Our focus in best-ball now turns toward the NFL draft. The free agency fireworks are out. Veteran contracts have been mostly negotiated with some exceptions. With no other news, the youngsters take center stage. They bring the entirety of the dynasty community along with them in the process. Film grinders and analytic geeks alike have filled Twitter with fact and trait-based analysis on the incoming class. Talent can be identified in the early stages of the process, but fantasy football production relies on talent, opportunity, and situation. Each can drive a player’s ADP, but a clear picture of their outlook can be vital to assessing risk when drafting.
Let’s look back on rookies at each position and use their first-year production as a guide for an optimal draft strategy.
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Drafting Rookies in Best-Ball Formats
Quarterbacks
Quarterback production relies on timing, rapport with receivers, an understanding of the offense and the ability to read defensive fronts at the highest level. This all takes time. Here’s a list of the quarterbacks that have been drafted by the second round over the past three years and their rookie fantasy finishes.
| 2018 |
QB Finish
|
2017 |
QB Finish
|
2016 |
QB Finish
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield |
17
|
Mitchel Trubisky |
28
|
Jared Goff |
37
|
| Sam Darnold |
27
|
Patrick Mahomes |
51
|
Carson Wentz |
24
|
| Josh Allen |
21
|
Deshaun Watson |
26
|
Paxton Lynch |
43
|
| Josh Rosen |
34
|
Deshone Kizer |
25
|
Christian Hackenberg |
60
|
| Lamar Jackson |
29
|
Jameis Winston is still one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in their rookie season (QB14), but the majority of the data indicates that there are better selections in a best-ball draft. The risk in drafting a rookie quarterback is minimal. Sam Darnold carried the highest draft cost at an ADP of 219. However, the typical production at the position doesn’t justify the investment for one of the ‘onesie’ positions.
| Quarterback |
Win Rate
|
|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield |
3.3%
|
| Josh Rosen |
1.7%
|
| Lamar Jackson |
1.7%
|
| Sam Darnold |
1.7%
|
Mayfield’s impressive 2018 performance only netted drafters a 3.3% win rate (30th for all quarterbacks). So, despite the hype, the edge goes to the vets. Investing earlier at the position will result in a more optimal roster and an increased overall win rate using the right process.
Running Back
Rookie running backs are the personification of combining talent, opportunity, and situation. Projections and narratives surrounding a rookie are almost instantly available the moment they’re drafted. Landing spots play a key role in our evaluation of their rookie season outlook with many living up to those expectations.
|
2018
|
PPR Finish
|
2017
|
PPR Finish
|
2016
|
PPR Finish
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley |
1
|
Leonard Fournette |
9
|
Ezekiel Elliot |
2
|
| Rashaad Penny |
67
|
Christian McCaffrey |
10
|
Derrick Henry |
44
|
| Sony Michel |
35
|
Dalvin Cook |
N/A
|
||
| Nick Chubb |
17
|
Joe Mixon |
34
|
||
| Ronald Jones |
95
|
||||
| Kerryon Johnson |
34
|
||||
| Derrius Guice |
N/A
|
Injuries have either completely derailed a rookie’s season or kept them out of a few games reducing their time to get acclimated to their offense and speed of play. Regardless, rookie RBs tend to move the needle more than any other position group. Analysis on both sides (film and analytics) can generally come to a consensus on a rookie’s debut combining their pre-draft notes with their new team.
| Running Back |
Win Rate
|
|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley |
15.7%
|
| Nick Chubb |
12.4%
|
| Kerryon Johnson |
7.4%
|
| Ronald Jones II |
5.0%
|
| Rashaad Penny |
4.1%
|
| Sony Michel |
4.1%
|
Barkley, similar to Fournette and Elliot before him, was a perfect match for fantasy. Again, elite talent coupled with opportunity and a positive situation aided in his production reaching all-time highs for his position. His cost in best-ball came with the greatest risk as he hovered in the mid-first round (7.2 overall), but there was considerable logic behind the best-ball selection. The remaining had a price range of 72.2 to 110.7 overall. It’s in this range where drafting players of this type can be profitable.
