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Post-Draft Fantasy Previews: NFC West

My NFC post-draft fantasy previews series concludes with a look at the NFC West. The West is the toughest division in football. NFC West teams combined to go 26-13-1 in non-divisional games last season, including 14-6 on the road. Seattle has made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons, posting double-digit win totals both years. The Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers have represented the NFC in the Super Bowl over the last two seasons. Arizona is rebuilding around last year’s number-one overall draft pick, quarterback Kyler Murray. While none of the teams in the division drafted a potential franchise quarterback in this year’s draft, there were still plenty of impactful player moves. Here is my post-draft look at the NFC West.

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Post-Draft Fantasy Previews: NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals have posted a losing record in consecutive years for the first time since 2005-2006. All is not lost, however. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury has a potential franchise quarterback in Kyler Murray and a sweet pad. Though the draft itself did not bare a ton of fantasy-friendly fruit, the Cardinals have made some strides towards getting themselves out of the NFC West cellar.

Quarterback

Kyler Murray may not have set the world on fire in his rookie season, but there was plenty to be excited about. The former Heisman Trophy winner remarkably did not lose a single fumble until the season finale and threw just 12 interceptions on the year. Those numbers highlight Murray’s outstanding awareness and are positive signs for his continued development. He finished eighth among quarterbacks in total fantasy points last year and 12th in points per game despite throwing for fewer than 200 yards six times. His floor should be relatively safe based on his rushing numbers. Murray had the second-most rushing yards by a quarterback last year despite being limited by a hamstring injury. The team drafted left tackle Josh Jones in the third round of this year’s draft. Jones will help protect Murray, who was sacked 48 times as a rookie.
Murray should only improve with time, especially now that he has a true number-one receiver at his disposal. Arizona acquired star wideout DeAndre Hopkins in a trade with the Houston Texans in March. His presence gives the Cardinals the most sure-handed trio of receivers in football. Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, and Christian Kirk combined for just four drops on 377 targets last year. I foresee an uptick in both Murray’s 6.9 yards per attempt and 232.6 yards per game from last season. Slight improvements across the board in his passing metrics would all but guarantee a top-10 fantasy finish in 2020. And the potential is there for significantly more. Murray will have plenty of hype come draft season, so you may want to invest now before it gets out of control. If there is a “this year’s Lamar Jackson” out there, it is probably Kyler Murray.

Running Backs

The Cardinals acquired Hopkins by trading running back David Johnson. Johnson was the best player in fantasy back in 2016. But injuries have prohibited him from reaching that level of success since. Midseason acquisition Kenyan Drake carried fantasy owners to championships with a two-game surge starting in Week 15 in which he rushed for over 300 yards and scored six touchdowns. The Cardinals placed the transition tag on Drake and then signed him to a one-year contract. Drake averaged nearly 19 touches per game after landing in Arizona, and he was the overall RB4 during his time in the desert. That pace is probably not sustainable over a full year, but there is still value to be had here. Seventh-round pick Eno Benjamin is a skilled receiver and could usurp Chase Edmonds for backup duties behind Drake at some point this season.

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins has averaged over 1,200 receiving yards per year in his seven NFL seasons. He is a perennial WR1 and that is not expected to change in Arizona. The addition of Hopkins will have a bigger impact on his new teammates than on Hopkins himself. Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk each had over 100 targets last year. I doubt that is the case in 2020. I think that youth will win out, and Fitzgerald’s role in the offense will be a bit diminished. Fantasy owners should roster the future Hall of Famer in redraft leagues, but I think expectations need to be adjusted. He has averaged just 48 yards per game for the last two seasons. The soon-to-be 37-year old Fitzgerald is simply bench depth for fantasy purposes at this stage of his career.

Christian Kirk showed a lot of promise in year two of his NFL career. He finished his sophomore season with 68 catches for 709 yards in 13 games. Kirk even tacked on 10 rushes for 93 yards for good measure. His 12.9 points per game ranked him 31st among wide receivers in PPR leagues. Considering that he moved from the slot to outside halfway through the season and played in a new system with a rookie quarterback, the arrow seems to be pointing up for Kirk’s value in Dynasty leagues. Owners in redraft leagues, however, appear to be a bit hesitant to go all-in. The return of Fitzgerald and the addition of Hopkins have led to a recent dip in Kirk’s 2020 ADP. I consider this a buying opportunity and would jump at the chance to secure Kirk at a relative discount.

