Monday’s MLB DFS slate features another tough decision about what to do with Coors Field and a game with an implied run total of almost 12 runs. It makes it easier to fit in batters from this game and from other high-total teams such as the Padres and Diamondbacks because there is essentially one pitcher above $10,000 on both sites that is worth using. But as is always the case with Coors Field, how we choose to handle this game will determine our fates in tournaments tonight.
If you have any thoughts or recommendations for how we can better cover MLB DFS in 2023, reach out to us on Twitter or send me a message (@CableBoxScore). I’m always happy to talk a little DFS throughout the day, and let’s win some slates together! Let’s start by looking at weather issues for Monday as well as the best hitting and pitching environments on the main slate today.
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MLB DFS Picks and Plays for May 15
Today’s analysis covers the ten-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel at 7:07 PM ET.
Weather Concerns:
- St. Louis looks to be rainy throughout the day with chances around 20% as game time approaches at 7:05 PM CT.
- There is a slight chance of rain in Colorado, but does not look like anything that will impact the game.
Best Hitter’s Parks:
- Coors Field
- Dodger Stadium
- Fenway Park
Best Pitcher’s Parks:
- Oakland Coliseum
- Petco Park
- Busch Stadium
DraftKings Top Plays
High-Dollar Pitcher
Framber Valdez ($10,700) vs. Chicago Cubs – There really is not much at the high end of pitching tonight, so most lineups will start with locking in Framber Valdez against a very beatable Chicago Cubs team. Valdez has seven straight quality starts and has really ramped up the strikeouts lately as well. He has eight or more Ks in three of his last four games including 12 against the Angels in his last start. As a team the Cubs are striking out 22.5% of the time and are bottom 10 in the league in ground ball rate, which is, of course, Valdez’s specialty.
Value Pitcher
Michael Wacha ($7,900) vs. Kansas City Royals – About a month ago, Wacha went through a terrible two-game stretch against the Angels and Brewers, but has bounced back since. He has allowed four total earned runs over his last three starts and completely shut down the Twins in his last start on May 9th. The Royals have the second-lowest on-base percentage in the league this season and rank 26th in wRC+ as a team.
High-Dollar Infielder
Austin Riley ($5,100) vs. Cole Ragans – Making a spot start so Dane Dunning and Nathan Eovaldi can get more rest, Cole Ragans looks and sounds like he should be starring on an episode of Yellowstone instead of starting against the National League’s most potent offense. Riley has a .402 wOBA and a .289 ISO against lefties this season and Ragans in his sporadic innings is giving up 41% fly balls to right handers this year. Riley is a great bet for a home run down in muggy Texas tonight.
Value Infielder
Jake Cronenworth ($3,800) vs. Kansas City Royals – Brad Keller is in the running for the worst pitcher in the league this year, but the Royals really have no other options to turn to. Keller allows a .365 wOBA to lefties to go along with a 41% hard hit rate which is compounded by the fact that he is only striking out 16% of batters this year. On Cronenworth’s side, he hits almost 45% fly balls against righties this year and should have a prime spot batting second in the order for a team with a 5.3 implied run total.
High-Dollar Outfielder
Juan Soto ($5,300) vs. Kansas City Royals – Soto cooled off with an 0-for-4 performance on Sunday, but he has been one of the hottest hitters on the planet in the two weeks leading up to that game. In fact, Soto has been the sixth-most valuable fantasy hitter over the last week and he has finally combined his elite on-base ability with his power this season. Keller allows a phenomenally bad .365 wOBA to left-handed batters this year.
Value Outfielder
Stuart Fairchild ($2,500) vs. Colorado Rockies – The Cincinnati Reds have the highest implied total on the slate tonight at just shy of six runs. They face Connor Seabold who has gone five innings just twice and had over three strikeouts once this season. Fairchild will likely bat low in the batting order for the Reds, but has a 48% fly ball rate against right-handers this year which pairs well with the 52.6% hard contact that Seabold allows to right-handers since the start of the 2023 season.
Best DraftKings Stack
San Diego Padres vs. Brad Keller – You’ll definitely be paying up for Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis in this matchup, but at least five batters in the Padres’ lineup will be under $4,000 and they have the fourth-highest implied total of the night despite playing at one of the best pitchers’ parks on the slate. Since the start of 2022, Tatis, Soto, Machado, Bogaerts, and the very cheap Matt Carpenter all have a wOBA above .320 against right-handed pitchers and only Carpenter strikes out a rate higher than 23%.
FanDuel Top Plays
High-Dollar Pitcher
George Kirby ($10,000) @ Boston Red Sox – The right answer here again is Framber Valdez, but there is certainly at least a case to be made that we can save $700 and go down to Kirby considering his recent strong play. Kirby has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts and has walked just two batters in his last 40 innings.
Value Pitcher
Jack Flaherty ($8,200) vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Below $9,000 on FanDuel is really a wasteland of pitchers tonight, so I don’t recommend swimming in those waters. But if you must, Flaherty at least has upside to strikeout 7-9 batters. Milwaukee is fifth in the majors with a 24.7% strikeout rate and their slugging percentage is bottom half of the league.
High-Dollar Infielder
Jonathan India ($4,100) vs. Colorado Rockies – India has an incredible .378 wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season and has risen his hard contact rate against them to 45.2%. The best thing about India is he puts the ball in play a ton (14% strikeout rate), which should serve him well as the leadoff hitter in this runs bonanza at Coors tonight.
Value Infielder
Josh Rojas ($2,900) vs. Oakland Athletics – Besides the popular Reds, Rockies, and Padres, the Diamondbacks might be an overlooked team tonight despite their 5.4 implied run total. Oakland is throwing Drew Rucinski out there tonight who has pitched just over 14 innings this season. He has allowed 21 hits and nine walks in that time and is likely to get lit up tonight. The cheap Rojas at the top of the lineup is a great bet tonight.
High-Dollar Outfielder
Ronald Acuna, Jr. ($4,600) vs. Texas Rangers – As discussed in the Austin Riley blurb, we’ve got a guy on the mound for the Rangers who has 54 total innings under his belt in MLB and has a 5.00 ERA in both 2022 and 2023. Ragans is not likely long for this game, but that’s ok for guys like Acuna, Riley, Matt Olson, and Ozzie Albies. The Rangers’ bullpen has the seventh-lowest strikeout rate in the league and Acuna has a .436 wOBA against left-handers this season.
Value Outfielder
Jake Fraley ($3,400) – vs. Colorado Rockies – Before Sunday’s mediocre performance, Jake Fraley had been on the heater of his life, averaging 33 FanDuel points in the three previous games. Now, he gets to bat second at Coors for a team with an implied run total close to six with a team-high .392 wOBA against right-handers this year.
Best FanDuel Stack
Cincinnati Reds vs. Connor Seabold – For Cincinnati tonight, Jonathan India is the only player in the lineup who will be listed over $3,500 in salary. You can mix and match really however you want, loading up on lefties like Fraley of TJ Friedl. Or you can go right-handed with Nick Senzel, Spencer Steer, and Tyler Stephenson. Stacking a cheap Reds’ lineup allows you to get whatever pitcher you want and then a few other solid bats across your lineup. Connor Seabold is also allowing an obscene .517 slugging percentage at home this year, so the Reds should be able to knock him around.