NBA DFS Plays for Friday, 12/27: Freak Show
We provided you with a bunch of value plays on Christmas and those of you that read the article were surely full of holiday cheer. We got great ROI from players like George Hill, Damion Lee, Danuel House and Derrick Favors. That’s really our main goal here, as a lineup with all of those guys could have easily gotten at least two studs in there. With that said, we do have a tough slate here and it’ll likely be much tougher to figure out what to do with only five games available. So, let’s get into our 12/27 NBA DFS plays!
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12/27 NBA DFS Point Guards
Chris Paul, OKC at CHA
DK ($7,300) FD ($7,300)
Paul has quietly been one of the most underrated players in the NBA this season. He’s pretty much been the same guy we’ve seen throughout his career but he’s not being priced like it. What’s really been amazing is his consistency, scoring at least 26 DK points in 27-straight games while averaging more than 36 fantasy points per game in that span. That’s really scary considering he’s averaging over 40 DraftKings points per game across his last 11 fixtures. The icing on the cake here is the matchup though, with the Hornets ranked 26th in defensive efficiency.
Aaron Holiday, IND at MIA
DK ($5,400) FD ($4,700)
Holiday has been starting the last three games and it’s done wonders for his fantasy value. Not only did he drop at least 22 DK points in all three fixtures, he also averaged 29.7 DraftKings points per game across 31 minutes of action in that span. That’s all you can hope for from a player this cheap and it’s very possible that he’ll look at even more ball-handling duties and minutes with Malcolm Brogdon possibly missing this game.
12/27 NBA DFS Shooting Guards
Devin Booker, PHX at GS
DK ($6,900) FD ($6,900)
Booker is in a bit of a slump right now but it’s lowered his price to this tempting number. We’re talking about a guy who was $8,800 about two weeks ago and $8,300 eight days prior. That’s quite the price drop and it’s really bizarre considering this might be the easiest matchup he’s had in that stretch. Getting to face a 23rd-ranked Warriors defense is a major reason why we like the matchup but the 2.5-point spread and 224-point total should keep this game close, garnering Booker even more shots, minutes and usage than normal.
Khris Middleton, MIL at ATL
DK ($7,000) FD ($7,400)
Milwaukee is going to be one of the most popular teams on the slate and it’s easy to see why. Atlanta has the worst defensive numbers over the last month and Milwaukee currently sits first in offensive efficiency. In addition, the Hawks allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season. That’s why the Bucks are projected for 125 points and why Middleton is one of the best plays on the board. Since re-capturing the starting role, Middleton has at least 25 DK points in 12-straight games while averaging 35 fantasy points per game in that span.
12/27 NBA DFS Small Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL at ATL
DK ($11,300) FD ($11.600)
I always try to keep these recommendations below $10,000 but with such limited options available, it’s impossible to fade Giannis. This dude ranks second among all players with 60.8 DK points per game, averaging over 1.9 DK points per minute. That means he can produce in blowouts and that could be the case here with Milwaukee projected for the highest total on the slate. In his two games against this 29th-ranked Hawks defense, Antetokounmpo is averaging 55.6 DK points per game in 32 minutes of play. Don’t fade raw points like that from the only true stud on this slate.
Alec Burks, GS vs. PHX
DK ($6,100) FD ($5,900)
Burks has been too good to be sitting in this $6,000-range. Scoring at least 22 DK points in 14-straight games shows the kind of floor that this guy has but he’s also averaging 32.2 fantasy points per game in that span. That’s an awesome total from someone in this price range and we love that he faces a Phoenix team who sits 24th in total defense. As long as Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are out, Burks should be one of the team leaders in usage rate, minutes played and shots taken.
12/27 NBA DFS Power Forwards
Draymond Green, GS vs. PHX
DK ($6,300) FD ($6,500)
The power forward position is an absolute nightmare on this slate, so let’s just go with Draymond as our only recommendation. While many people have talked down Green all season long saying he can’t produce without Curry and Thompson, his recent numbers say otherwise. Over his last 15 games., Green is averaging 31.4 DK points per game. What we really like is that he’s playing more than 32 minutes a game over his last seven fixtures, indicating that Steve Kerr’s 30-minute cap was a major farce. If he plays 32-plus minutes against the Suns, Green should have no problem reaching at least 5X value.
12/27 NBA DFS Centers
Brook Lopez, MIL at ATL
DK ($5,200) FD ($4,900)
Since we got in Giannis as a premier player earlier on, let’s provide a couple of values at center. Lopez is just that, scoring at least 31 DK points in three of his last four games while averaging over 32 fantasy points per game in that span. That’s the production of a player above $6,000 and it’s hard to understand why he remains so cheap on both sites. That doesn’t even take into consideration this matchup, facing a Hawks team who sits 29th in defensive efficiency.
Willie Cauley-Stein, GS vs. PHX
DK ($4,500) FD ($6,100)
While this FanDuel price is right around where it should be, this DraftKings price makes no sense at all. The Golden State big man has scored at least 24 DK points in five-straight games, averaging 32 fantasy points per game in that span. That’s a ridiculous total from a player sitting at $4,500 and the recent production is backed up by the fact that he’s reached season-highs in minutes in back-to-back games (30 and 31 minutes)> If a guy with this much potential is seeing 30 minutes regularly, I’d argue he should be sitting around $6,500 on DK, making this a $2,000 discount. The best part of all of this might be the matchup though, with the Suns surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
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