Tight Ends

Kliff Kingsbury’s system is not one that features the tight ends, and the Cardinals do not have a player at the position that has the pass-catching chops to change that narrative. Last season, Maxx Williams and Charles Clay combined for a 33-439-2 line in 31 games. Clay has since been replaced by Dan Arnold, formerly of the New Orleans Saints. Arnold made some noise when he posted a 4-76-1 line in a season-ending start for Clay. But I am willing to bet that performance was more a one-off and less a harbinger of things to come. Outside of his ability to vulture a random touchdown here or there, I do not see much value here beyond Best Ball leagues.

Los Angeles Rams

After making it to the Super Bowl following the 2018 season, the Rams failed to make the playoffs last year. If they are to return to the elite teams in 2020, they will do so with an offense that looks a bit different than the 2018 juggernaut. Los Angeles released Todd Gurley and traded Brandin Cooks away to Houston. The Rams attempted to replace those players through the draft, with players who are younger and come and a less prohibitive cost than their predecessors. Hopefully, the team’s plan to retool their offense goes over better than their new logo did.

Quarterback

What a difference a year makes. After finishing inside the top 10 in fantasy points per game in 2018, Jared Goff finished outside the top 20 a season ago. Despite the downward trajectory in fantasy points, Goff still threw for the third-most passing yards in the league. His efficiency, however, took a major hit last year. Goff’s yards per attempt and touchdown percentage were way down when compared to 2018 levels. I think his skill set and surroundings point to him finishing somewhere in between his 2018 and 2019 numbers this year. He still has weapons to throw to, and Sean McVay will want Goff to succeed after the team inked Goff to what now looks like a ridiculous contract last September. I like Goff as a QB2 in SuperFlex leagues but would prefer to utilize him as a streamer in standard formats this season.

Running Backs

The Rams parted ways with former Offensive Player of the Year Todd Gurley back in March. The team then used its first draft pick this year to select Florida State running back Cam Akers. Akers did not put together the type of collegiate career that many expected after being a five-star recruit out of high school. However, Akers was saddled with one of the worst offensive lines in the country. That should improve at least a little at the beginning of his NFL tenure. After featuring perhaps the best offensive line in the NFL in 2018, fortunes turned quickly for the unit as a whole last season. They were a below-average offensive line in 2019 by most metrics. I feel the same way about the Rams’ offensive line as I do about Goff. I think their 2020 production will be somewhere in between their 2018 and 2019 levels.

Akers has a fair chance to be a three-down back in a potent offense. He is a solid receiver out of the backfield and is proficient in pass protection. Those skills should give him a bit of an edge over the returning Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson. Between Henderson’s lack of involvement last year (just 43 touches in 13 games) and the selection of Akers in the draft, it seems the club has soured somewhat on last year’s third-round pick. Brown could be the short-yardage and goal-line back, which could hinder Akers to some degree. Ultimately, though, I do not expect Brown to have much standalone value. I would prefer Akers as a Flex as opposed to an RB2, but there is upside here. He also makes for a great dynasty pick considering how much the Rams fed Gurley in McVay’s first three years in L.A.

Wide Receivers

Do not tell Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp that the Rams offense had a down year. Each finished 2019 as top-14 PPR wideouts. Now, with Brandin Cooks gone, the duo should get the bulk of targets again this season. Kupp seems to be the preferred option among most fantasy owners. However, I prefer the man they call Bobby Trees. I anticipate some positive touchdown regression heading Woods’ way this year. Since 2018, 16 wide receivers have amassed at least 2,000 receiving yards. 15 have had at least 150 total receptions. Woods is the only player in either group to have fewer than 10 touchdown grabs over that span. He has finished as a top-16 fantasy wideout in each of those seasons despite the lack of touchdown catches, so I think a WR1 finish is within his reach. Kupp should also be considered a solid WR2.

