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Post-Hype Dynasty Buys: Second-Year Wide Receivers

As we near kickoff for Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season, many dynasty teams have shifted into “redraft mode”. Contending dynasty teams are making moves to consolidate rosters and find upgrades at starting positions or depth at various skill positions. But dynasty owners shouldn’t ignore previously highly-drafted prospects who’ve since declined in value. Here are a couple of second-year wide receivers who are currently undervalued and could see a bounce-back early on this season.

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Post-Hype Second-Year Wide Receivers

Parris Campbell

The Colts selected Parris Campbell in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft. At that time, Indianapolis had planned on adding Campbell to Andrew Luck‘s arsenal for the coming year, but that plan never came to fruition. Instead, Campbell’s rookie season was blemished by a bevy of injuries. Starting with a hamstring injury in training camp last year, Campbell also suffered a sports hernia, a fractured hand, and a broken foot throughout the season, barely getting a chance to show what he can do at the NFL level.

Immediately following the 2019 NFL Draft, Campbell’s dynasty ADP was 76th overall in startups last June. Fast forward to barely more a year later, and his dynasty ADP has fallen nearly five rounds since entering the league to 130th overall as of August. Though it’s never good when rookies lose a season due to injury, none of his injuries were serious ligament or muscle tears that can detract from his speed or explosiveness long-term. And Campbell has plenty of both, measuring in the 96th percentile among wide receivers in 40-yard dash speed and in the 98th percentile in broad jump.

So far in 2020, a healthy Campbell has drawn rave reviews in training camp. Philip Rivers recently praised Campbell’s play-making abilities during camp practices, calling the sophomore wide receiver “explosive” and stating that “the sky is the limit for him“. It’s also encouraging that the Colts envision a lot more usage out of the slot for Campbell this year, which incidentally is where he excelled during his college career at Ohio State.

Campbell was commonly a late first-round pick in 2019 rookie drafts, and his value has since plummeted. From these trades in August, he’s commonly being considered as a throw-in with a late second-round rookie pick valuation, and sometimes even far less (one dynasty team above apparently wanted to discard Campbell as though he’s already washed out from the NFL, selling him for just a 2023 sixth-round rookie pick).

If he stays healthy, he’s one of a few second-year wide receivers that could be primed for a big bounce back, and his dynasty value could skyrocket in just a few short weeks from where it is now. Campbell is an ideal post-hype target right now in dynasty trades.


Andy Isabella

The Cardinals selected Andy Isabella just three picks after Campbell in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft, but the feeling by many dynasty players is that Isabella was a seventh-round pick or even an undrafted free agent. Isabella has been mostly forgotten as a dynasty asset after failing to see much playing time as a rookie. In fact, the most snaps he saw on offense in any single game last season was 39 percent.

Isabella’s dynasty value has since plunged far further than Campbell’s, dropping from 111th overall all the way down to 201st overall. This precipitous decline has left Isabella being barely even drafted in shallower dynasty formats.

It’s easy to understand why many are discouraged about Isabella’s future in both the NFL and as a dynasty prospect. We’ve seen other similar speedsters fail to make much of an impact in the NFL, most recently players like Tavon Austin and Marquise Goodwin, and perhaps John Ross might also be on the same path to fantasy irrelevance. So what makes Isabella any different? Well, potentially nothing. Isabella could be a non-factor as soon as this season, but his upside far outweighs his current cost. He may be a risky prospect, but he has tantalizing upside given Kliff Kingsbury’s offensive scheme and Kyler Murray‘s talent.

For starters, Arizona utilized four-wide receiver sets at the highest rate in the league last year under Kingsbury, and the margin wasn’t even close. The Cardinals had four wide receivers on the field on an astounding 31 percent of their offensive snaps, far eclipsing the second-highest team, the Jaguars at just eight percent. Even with the arrival of DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk occupying targets, and the lingering veteran presence of Larry Fitzgerald, there’s opportunity for Isabella to contribute, particularly on big plays downfield.

Additionally, even as a rookie quarterback, Murray was bold in targeting receivers downfield and found success in doing so. His 70 deep ball attempts ranked ninth among all quarterbacks, and Murray completed 44.3 percent of those deep passes, ranking sixth-best in the league. With Isabella having matured in getting off press coverage and developing as a route runner, his 4.31 speed could result in he and Murray connecting on quite a few long touchdowns in 2020.

Just over a year ago, Isabella was being drafted in the mid-second round of rookie drafts, and his price has now fallen drastically. For the price of a third-round rookie pick or much less in some instances (evidently two fifth-round picks in a non-IDP format was enough for one dynasty team above to move on from him), this second-year wide receiver still has plenty of potential to make a fantasy impact in what could be a vastly-improved and efficient Arizona offense.

For more fantasy football content, follow me on Twitter @FFA_Meng. Also, check back for more, as we’ll be covering the dynasty football angle year-round.

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