Around this time of year I always find it fascinating and insightful to do a dynasty mock and see how player values have changed and where players would go if you were drafting a dynasty start up.
For this mock, we did a 16-team roto dynasty with daily lineups and with the following categories:
HR, RBI, R, SB, OBP, K, ERA, Saves+Hold/2, QA7, and WHIP
Remember QA7 is: “1 point if IP >= 4 && IP <= 4 2/3 and ER <= 1, or IP >= 5 && IP <= 6 2/3 and ER <= 2, or IP >= 7 and ER <= 3,” effectively a better attempt at QS
We are drafting 40-man rosters with the following breakdown:
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, 4 OF, 1 UT, 9 P with no rules on reserves or minor differentiation.
In order to do this experiment I brought together a crew of sharp dynasty minds, listed in order of randomly generated draft position:
- @MichaelWaterloo – The Athletic, FantasyPros, The Game Day MLB, & annakendrick.org
- @Drewisokay – SP Streamer & The Next Pick
- @RyanFelixFerna1 – The Dynasty Guru
- @CorporalEddy – Fantasy Six Pack
- @IanCundall – Sox Prospects
- @EricCross04 – FatnraxHQ, Fantasy Pros, and Toolshed
- @ProspectPeyton – SP Streamer & 80 Grade Dynasty
- @Mags_S20 – D1S Commissioner’s Office
- @TCasesLoaded – The Dynasty Guru, Join the Ranks, & Dynasty’s Child
- @GatorSosa – Prospects 1500
- @DevJake – Over the Monster
- @bwelch21 – Free Agent
- @TBDubbs11 – Prospects 1500
- @DrewSpurling – Fantasy Six Pack
- @Jaroche6 – Baseball Prospectus & TINO
- @dynastyonestop – FantraxHQ, D1S, & D1S Commissioner’s Office
You can see all draft results and follow along here, but let’s dive into some of the picks that stand out. Throughout this piece we’ll be using Chris Clegg’s OBP dynasty rankings that he just updated and you should certainly check out here.
In this mock we see the breakdown of the big 3 of Juan Soto, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Fernando Tatís Jr being auto top 3, as Soto stayed the first pick, but then Drew took Julio Rodriguez, Ryan took Jose Ramirez at 3, Shohei Ohtani (remember – daily league) went to Dave at 4, and then Ian and Eric were able to take Acuña Jr. and Tatís Jr. at 5 and 6 respectively. While I can understand some concern on Tatís with the incessant injuries, Acuña lasting to 5 shocked me since he’s done nothing but impress since he got back on the big league field. It’s worth noting Chris still has those big 3 as his top 3 in the ranking, followed by the other 3 who went in the top 6. So, nothing crazy here at all. It is also notable that Chris ranks Ohtani for a weekly format whereas this is a daily format, which certainly moves him up and, in my opinion, makes a very strong case for him first overall.
We then saw Yordan Alvarez (9 in Chris’ ranks) go 7th, Kyle Tucker (12) go 8th, Bryce Harper (7) 9th, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (8) 10th, Rafael Devers (14) 11th, Mike Trout (10) 12th, Luis Robert (15) 13th, Trea Turner (11) 14th, Wander Franco (21) 15th , and Bo Bichette (19) 16th. So again, n0thing all that out of expectation or order in that first round in terms of how they line up with Chris’ just updated rankings, but, just as when you look at the previous ranking column in Chris, you notice that Julio Rodriguez made the biggest jump as he’s proven himself in his time up with Seattle with 11 homers, 19 steals, and a 269/331/444 slash at just 21 years old.
So, given a chalk-ish first round, as the draft nears the half-way point who are some players who have been taken at dramatically different draft slot/values then where Chris ranks them? Now – of course ranks and draft value with team builds, contention, and categories (though Chris does assume saves+holds so closer to the reliever valuing of this league than a straight saves league), do not equal ranks, but this still provides a good check.
First, the picks with the best “value” were Brady House to @TCasesloaded, ranked 156, drafted 280 overall with a 124 gap and Nick Yorke to @DevJake, drafted 278 but ranked 172 for a 106 gap. The next 3 top values all went to @drewspurling1, taking some more veteran players with DJ LeMahieu (ranked 147, drafted 238), Mitch Haniger (ranked 185, drafted 275), and Max Muncy (ranked 120, drafted 206). Besides House, Yorke, and then Jordan Lawlar (rank 75 drafted 155 by @EricCross04) and Vinne Pasquantino (ranked 98, drafted 176 by me) a bit later, many of those with the best “value” were players who were on the “wrong” side of 30, as even in the sharpest of room we still tend to see a 3 at the beginning of an age and shy away.
Now, on the other side, what players were drafted much higher than where Chris ranked them:
@TCasesLoaded took Kenley Jansen 233 with ranking 467, @TBDubbs11 took David Bednar 237 with rank 448. However, as noted, Chris ranks for save+hold and this formt is saves+hold/2, so closers do have more value in the mock format then in the format Chris has in mind with his ranks. Additionally, relievers are one of the places where team build and contention can really force us to throw out rankings if building up a roster in that way. The remaining picks that were above 100 in gap of rank and pick:
|Ranking||Player||Draft Team||Pick number||Difference|
|414||Thairo Estrada||Drew Wheeler @drewisokay||255||159|
So, within this we’ve got a slew of prospects, the roto league destroying breakout Jon Berti, the veteran Miles Mikolas who keeps performing very well, and the ancient and ageless Nelson Cruz. While the Berti pick both surprised me and didn’t, I was also surprised by where Hunter Greene and Luis Arraez went. Greene in particular was surprising given the other arms still on the board when Green went, going ahead of the likes of Walker Buehler, Joe Musgrove, Brandon Woodruff, Shane Bieber, Dylan Cease (whom Jesse Roche rudely sniped me on), Julio Urias, Max Fried, Shane Baz, and Zach Wheeler. That said, I guess Ryan really likes Greene and I’ve certainly seen picks in mocks like this surprise me before that in retrospect end up looking just fine so we’ll see how that one develops! Moreover, for your purpose, if you roster Greene in a league and someone in the league is as high on him as Ryan, it may be worth seeing if you can trade him there.
Take a look at the draft board and Chris’ ranks as you keep looking to make trades and progress in the season so that you can try to accurately gauge value on players as you make those deals!