Josh Reynolds has filled in well when called upon over the last couple of seasons. He would seem to have the inside track on the team’s third receiver spot, but the Rams did draft Van Jefferson in the second round. Reynolds has 48 NFL games under his belt yet will be just a year older than Jefferson once the season begins. I would look for Reynolds to stave off the rookie and maintain his role in the pecking order. However, the emergence of tight ends Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett make the third wideout in Los Angeles a less desirable position to be in than in previous years. Rams tight ends caught over 100 passes last year. That should not leave much meat left on the bone for Reynolds to pick at. I view Reynolds as a late-round dart throw, while Jefferson can be left on waivers.

Tight Ends

Starting in Week 13 of the 2019 season, Tyler Higbee went on a run that was nearly unprecedented in NFL history. Higbee became of one just four tight ends to post four consecutive 100-plus receiving yard performances. Now, heading into 2020, Higbee is a consensus TE1 on the strength of his late-season run. I must note, however, that Gerald Everett played a combined six snaps during Higbee’s heater. Everett missed Weeks 13-15 with a knee injury before making cameo appearances in Weeks 16 and 17. Through Week 10 (Everett sustained the injury in Week 11), Everett was the overall TE11 in PPR leagues while Higbee sat as TE34. It is also worth mentioning that before recording 522 receiving yards in his last five outings, Higbee had recorded a total of 884 yards over his first 58 NFL contests.

I point these things out not because I hate Higbee. He proved himself more than capable down the stretch last year. I just do not what happened late last year as Higbee “Pipping” Everett, and do not view the Rams’ tight end production as a one-man show. McVay made mention recently of getting Everett more involved, and I believe Everett will be up to the task. The situation presents a potential problem for fantasy owners. It would not surprise me to see both Higbee and Everett finish the year as top-20 fantasy tight ends, with neither finishing in the top 12. I love the idea of drafting either or both in Best Ball formats. But I am not fond of the notion of relying on Higbee as my every-week TE1. I would rather have Everett at his current price than Higbee at his.

San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers went 4-12 in 2018 and were three minutes away from a Super Bowl victory last season. They made plenty of moves this offseason, as they look to maintain their perch on top of the NFC West. Gone are the team’s second-leading rusher and receiver from a year ago, while the Niners selected two wide receivers among their five picks in this year’s draft. They also signed a pair of running backs after the draft to bolster their depth at the position. GM John Lynch has given head coach Kyle Shanahan a roster that figures to be right in the thick of things come playoff time.

Quarterback

Jimmy Garoppolo finished 14th among quarterbacks in fantasy points in his first season as a starter, though his ranking dipped to 22nd in terms of points per game. Garoppolo was rarely asked to do much, as San Francisco relied on its rushing attack and defense to win games. In 19 games including the playoffs, Garoppolo threw more than 35 passes just three times. Two of those games were against Arizona, who had a notoriously bad pass defense. In his first 11 quarters of postseason action, Garoppolo threw the ball just 47 times. The team simply did not rely on him to win ballgames. Garoppolo has some upside with the playmakers around him and Shanahan calling the shots. But until they trust him to let it fly more often, it is hard to consider Garoppolo more than a streamer at this juncture.

Running Backs

When training camp began last season, Raheem Mostert was no higher than fifth on the team’s depth chart at running back. Fast forward six months and there was Mostert, rushing for 220 yards and four touchdowns in the NFC Championship Game. That followed a stretch of eight touchdowns in the final six regular-season games for the former undrafted free agent. The long and winding road was a microcosm of Mostert’s career. By the time Mostert earned his first NFL carry on san Francisco’s final drive of the 2016 campaign, he was already on his seventh NFL team. Mostert’s high-profile roller coaster ride is likely going to result in him being a bit overvalued this offseason. Even with Matt Breida traded to Miami, I envision a committee of sorts in San Francisco. Mostert is a volatile Flex for me depending on how the next few months shake out.

Chief among Mostert’s competition is Tevin Coleman. Coleman himself ran for 105 yards and two scores in the 49ers’ Divisional win over Minnesota in January. It is not as if he will waste away on the sidelines. Raheem should get Mostert the reps (see what I did there?), but I imagine a 60-40 split between him and Coleman. Coleman is an RB4 whose involvement will frustrate Mostert owners. Jerick McKinnon is also supposed to be back in time for the 2020 season. Cue the collective eye-roll from the fantasy community. I hear you, except McKinnon has a much longer track record of being able to catch passes out of the backfield. That is a skill set that is valuable in both Shanahan’s offense and fantasy football. Owners who pick McKinnon at the end of a deep Best Ball or Draft and Hold league are doing so with minimal risk involved.

Finally, the 49ers signed two undrafted free agents. Throughout this divisional preview series, I have rarely touched on UFDAs, primarily because they are longshots to make it past preseason in most instances. In this case, however, I will make an exception. I already mentioned that Mostert himself was undrafted out of college, then cut by six teams over the next 18 months. San Francisco has shown a willingness to eschew draft capital and simply pull running backs off the assembly line. Enter Salvon Ahmed and JaMycal Hasty. The 49ers signed both backs following this year’s draft. Both can catch balls out of the backfield. If McKinnon’s health does not cooperate in time for the season (not exactly the craziest scenario), one of these players could be thrust into action. I prefer Hasty but “Running Backs Don’t Matter” and “In Shanny I Trust”, so follow the breadcrumbs.

Wide Receivers

It took a while for Deebo Samuel to get going in his rookie season. After eight games, Samuel was outside the top 70 wide receivers in PPR scoring. He finished the year 31st. Last year’s second-round pick ascended rapidly into the upper echelon of fantasy wide receivers. His strong second half was due in large part to his ability to make plays in space, a hallmark of Shanahan’s offense. Samuel now stands to lead the receiving corps following the departure of Emmanuel Sanders via free agency. I expect Samuel to be able to shoulder the load. He proved late in the year that he can be the man and can even handle double coverage at times. Samuel is currently being drafted as a WR3, and I think that is a bit too low. I see him as a WR2 with legitimate WR1 upside.

San Francisco chose to forgo one of the “big three” wide receivers with their initial first-round pick in this year’s draft. Later in the night, however, they made a bold move. They traded their second first-round pick, in addition to two more picks, to move up and draft Brandon Aiyuk out of Arizona State. Aiyuk’s explosiveness figures to be exploited in San Francisco’s passing attack. He will likely be a mid-round fantasy pick by the time the season begins. He may struggle out of the gate as Samuel did initially, so prepare to pounce if he gets off to a slow start. Aiyuk could be a Best Ball darling with his big-play upside. The 49ers also drafted Jauan Jennings in the seventh round, but there is no fantasy impact here. Kendrick Bourne, Trent Taylor, Dante Pettis, and Jalen Hurd are all ahead of Jennings on the depth chart.

Tight Ends

San Francisco used its penultimate pick to select tight end, Charlie Woerner, out of Georgia in the sixth round. Even if the Niners did not have All-World tight end George Kittle in tow, Woerner’s presence would have zero fantasy relevance. Woerner caught just 34 passes in college. San Francisco drafted Woerner to run block, plain and simple. Per Pro Football Focus, Woerner’s 82.9 run-blocking grade last year was tops among 85 draft-eligible tight ends with at least 200 run-blocking snaps. Kittle will continue to be the focal point of the 49ers’ passing game and will likely be a second-round pick in all formats.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks had a legitimate shot at the NFC’s top seed before a 1-3 final quarter of the regular season derailed those plans. They made it to the second round of the playoffs before falling short in Green Bay. Seattle lost both Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny to significant injuries in December. The team drafted a running back in the middle of this year’s draft and has also been engaged in talks with Marshawn Lynch. Drafting a running back and entertaining another go-around with a 34-year old may be ominous signs for the status of Carson, Penny, or both. In addition to injury concerns, Carson will be an unrestricted free agent following the 2020 season, while Penny has just 150 NFL carries to his credit.

Quarterback

There are not many superlatives that do Russell Wilson justice. He was a candidate for the league’s MVP midway through the season and had his fourth top-four fantasy finish. Wilson has finished each of his eight NFL seasons as a top-11 fantasy quarterback. He has done this despite never averaging 35 pass attempts per game in a single season. Last season, a dozen players at the position averaged 35 throws per game, including Daniel Jones and Kyle Allen. Wilson continues to thrive despite being hamstrung by the team’s conservative approach. The days of him rushing for over 500 yards in a season are likely behind him as he enters his age-31 season. But Wilson is an uber-safe fantasy commodity who will seldom be the reason his owner’s fantasy team loses his or her weekly matchup.