Wide Receiver
While we stress talent, opportunity, and situation, the last two become a much greater factor for receivers. Establishing a rapport with the quarterback and learning the offense are adjustments receivers have to make along with quarterbacks. There have been some exceptions, but each class has its studs and duds.
|
2018
|
PPR Finish
|
2017
|
PPR Finish
|
2016
|
PPR Finish
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Moore |
36
|
Corey Davis |
87
|
Corey Coleman |
83
|
| Calvin Ridley |
22
|
Mike Williams |
137
|
Will Fuller |
65
|
| Courtland Sutton |
50
|
John Ross |
N/A
|
Josh Doctson |
N/A
|
| Dante Pettis |
71
|
Zay Jones |
85
|
Laquon Treadwell |
N/A
|
| Christian Kirk |
58
|
Curtis Samuel |
126
|
Sterling Shepard |
36
|
| Anthony Miller |
60
|
JuJu Smith-Schuster |
23
|
Michael Thomas |
7
|
| James Washington |
124
|
Tyler Boyd |
64
|
||
| DJ Chark |
142
|
The names are recognizable and most that finished in the bottom tiers have a valid explanation. James Washington sat behind two Pro Bowl talents. Mike Williams, Corey Davis, John Ross and Curtis Samuel battled injury for a significant portion of their rookie season. Corey Coleman was sent to Hue Jackson. It’s with wide receivers where a seasonal narrative needs to be constructed. What’s their path to targets? What’s the realistic range of outcomes? Answers to these questions will help in limiting exposure to rookie receivers relative to their cost.
| Wide Receiver |
Win Rate
|
|---|---|
| Christian Kirk |
9.9%
|
| Anthony Miller |
9.1%
|
| D.J. Moore |
8.3%
|
| Calvin Ridley |
6.6%
|
| James Washington |
4.1%
|
| Dante Pettis |
3.3%
|
| Courtland Sutton |
2.5%
|
While no rookie was drafted in 2018 to be the anchor of the positional group, their WR1 weeks boost win probability. Applying an optimal strategy for the position as a whole will guide drafters to properly selecting rookie receivers as more situational data becomes available.
Tight End
The dual nature of the tight end position makes it the most difficult on-field job to learn. Playing the role of an offensive lineman and receiver takes time to understand limiting rookie-season production.
|
2018
|
PPR Finish
|
2017
|
PPR Finish
|
2016
|
PPR Finish
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden Hurst |
59
|
O.J. Howard |
21
|
Hunter Henry |
19
|
| Mike Gesicki |
51
|
Evan Engram |
5
|
||
| Dallas Goedert |
20
|
David Njoku |
24
|
||
| Gerald Everett |
43
|
||||
| Adam Shaheen |
48
|
Similar to rookie quarterbacks, rookie tight ends simply aren’t worth the investment in best-ball. Tight end targets aren’t stable on a weekly basis even for the established players. Rookies present an even greater risk to a reliable production floor limiting their viability in best-ball.
| Tight End |
Win Rate
|
|---|---|
| Mike Gesicki |
5.8%
|
| Dallas Goedert |
2.5%
|
| Hayden Hurst |
1.7%
|
However, given the cheap nature of rookie tight ends (192.3 to 217.7 overall ADP in 2018), a 3 TE build could be used here. It could absorb most of the risk associated with acquiring a player with low production while providing some points in the event another tight end is injured. Otherwise, a 2 TE build with established personnel would be the optimal approach to drafting tight ends in best-ball.
Chris Allen comes from an analytical background, leveraging his data skills with his multiple years of experience across different formats (e.g. seasonal redraft, DFS, MFL10). His primary focus has been the analysis of weather effects and its impact on games, player output variance, and the validity of the associated narratives. Chris’ writings have been featured on multiple websites including Fantrax, 4for4, and, most recently, Sports Illustrated. Chris can also be heard as co-host on the Dynasty Owners Manual podcast and is a member of the FSWA.
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