from Arraez’s total so far and is he still a top-50 fantasy hitter? I suspect not.

So much to my dismay because I love the guy, I cannot put Luis Arraez in the top 100 overall or among the top 50 hitters in my ROS rankings. If a fantasy manager in your league thinks a run at .400 is imminent and offers a king’s ransom for Arraez, I would pull the trigger. At the same time, I am not in a rush to sell for pennies on the dollar in fantasy. While I expect a drop-off in production in the second half of the season, Arraez is still a valuable asset. In my experience, you can never have enough batting average help. Either way, I am looking forward to seeing if he can continue to prove people wrong.

Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings