NBA DFS Plays for Wednesday, 2/12: The Real Beal
Monday’s article was disappointing by my standards and it’s really all because of volatile injury situations. We figured that Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry would both be out but their surprising returns to their respective lineups ruined a couple of our picks. That’s one of the only issues when making picks the night prior and that’s why I always leave my Twitter information below so you can ask if that happens. With that in mind, let’s get into our 2/12 NBA DFS plays of the day!
If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel
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2/12 NBA DFS Point Guards
Elfrid Payton, NYK vs. WSH
DK ($7,500) FD ($7,200)
This dude has been an absolute beast recently and we have to hop on the train when it’s steaming like this. Not only does Elf have at least 33 DraftKings points in 11-straight games, he’s also averaging 11.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, 9.3 assists, and 1.9 steals per game in that span. That equates to 39 fantasy points per game and this is easily his best matchup in that hot stretch. In fact, the Wizards rank dead-last in both points allowed and defensive efficiency while surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing PGs.
Ja Morant, MEM vs. POR
DK ($7,500) FD ($6,700)
Morant has seen a price decrease recently and it’s hard to understand why. This rookie has been nothing short of spectacular, averaging 32.9 DK points per game for the season. He’s been even better recently, averaging 34.4 fantasy points per game across his last 19 outings after dropping a season-best 62.5 DK points on Monday. The reason we think he can keep that form rolling here is because of the matchup, facing a Portland club who owns a 28th OPRK against opposing point guards while sitting 26th in total defense. Look for Morant and Damian Lillard to go back and forth all night long in what’s going to be a fun watch.
2/12 NBA DFS Shooting Guards
Bradley Beal, WSH at NYK
DK ($9,600) FD ($9,600)
Beal’s price has gotten a little high for my liking but this has 40 points written all over it. Over his last five fixtures, Beal is averaging 39 points, 4.6 rebound, and 6.8 assists per game en route to a 55-point average. What we really love is that Beal is taking 23 shots a game in that span and playing 36 minutes per game while posting a 35.7 percent usage rate. That monstrous role is really enticing against a Knicks team who sits 22nd in defensive efficiency. Beal dropped 47 fantasy points in their one meeting this season, despite shooting 34 percent from the field (13-37), 18 percent from three-point range (2-11) and 50 percent from the free-throw line (2-4) on a season-high 37 shots. Could you imagine what that would have looked like if he matched his season averages in percentages?
Khris Middleton, MIL at IND
DK ($8,800) FD ($7,200)
With Giannis Antetokounlpo expected to miss another game here, Middleton should be the focal point of this offense. When Giannis is off the floor, Middleton leads the team with a 33.5 percent usage rate while averaging 1.5 DK points per minute. That’s an elite rate and it’s no surprise when you see that he has at least 39 fantasy points in all five games that Antetokounmpo has missed while averaging 48.6 DK points per game in that span.
2/12 NBA DFS Small Forwards
Draymond Green, GS at PHX
DK ($6,700) FD ($6,000)
Green has quietly had a nice resurgence after a terrible start to the season. The most important thing to look at when it comes to Green is the matchup. We need a bad defense and a competitive game which should be the case here. In fact, Phoenix currently sits 20th in defensive rating and we should be looking at a spread within eight points here. If you look at the Warriors last 13 games, Green has scored at least 25 DK points in all 10 that were decided by 20 points or fewer while averaging 35.8 fantasy points per game in that span. That’s all you can ask for from someone in this price range, especially considering he dropped 32.3 DraftKings points in his most recent meeting with the Suns on December 27.
Trevor Ariza, POR at MEM
DK ($4,500) FD ($4,400)
This play doesn’t have a whole lot of upside but Ariza is way too cheap. Outside of one dud against an elite Jazz defense where he was ejected, Ariza has at least 16 DK points in six-straight games. In fact, Ariza is averaging 26 fantasy points per game in those six outings while playing 34.3 minutes per outing. That’s the Ariza of old and it makes these price tags all the more surprising. The matchup is simply a bonus, with the Grizzlies sitting fourth in pace and 21st in total defense.
2/12 NBA DFS Power Forwards
Kevin Love, CLE vs. ATL
DK ($7,400) FD ($7,000)
Love is actually in the same boat as Green. We love him whenever he gets a good matchup and when he’s expected to be in a competitive game. Both of those boxes are checked here, with Atlanta sitting 28th in defensive efficiency and 29th in points allowed while looking at a 1.5-point spread. That’s a perfect recipe for Love, with the PF scoring at least 24 DK points in 16-straight games while averaging 35.9 fantasy points per game in that span. Reaching that 36-point average should be an easy task in a matchup like this. In addition, Love is averaging 41 fantasy points per game in two matchups with the Hawks this season.
Ersan Ilyasova, MIL at IND
DK ($4,800) FD ($4,100)
Anytime Giannis Antetokounmo is out, Ilyasova becomes one of the best value plays out there. In the five starts for Giannis this season, Ilyasova has scored at least 23 fantasy points in all of them while averaging 33 DraftKings points per game. That makes these price tags truly shocking and we love that he faces an Indiana team that has struggled with big men all season long.
2/12 NBA DFS Centers
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN vs. CHA
DK ($10,500) FD ($10,300)
Towns has been the model of consistency this season. The big man has at least 28 DraftKings points in all 35 games played while averaging 49.3 DK points per outing. That includes a stretch in which Towns didn’t win a game for a month, so, imagine how good he could be in a win. That could definitely be the case here, facing a Charlotte club who sits 27th in defensive efficiency. That doesn’t even take into consideration that they surrender the most fantasy points in the league to opposing centers. In their one meeting this season, Towns dropped 82.3 DraftKings points in just 27 minutes of action in arguably the best game of his career.
Dewayne Dedmon, ATL at CLE
DK ($4,700) FD ($5,400)
Clint Capela appears to be the future center for the Hawks but Dedmon is a sneaky value until he gets healthy. Since being traded back to Atlanta, Dedmon is averaging 31.4 DK points per game across 31 minutes of action. That extends a streak in which Dedmon is averaging 37 fantasy points across 32 minutes over his last four fixtures, making him one of the hottest centers in the league. The matchup is intriguing too, with Cleveland sitting 29th in defensive efficiency while owning a 28th OPRK against opposing centers.
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