The Phillies have signed Jake Arrieta (92nd ADP) to a three-year, $75 million deal. While the Phillies may not necessarily contend in 2018, they are putting the pieces together for a run soon.
The 32-year-old righty’s results declined for a second straight season, with his ERA going from 1.77 (2015) to 3.10 (2016) to 3.53 (2017). Most of the decline is from his fastball going from averaging 94.6 mph to 92.1 mph. Additionally, his strikeout rate has dropped from 27% to 23%. Most of his 2018 value will be tied to stopping this downward trend.
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The rest of his value will be dependent on continuing to post a sub-.300 BABIP. Since joining the Cubs, he’s posted a low .253 BABIP. The key is determining how much of his BABIP is from Arrieta’s talent and how much is from a loaded Cubs team. The Phillies’ defense is a step below the Cubs, so his stats may suffer.
Besides a weaker defense, Arrieta is likely to get less run support from the rebuilding Phillies’ lineup. Finally, he’s going from a neutral home park to one that is hitter friendly. This move is not ideal for Arrieta’s fantasy value. I project a 4.00 ERA and 8.0 K/9 in 2018.
The Phillies don’t have the deepest rotation, so it’s tough to figure out which sub-replacement level arm loses out. Some combination of Vince Velasquez, Ben Lively, Mark Leiter, and Zach Eflin were battling it out for the last two rotation spots. There is just not much fantasy value at the back of this rotation.
Previous Hot Stove Analysis
Twins Rent Lance Lynn for 2018
Jonathan Lucroy Settles with Oakland
Kansas City Brings Back Mike Moustakas
Royals Replace Hosmer with Lucas Duda
Rangers Add Tim Lincecum to Bullpen
Logan Morrison Finds Home with Twins
Corey Dickerson Traded to Pirates
Yankees, Rays, Diamondbacks Complete Three-Team Trade
Rays Acquire C.J. Cron, Designate Corey Dickerson
Jake Odorizzi Traded to the Twins
Eduardo Nunez Inks Deal with Red Sox
Cardinals Add Bud Norris to Crowded Bullpen
Cubs Get Their Ace, Sign Yu Darvish
Mets Add Todd Frazier on Two-Year Deal
Royals and Athletics Swap Parts
Miami Sends Christian Yelich to Brewers
Blue Jays Acquire Randal Grichuk
Blue Jays Sign Curtis Granderson
Giants Trade for Andrew McCutchen
Twins Grab Their Closer, Sign Addison Reed
Mets Bring Back Jay Bruce on Three-Year Deal
Toronto Acquires Yangervis Solarte from San Diego
Royals, Dodgers, and White Sox Complete Three-Way Trade
Rockies Fill Closer Vacancy with Wade Davis
Arizona Adds Bullpen Depth with Yoshihisa Hirano
Indians Fill First-Base Void with Yonder Alonso
Brewers Bolster Rotation with Jhoulys Chacin
Orioles Lose Zach Britton, Brad Brach Likely Closer
Giants Add Evan Longoria, Rays Create a Mess
Red Sox Bring Back Mitch Moreland
CC Sabathia Returns to Yankees
Dodgers-Braves Make Five-Player Trade
Angels in the Infield: Zack Cozart Signs with Los Angeles
Phillies Ink Carlos Santana to Three-Year Deal
Everyone’s Signing Relievers, But Who Will Close?
Cardinals Finally Get Their Marlins Outfielder
Cubs and Twins Gamble on Smyly and Pineda
Chase Headley Gets Dumped on Padres
Cubs and Cardinals Add Potential Closers
Giancarlo Stanton Joins Yankees
Wellington Castillo Inks Deal with White Sox
Potential Closers Traded: Boxberger and Johnson