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MLB Player Props for July 26

This week’s edition of my MLB Player Props column features a trio of hitters who have been raking at the plate over the past few weeks. Their matchups for Wednesday offer varying degrees of difficulty, but I believe each hitter will ultimately prevail. I just happened to play all three of these on DraftKings, but these prices are not set in stone. Not every sportsbook has posted prices as of this writing, and the markets change constantly. Make sure you get the best price available if you are tailing any or all of these player props. With all that out of the way, here are my favorite props for Wednesday’s action.

More great fantasy baseball advice and analysis: Waiver Wire & FAAB Recommendations | Daily MLB Injury Report | MLB DFS Picks | Line-up Analysis | Dynasty Rankings and Strategy | MLB Bullpen Updates | MLB Player Props | Prospect Rankings & Analysis | Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers

MLB Player Props for July 26

Christian Yelich OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-105, DraftKings)


Christian Yelich has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball since the calendar flipped to July. He has hit safely in 17 of 19 games overall, including seven straight. And he is hitting the ball with authority. Yelich has a .692 slugging percentage this month. That includes 13 extra-base hits. As a result, he has recorded at least two total bases in 14 of those 19 contests. I expect Yelich to continue to roll on Wednesday when he and the Milwaukee Brewers host the Cincinnati Reds and Ben Lively.

The Reds’ right-hander has only made 10 starts this year, but three have come against the Brew Crew. Wednesday’s start will also mark the third time that Lively has faced Milwaukee during July. That familiarity should only help Yelich, who is already 4-for-11 with three extra bases lifetime against Lively. Lively has some odd splits, but I think a couple of items are worth noting. Lively allows a .504 slugging percentage to left-handed batters, compared to a .354 mark for righties. He also cedes a .276 batting average on the road, versus a .209 clip at home. Lively has failed to go five innings in his last two starts, so his leash may be a bit short. But nobody in Cincinnati’s bullpen scares me off this play except for Alexis Diaz. This is my top MLB player prop of the day.

Rafael Devers OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+120, DraftKings)


Rafael Devers has been swinging a hot bat since the All-Star break. In his last eight games, Devers is hitting .406 with 13 total hits. Six of those hits have gone for extra bases, including four home runs. Devers has gone over his total base player prop in six of those eight games. On Wednesday, Devers will be pitted against Braves ace Spencer Strider. Despite the difficult draw, I think Devers can get the best of Strider in this matchup.

Strider’s stuff is out of this world, but his arsenal is not exactly diverse. Strider throws three pitches to left-handed batters – a four-seam fastball (60 percent), a slider (28 percent), and a changeup (12 percent). Devers has an expected slugging percentage (xSLG) of .614 versus four-seamers and .733 against sliders. His .469 xSLG against changeups is his worst in five years, but it is still not half bad. He also has a hard-hit rate of 50 percent or higher against all three pitches. Devers ranks in the 89th percentile in barrel rate on the season. For all of Strider’s accolades, hitters have been able to square him up on occasion. For the season, he ranks in just the 21st percentile in barrel rate allowed. He has also allowed the seventh-highest BABIP (.330) among 83 pitchers with at least 90 innings pitched. 

Strider has an unmatched ability to strike opposing hitters out. But Devers can hold his own in that department. Devers has struck out in only 15.6 percent of his plate appearances at Fenway Park this season. This matchup features strength against strength. Given three opportunities at the dish, I expect Devers to be able to make solid contact against Strider on Wednesday and record at least two total bases. Getting this at plus money makes it one of my favorite MLB player props on the slate.

Mike Tauchman OVER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-120, DraftKings)


The Chicago Cubs have been one of the better offenses in baseball for the past few weeks. They have scored 117 runs over their past 19 games, good for just over six per game. Several players have stepped up their offensive game during this stretch. One of those players is Mike Tauchman. Of course, as soon as I identified Tauchman as a player I wanted exposure to on Wednesday, he went 0-for-5 on Tuesday night. But I am going to ignore that performance for a couple of reasons. First, before that game, Tauchman had exceeded this number in seven consecutive starts. Another reason is that he has a prime matchup facing Lance Lynn of the crosstown rival White Sox.

Lynn has been obliterated by left-handed hitters all year long. Collectively, they are hitting .338 with a .402 on-base percentage, .653 slugging percentage, and a .441 wOBA. Basically, every left-handed bat who faces Lynn might as well be Shohei Ohtani (.302-.398-.674-.439). Tauchman has emerged as the Cubs’ leadoff hitter when the club faces right-handed pitching. That means he should face Lynn at least three times. Despite Lynn’s dreadful results, he has faced at least 22 hitters in every start. When they square off on Wednesday, I am giving Tauchman the edge.

Lynn essentially throws every pitch there is in today’s game, so narrowing down his pitch mix is not the easiest exercise. But he throws a four-seamer, cutter, or changeup roughly 80 percent of the time against lefties. Tauchman has an xwOBA of .388 or higher against all three of those offerings. He also has a Run-Value of +3 or higher on all three pitches. Between the Cubs’ hot hitting and Lynn’s struggles, I expect plenty of baserunners for the Northsiders. That should increase the likelihood that Mike Tauchman will contribute in multiple categories. Because of that, I am picking him to exceed his hits+runs+RBI prop in this game. The White Sox also will likely only have one southpaw available out of their bullpen after Tanner Banks threw 29 pitches on Tuesday.

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