Running Backs

Chris Carson suffered a fractured hip in December and was lost for the remainder of the year. He should be back in time for Week 1, but it would take a lot for me to draft him in the third round given the injury. I suspect Seattle will play it close to the vest with Carson as the season approaches. He may not even play during whatever preseason occurs this year. I would be looking elsewhere that early in drafts. Penny’s injury was even worse, as he suffered a torn ACL just two weeks before Carson went down. Seattle is expected to place Penny on the PUP list after head coach Pete Carroll described the condition after the surgery as “more than just a normal ACL”. Penny is a hard pass for me in 2020 redraft leagues, and I am nervous about his Dynasty prospects as well.

Seattle drafted Deejay Dallas in the fourth round. No, not to spin at Trinity on Saturday night, but presumably to carry the ball on Sundays. Dallas did not do much of the latter at the University of Miami. He had just 265 carries over three seasons at the U. Despite originally being recruited as a receiver, he was only targeted 31 times in college. There would not seem to be a lot for owners to hang their hats on here under normal circumstances. However, if Carson and Penny cannot get healthy by the time the season begins, Dallas should benefit. Carson himself was fifth or six on the team’s depth chart back in 2017 when his rookie season started. Sometimes all it takes is an opportunity, and Dallas may have one come September. If pressed, I would rather invest in the rookie than in Travis Homer or Marshawn Lynch.

Wide Receivers

Fantasy football is funny sometimes. If you looked solely at Tyler Lockett’s WR13 2019 finish, you would praise all the talking heads who were boosting his ADP over the offseason. And I guess technically you would be right. But ask just about any Lockett owner if they were happy with him by the end of the year, and I would imagine the feedback would be less glowing. After roasting Tampa Bay to the tune of 40.2 PPR points in Week 9, Lockett went on to score a combined 47.2 points over his next six. That number looks even worse considering his 26 point Week 15 effort. Fantasy owners should continue to treat Lockett as a WR2 this season. Let’s just hope that his path to that destination is a little less rocky.

D.K. Metcalf had a solid rookie campaign in 2019. He had 900 receiving yards, and his 160-yard effort in Seattle’s playoff victory set a new league record for receiving yards by a rookie in the playoffs. On a per-game basis, though, Metcalf finished outside the top 40 receivers in PPR scoring. That is part of the problem when playing for such a conservative offense. It is unlikely that Seattle can support both Lockett and Metcalf as top-25 receivers going forward. I like Metcalf as a WR3, but I anticipate his draft price being a bit higher than I will be willing to pay. The Seahawks drafted Freddie Swain in the sixth round, but he should not be considered for fantasy purposes. David Moore and Phillip Dorsett will receive any runoff after Lockett and Metcalf, and even that will not be enough for either to remain relevant.

Tight Ends

I trust that the Seattle brass knows a lot more about football than I do. However, I am a bit perplexed as to how the team addressed the tight end position this offseason. They signed Greg Olsen, who has one foot in the broadcast booth, back in February. That move in and of itself seemed odd considering they already had Will Dissly, Luke Willson, and Jacob Hollister on the roster. Perhaps one of them would be let go, I thought. Nope. Seattle extended a second-round tender on Hollister and re-signed Willson in March. Then the Seahawks re-signed Hollister in April. Still not satisfied, Seattle then drafted two more tight ends in this year’s draft. Has anyone seen John Schneider in the last three months? Maybe there is a Wizard of Oz scenario going on and Ryan Pace is secretly calling the shots in the Emerald City.

Whatever the motivation for accumulating the largest conglomerate of tight ends west of Chicago, it is hard to get too excited about any of them in any fantasy format. Olsen stands to be the most logical candidate for targets. After all, he has over 700 catches in his 13-year NFL career. But given his recent injury history and advanced age, the veteran does not have much upside in redraft leagues. I would not mind streaming him, but there are so many other moving parts here that the process would be maddening. Would you want to stream Olsen against the Cardinals and then watch Dissly or Hollister score two short touchdowns? Me neither. I just do not think the juice is worth the squeeze for any tight end in this offense.

Check out Tayler Lambert’s take on the state of the AFC.


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