NBA DFS Plays for Monday, 12/2: Setting the Pace
After taking Friday off for Thanksgiving, we’re back at it to take care of this 12/2 NBA DFS slate. We left off with some great picks on Wednesday and we’re looking at a six-game slate here. So, let’s go ahead and get into it!
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12/2 NBA DFS Point Guards
Tyus Jones, MEM vs. IND
DK ($5,600) FD ($4,000)
Let’s kick things off with a couple of dirt-cheap price tags. The reason we like Tyus is because he’s filling in for the injured Ja Morant (back). While Jones has made just two starts this season, he’s played at least 22 minutes in seven games. In those seven outings, Jones has at least 18 DK points in all of them while averaging over 24 DraftKings points per game. That makes him really tempting on FanDuel at $4,000, as they’re clearly slow adjusting to his newly expanded role.
Dennis Smith Jr, NYK at MIL
DK ($3,200) FD ($3,600)
With Frank Ntilikina leaving Sunday’s game with a back issue and entering this matchup doubtful, Smith should step in as the starting point guard. That leaves Smith as the only one left, with Elfrid Payton also injured. In the Sunday game where Ntilikina got injured in the first quarter, Smith played 38 minutes while collecting 17 points, seven assists and two blocks. The simple fact is, he’s the only one left and that guarantees him about 30 minutes of play at an unbelievable price tag. That’s huge for such a talented player like this, with Smith showing flashes of brilliance as a top-10 pick back in 2017. We also like that he faces a Milwaukee club who plays at the fastest pace in the NBA while surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing PGs.
12/2 NBA DFS Shooting Guards
Bogdan Bogdanovic, SAC vs. CHI
DK ($6,200) FD ($6,200)
There’s a trend in this article, as we have yet another recommendation because of an injury. Since De’Aaron Fox went down with an ankle issue, Bogdanovic is leading this team with a usage rate north of 25 percent. That has led to him averaging 35.5 DK points across 31.1 minutes a game over his last 10 fixtures. That’s really all you can ask for from a player barely eclipsing $6,000 and it’s clear he’s the focal point of the offense with Fox sidelined. It doesn’t even take into consideration this matchup, with the Bulls ranking as a league-average defense based on efficiency ratings.
Khris Middleton. MIL vs. NYK
DK ($5,700) FD ($6,400)
This is the first guy who’s not benefiting from an injury on his team, as he’s actually benefiting from his own injury. What the heck is this guy saying? What I mean is that we’re looking at a discounted price for Middleton because of his recent injury. We’re talking about a former All-Star who averaged close to 40 DK points per game last season and is currently averaging 31 fantasy points per game this year. The price drop is because he’s been seeing limited minutes in his return from injury but we expect him to get closer to 30 minutes here, with the last game being a 41-point blowout. Getting 30 minutes from a player this talented is golden in the $6,000-range, especially against a 22nd-ranked Knicks defense.
12/2 NBA DFS Small Forwards
T.J. Warren, IND at MEM
DK ($6,200) FD ($6,000)
Warren has been too good to be sitting in the $6,000-range and we’re going to bank on him continuing his recent success against this terrible defense. Let’s start with that matchup, facing a Grizzlies club who sits sixth in pace and 25th in points allowed while surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards. That’s bad news against a guy who has at least 27 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games while averaging 26.6 fantasy points per game for the year.
Alec Burks, GS at ATL
DK ($6,000) FD ($6,200)
Burks has been the best player in Golden State with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and D’Angelo Russell all injured. In fact, he leads the club in shots taken and usage rate since Curry and Russell went down, posting a 25 percent usage rate with this current roster. That’s led to him averaging 31 DK points per game over his last 14 fixtures. We have to love that against Atlanta, with the Hawks ranked 29th in both defensive efficiency and points allowed.
12/2 NBA DFS Power Forwards
Domantas Sabonis, IND at MEM
DK ($8,000) FD ($8,300)
Sabonis is the highest-priced power forward on this slate and rightfully so. This dude has been downright special this season, ranked fourth on the slate with 42.6 DraftKings points per game. The only guys above him are all above $10,000 which proves that Sabonis is still quite a bargain at $8,000. His floor is truly spectacular too, with Sabonis scoring at least 32 fantasy points in 15-straight games. We already discussed the superb matchup against the Grizzlies, with Memphis playing at a blistering pace and surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards.
Richaun Holmes, SAC vs. CHI
DK ($6,500) FD ($6,400)
Holmes has been undervalued on DFS all season long and he’s yet another guy who’s improved because of someone else’s injury. Marvin Bagley happens to be that guy, as Holmes has stepped in as the starter in his absence. Since taking over that role, Holmes is averaging 31 DK points per game over his last 15 fixtures. Chicago is definitely a team we want to exploit too, with the Bulls owning a 30th OPRK against opposing power forwards this season according to DraftKings.
12/2 NBA DFS Centers
Myles Turner, IND at MEM
DK ($5,700) FD ($6,700)
Let’s cap off our Pacers stack with Turner. While he has been struggling a bit this year, he has way too much talent to be priced cheaply. It’s weird to say that a guy averaging more than 27 DK points is struggling but that shows just how valuable he can be. This is a dude who can drop 40 fantasy points on any given night and that alone would be 7X value below $6,000. The reason we think he could reach that here is this matchup, with the Grizzlies allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season. All you need is a double-double and a few blocks for him to reach value and that looks like the floor in this sort of matchup. Look past Turner’s recent struggles and ride him here!
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