Overvalued Quarterbacks Based off ADP in Fantasy Football
The quarterback position gets no respect from Steven Toroni. Year after year I win Fantasy Football championships while drafting quarterbacks late and streaming throughout the season. You can compare how I use quarterbacks in Fantasy to how the Patriots use running backs in real life. Week after week it is uncertain who will be the lead guy until that player is hot and all of a sudden he is getting a large workload. That is why I want to talk about overvalued quarterbacks in Fantasy Football.
The quarterback is not as valuable to Fantasy teams as running backs or wide receivers, that much is clear. We have to understand that is because, in a passing league, there are so many good players at the position. Only 28.1 Fantasy points separated the QB5 (Kirk Cousins) from the QB12 (Jared Goff) in standard Yahoo scoring in 2017. The difference for the RB5 and RB12 was 70 Fantasy points. Goff is going three rounds behind Cousins.
Let’s figure out which overvalued quarterbacks might not be worth their ADP so that you can spend premium draft stock on premium positions.
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Overvalued Quarterbacks for 2018 Fantasy Football
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
I better have some good reason to deem the QB5 for the last two seasons as one fantasy’s most overvalued quarterbacks. Luckily for you fine people, I sure do. Cousins was the most highly touted free agent quarterback since Peyton Manning. That in itself has blown the hype train out of proportion. He signed with the Vikings, who undoubtedly had a great year in 2017, and now Cousins is being taken as the QB8 – modest based off of his two previous seasons.
The Redskins have been a pass-first offense under Jay Gruden. That is because of a combination of the play-calling tendencies along with the lack of talent at the running back position. In 2016 Cousins attempted 606 passes (sixth in the NFL) and he threw 540 times (eighth in the NFL) last season. Last season Case Keenum had 481 pass attempts for the Vikings.
Cousins will be on the first well-rounded team of his career which means he will not have to do as much. Surprisingly, from 2015-2017 Cousins finished with five, four, and four rushing touchdowns which boosted his Fantasy value. Now, he will have the luxury of having Latavius Murray and Dalvin Cook who provide reliable goal-line work. Last season Murray had six touchdowns inside the five-yard line which was tied for third in the NFL.
Cousins has a lot of weapons and his defense will set the Vikings up for scoring opportunities. However, he is being drafted as a guy who can be started on a weekly basis and I view him as more of a streamer. He will have great games with four touchdowns but will also have a couple of one-score games due to game script. Cousins was 17th in the NFL in 2017 in red-zone completion percentage (50 percent) of players with at least 30 attempts inside the 20. He also had three interceptions in this area of the field.
Cousins’ ADP of 7.07 is just behind Cam Newton. The draft price is too high when players like Philip Rivers are being drafted multiple rounds later. Fade Cousins as he is one of the most overvalued quarterbacks in Fantasy Football.
Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
In five starts and one game where he went two for two with one touchdown, Garoppolo had 2,250 yards, 12 touchdowns, and five picks. He played outstanding football and did just enough to help his team win every week. While he has proven he is a good NFL quarterback, I am fading that he is a Top 10 Fantasy player.
Jimmy G is one of the overvalued quarterbacks at an ADP of 8.01. He is being selected as the QB9 ahead of Matthew Stafford, Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger. I understand the out-with-the-old mentality that Fantasy owners have but ADP value has to be considered.
The Kyle Shanahan system is great but there are not a plethora of weapons in San Francisco. Jerick Mckinnon will be a nice addition but Pierre Garcon has lost a step and Marquise Goodwin is unproven. Jared Goff is going almost three rounds later and he has Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, and Cooper Kupp.
While Jimmy G should have a great season, draft accordingly based on his ADP.
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
Ian Rapoport reported that the Eagles are strongly considering putting Carson Wentz on the Physically Unable to Perform list. He would be able to come off at any time and does not mean he would have to start the season on the PUP list. If he does he would not be active until Week 7. Of course, if that does happen that will dramatically lower his current 6.04 ADP (QB5).
The #Eagles report and have their physicals today, including rehabbing QB Carson Wentz. The most likely, cautious scenario is that Wentz lands on the PUP list, sources say, though he could come off at any time. It would not be an indication that he’ll start the season on PUP.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) July 25, 2018
Wentz had an MVP caliber season in 2017. In 13 games he had 3.296 yards, 33 touchdowns, and only seven interceptions. As a Fantasy analyst, my job is partly cynical in that I have to project for the following year as opposed to relishing in great seasons by players. In 2015 Cam Newton was the QB1. He was the league MVP and the Panthers went to the Super Bowl. In 2016 he was the QB15. In 2016 Matt Ryan was the QB2. He was the league MVP and the Falcons played in the Super Bowl. In 2017 Ryan was the QB15.
Wentz had a 7.5 percent touchdown rate which led the NFL last season. Aaron Rodgers (you might have heard of him) has a career 6.4 percent touchdown rate. So, there has to be regression for Wentz in this category just like we anticipate DeShaun Watson will experience. Wentz may be great but living up to his QB6 season sets a high standard for himself, especially coming off of a serious knee injury.
There are a lot of positives to look at when projecting Wentz. He has plenty of weapons, a good offensive line, and a great defense. He will enter the year (if healthy) with Jay Ajayi at running back which should be considered an upgrade over LeGarrette Blount. However, his draft price is just too high as he is currently going off draft boards a few picks ahead of Russell Wilson (last years QB1 overall) who has been a Top 3 QB in three of the last four seasons.
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