In playing fantasy baseball, at the end of the day, there are no absolutes. While we might think that is the case, and there are certainly strategy pillars to hang on to, it is not that simple. There are general strategy tenets regarding how early you draft a closer, but each league is different.
If you are looking for a simple answer to the question, you will certainly find that here. Perhaps more importantly, we will break down our strategy from various different angles. And then we will get to the ultimate answer.
Factors to Consider When Drafting a Closer
What League Are You Playing In?
This might be the most important factor to consider. The high stakes (NFBC) game is very different than your “home” league with friends. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter what league you are playing in or what the buy in is, as long as you enjoying the game. But, each setting brings with it a very different mindset.
Players in the NFBC, or any contest with an overall contest, are going to place a greater emphasis on closers. That means closers are going to be pushed up the draft board. Quite simply, it is supply and demand. At the end of the day, all you can do is follow the market.
This means staying very much in tune with the draft market and being aware of your fellow league mates.
Where Are You Drafting?
Choosing your draft position is often a very critical part of draft prep. Your spot in the draft, to some degree, will dictate how you approach the closer market. You never want to be too early in selecting a closer, but if you are on one of the ends in the draft order, it’s possible you could be too late. And when there is a finite supply of closers in the marketplace, being too late is a real problem.
What Are Your League Settings?
There are many studies out there regarding turnover at the closer position, and while we aren’t going to go into overwhelming detail, they all lead to the same place. And that conclusion is that roughly half of the closers on Day 1 of the season will not retain the job all season. When we get into drafts in January compared to drafts in March, that number likely will increase.
Given the movement at the position, we have to understand how easy it is to augment your roster. Do waivers run on a weekly basis or is it a free for all? Can you swoop in the moment a closer blows a save and add his replacement? Is the bidding competitive or relatively easy? Would you potentially run out of waiver dollars in May from bidding on a few potential closers?
The other factor to consider here is trading. In some leagues that is not allowed so it takes away an avenue to improve your team. If you can make trades or free-agent acquisitions with ease, then the need to draft a closer early is not as high.
How Big is Your League?
Some closers are clearly better and more skilled than others, but at some point, saves are saves. While there are other pitching categories to consider and roster management to be aware of, the saves category alone doesn’t pass judgment.
The larger your league is, the more scarcity will come into play. In an eight or 10-team league where there are enough closers to go around, fantasy managers could take a different strategy. That means waiting on the position a few rounds longer than in a 15-team league.
What is Your Objective?
While saves are saves, the ratios and strikeouts that come with them often differ wildly. How you approach your closer strategy should fall in line with your overall targets in the other pitching categories. If you are going to target high-end starting pitchers who strike out more than a batter an inning, then perhaps there is a little more room to work with.
When it comes to an overall contest, you really can’t punt a category. That means being strong across the board, and you need an elite option. For a stand-alone league though, depending on how strong the rest of your team is, punting saves could be a possibility. Completely ignoring the category might be taking it too far, but perhaps you can skip out on the top tier options. This allows you to be strong across the other categories and then you can piece together a few points in the saves category in the later rounds.
When is the Draft?
In January, we really only have clarity on the top options, so it makes sense to target them. When we get closer to the season and have a better viewpoint on all situations, it is a little easier to target the middle to lower tiers.
Saves or Holds?
If your league is combining both saves and holds, then there are more stats available than if we were limited to just saves. That means you can draft more based on skill as the scarcity decreases.
Points or Roto?
While saves are ultimately going to be tied to a specific point value, at the end of the day, it doesn’t matter where your points come from. Drafting should be done with the objective of maximizing points from each position and not necessarily looking at it on a statistical basis.
In conjunction with this, should your league be head-to-head, saves are then just one category of 10. At this point, punting could become quite viable. The only issue in which we need to be aware of, is the fact that relief pitchers could be a category. Should that be the case, then the strategy would be to draft skills and not saves.
How Early Should You Draft a Closer?
Ultimately, you need to know your league. Following ADP is very important here as a large piece of this is market-based.
When it comes to a succinct answer, and that is what was promised, around the third or fourth (15-team leagues) as opposed to fourth or fifth rounds (12-team leagues) is how early you should draft a closer. This will secure an elite option at the position with the intention of getting a jump on your competition.
With respect to your second closer, rounds 10 to 12 are the intended range based on how your draft progresses. There is some latitude here based on how the draft board is progressing. This will provide the proper base with regard to saves.