Wednesday brings with it another jam-packed MLB slate. That means another chance to cash in on some MLB player props. As I preach each week, verify lineups before placing any wagers and always shop for the best price if possible. With that out of the way, let’s get to the props! Here are three of my favorite plays for Wednesday, May 10.
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MLB Player Props for May 10
Bryan Reynolds OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+105, DraftKings)
Today is a happy day, dear reader. I get to write up a prop where I target Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Antonio Senzatela. It has been far too long. Senzatela tore his ACL last August, and his knee may have healed faster than my wallet – er, heart – did. But he is back, and I am picking Bryan Reynolds to record at least two total bases in Wednesday’s matinee.
First, a few words of caution regarding this player prop. Per Statcast, Senzatela’s fastball was about 1.3 MPH faster in his 2023 debut than last year’s version. It also had a bit more movement than it did a season ago. However, I am chalking that up to adrenaline in his first game of the season as opposed to a tangible change he has made. To his credit, he pitched well last week and hit his spots. But I think that only lasts so long.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have unfortunately begun their descent towards Earth recently. They have scored just 12 total runs in their last nine games. But Bryan Reynolds has remained relatively consistent. He has recorded multiple total bases in five of those nine games and eight of 12 overall. Reynolds has also continued to crush right-handed pitchers this year. He is slugging .645 versus righties. For reference, Brent Rooker is the only MLB player with an overall SLG higher than .645 this year, and Aaron Judge was the only player with a higher overall number in 2022. Reynolds has two doubles in three career plate appearances against Senzatela. I expect him to build on those numbers on Wednesday.
Wade Miley UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-148, FanDuel)
I do not blame anyone who balks at paying this price. However, I do offer an alternative below if you keep reading. In the meantime, let me address Wade Miley and his Wednesday matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers have struggled versus left-handed pitching this season. They have the fifth-highest strikeout rate against southpaws with a 26.9 percent rate and are eighth-worst in wRC+ versus lefties at 86. Miley has gotten off to a solid start to the season. He enters this matchup with a 3-1 record and a 2.31 ERA. Have I convinced you yet? Probably not. OK, let me highlight another set of numbers instead.
First is Miley’s 15 percent strikeout rate. That is the third lowest among 79 qualified starting pitchers this season. And if you think that’s bad, Miley has just 13 strikeouts in 108 plate appearances against currently available Dodger hitters. That is good for a 12 percent strikeout rate. And it gets even worse than that! Those numbers include five strikeouts in 21 plate appearances against the duo of Jason Heyward and… Clayton Kershaw. Heyward has just four at-bats against left-handed pitchers this year, so I am guessing we don’t see him in Wednesday’s lineup. Kershaw will be on the field, but he should generally stay about 60 feet and six inches from the batter’s box. That means Miley has only eight strikeouts in 87 plate appearances against hitters he is likely to face on Wednesday. That nine percent strikeout rate would make Cal Quantrill blush.
As for the alternative I mentioned above – you can combine this with another player prop to increase the payout. If you are to go that route, I would consider Mookie Betts to get a hit. Betts should lead off and has good career numbers versus Miley. Betts is 9-for-16 with five extra-base hits lifetime against the Brewers’ southpaw. Adding a Betts hit to this turns this from a -148 payout into a +121 payout. However, Betts has just four hits in his last six games. He has also walked twice against Miley in their careers. For those reasons, I will stick with strictly the Miley strikeouts for this play.
Dean Kremer OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-110, Caesars)
The Baltimore Orioles host the Tampa Bay Rays in the rubber match of their three-game set on Wednesday. The first two games of this set featured excellent pitching on both sides. I am not expecting Wednesday’s game to follow suit, particularly as it relates to Baltimore starter Dean Kremer.
Kremer enters this matchup with an unsightly 5.80 ERA, and he has allowed at least four earned runs in five of seven starts. Yet his underlying metrics suggest that he may even be worse than that. He has a 7.26 xERA and ranks in the sixth percentile or lower in several expected categories including xBA, xSLG, and xERA/xwOBA. Kremer also places in the 25th percentile or lower in barrel and hard-hit rates as well as chase and strikeout rates. He is not the type of pitcher we want to trust in a good matchup, much less one against the Rays. Tampa leads all of baseball with a 139 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. I expect the Rays to come out swinging and put up some crooked numbers against Kremer, making this one of my favorite MLB player props on Wednesday’s slate.