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Five Reasons Bryce Harper is not a First-Round Pick

You can just feel the excitement! Sure, there is concern that the MLB season may start late, as the players and owners work out their CBA, but that doesn’t stop us from constantly thinking about and preparing for our drafts. Each year, especially in redraft leagues, the draft is the opportunity to start off the new season with as much chance of winning the league as anyone else. Even if your team finished in the cellar the previous season, it’s time to cut bait, fire them all, and start from scratch. All is positive and optimism is at its peak.

Well until it comes time to decide on your first-round pick. Often considered the most important pick of your entire draft, the first pick will set the tone for your team. Will you be well balanced with hitting and pitching? Will you be strong with hitting and just be active on the waiver wire to fill the gaps in your pitching? Or most importantly, will you place your bet on a player that just flat out disappoints – Thanks Mike Trout who single-handedly killed my season last year – I know, not his fault he got injured – but it still hurt. There are many players to choose from to be your first-round pick, but one I recommend you do not choose is Bryce Harper. In fact, here are five reasons why Bryce Harper should not be your first-round pick.

Things look bleak now but there will be baseball in 2022! Why not get a head start and jump in a Fantrax Classic Draft contest? Get a jump on the season with a Best Ball league or maybe a Draft and Hold. Or put some green on the line with a new season-long league to try and conquer. There’s no better time than now to get your baseball on!

Yes, Bryce Harper is the reigning National League MVP, and wow can he sure hit. He is still under 30, with a ton of experience, and the centerpiece of the Phillies. But all that aside, consider

5 Reasons Bryce Harper should not be your first round

1. Bryce Harper should not be your first-round pick because he is not ranked in the Top 12

Based on a 12-team league, Harper does not break into the top 12 from a rankings perspective. Utilizing, and combining, the hitting and pitching rankings from this year’s FantraxHQ Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit, he comes in at 13.

RankPlayerECCCRKMCJDLKMHNC
1Fernando Tatis Jr.11112122
2Juan Soto22221211
3Bryce Harper34435443
4Ronald Acuna Jr.43353555
5Mike Trout87764334
6Mookie Betts76576797
7Kyle Tucker58848689
8Luis Robert656810878
9Yordan Alvarez91099159106
10Aaron Judge10111214711613
11Teoscar Hernandez1112111114141410
12Starling Marte129101012132211
13Cedric Mullins1414141211121717
14Tyler O'Neill1513151517191916
15George Springer191618199152112
16Whit Merrifield1315161313212515
17Eloy Jimenez1719171821162314
18Byron Buxton2417132018102025
19Nick Castellanos1624221716181521
20Randy Arozarena2020191619201326
21Bryan Reynolds1821202629221618
22Ketel Marte2125282220171132
23Giancarlo Stanton2618212730241819
24Brandon Lowe2326302122311222
25J.D. Martinez2223232428272627
26Christian Yelich3928272823233324
27Jesse Winker2527293231282433
28Franmil Reyes3422243636302920
29Jared Walsh2929253327333234
30Cody Bellinger3033262934253629
31Kris Bryant2736322525264131
32Mitch Haniger3231313032294623
33Trent Grisham3535363935343435
34Tommy Edman2843452324365041
35Daulton Varsho3334373426355538
36Kyle Schwarber4040353533393144
37Austin Meadows3639384241324030
38Jarred Kelenic3150394045404252
39Alex Verdugo4442444642464542
40Marcell Ozuna5832405838614428
41Joey Gallo4349515149443051
42Jorge Soler5141435656513536
43Ian Happ4745475548522850
44Michael Conforto3746505350532759
45Lourdes Gurriel Jr.5051554340435355
46Alex Kirilloff4157565051414847
47Chris Taylor4960634143374953
48Seiya Suzuki4638416257456443
49Myles Straw4553493744585163
50Akil Baddoo3855524553546246
51Avisail Garcia6544424946477539
52Robbie Grossman4256545458496145
53Dylan Carlson4854704854485258
54Eddie Rosario5648484455508056
55Hunter Renfroe5970604747425472
56Andrew Benintendi5352585765575857
57Austin Hays5558626052677248
58Michael Brantley6847467162667049
59Adolis Garcia5462535267766562
60Andrew Vaughn7464646864593960
61Ramon Laureano6165676360657365
62Jo Adell7061597072557954
63Jesus Sanchez6768656971606066
64Enrique Hernandez6385685963704385
65Harrison Bader7766NR6666567664
66AJ Pollock6263816161777461
67Charlie Blackmon6072576574637773
68Adam Duvall5759696759808469
69Mark Canha7269NR7477625967
70Brandon Nimmo7967668273795768
71Lane Thomas5279807278825678
72Tommy Pham7578757580646670
73Mike Yastrzemski7176737870686984
74Max Kepler10280768076693779
75Anthony Santander8473917375816871
76Josh Rojas837572647986NR87
77Andrew McCutchen6481748981NR9680
78Wil Myers6690878183788588
79Kyle Lewis10487NR8486756382
80Jeff McNeil90777786827110183

Of course, rankings are speculative and in some cases, the gap between two players may be negligible and yes sometimes subjective. It just is what it is and Harper does not make the first-round cut.

2. Bryce Harper should not be your first-round pick because he plays in a position that is stacked

Of all the positions on your fantasy team, the outfield position is the easiest to fill and easiest to replace if a player goes down. Also, many teams have a load of prospects, in the outfield position, just ready to come up and take over. In our Top 250 Hitters for 2022 almost half of the Top 40 are outfielders. That being the case, if you miss out on a first-round outfielder, there will be plenty of fantasy-producing outfielders in the next few rounds.

Some would argue you take the best player on the board, and in many cases that is true. But if the best player is in a stacked position and the one just below him is in a more limited position like C (only 1 in the top 40) or 3B (only 4) I am picking based on the position.

3. Bryce Harper should not be your first-round pick because he may be an injury risk

Let’s be honest, all MLB players are an injury risk. The days of ironmen like Cal Ripken Jr. are long passed. However, according to FanGraphs, Harper missed 21 games last year. Not horrible, compared of course to Mike Trout who missed 126 games (I digress) but we need to make sure our first-rounder stays on the field and in our lineups.

Granted in 2018 and 2019, Harper only missed 8 games total, but prior to that he missed 51 games in 2017. So were 2021 and 2021 the anomaly or were 2018 and 2019. It’s a tough call and with COVID-19 and the apparent increase of time MLB players are spending on the IR, can we count on Harper producing day in and day out.

4. Bryce Harper should not be your first-round pick because his 2021 season was great, but is it repeatable?

Harper is a career .279/.392/.524 hitter. Nothing to sneeze at and those are some great numbers. But those numbers have been really inflated based on three years 2021 (.309/.429/.615) and 2017 (.319/.413/.595) and 2015 (.330/.460/.649). But each year coming off of those great seasons, Harper was unable to produce the same, and in fact he regressed quite a bit.

Year AVG OBP SLG
2015 .330 .460 .649
2016 .243 .373 .441
2017 .319 .413 .595
2018 .249 .393 .496
2021 .309 .429 .615
2022 TBD TBD TBD

Based on previous years, Harper’s numbers are due to regress and history shows that 2022 may not be an MVP type year.

5. Bryce Harper should not be your first-round pick because he simply doesn’t steal enough bases

Harper’s hitting numbers will regress, and the hope would be that my first-round pick would be able to make up that regression with another category like stolen bases for example. In 2016, Harper had a career-low batting average of .243 but was able to make up his lack of putting the ball in play by achieving a career-high 21 stolen bases. However, his career average SB sits at about 10.

If I am going to pick up a big bat that has 10 or fewer stolen bases, I am going to pick up a Vlad Guerrero Jr. or Juan Soto that are expected to progress and increase their hitting numbers vs. a Bryce Harper that I expect to regress.

In all transparency, I am a big Bryce Harper fan and have been since his debut in 2012. I believe he would make a great addition to any fantasy team in 2022. Fantasy league managers just need to manage expectations of him and not go all-in in the first round for him.


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