Fantasy Football ADP Risers and Fallers: Back to Wentzville
Our timelines have been riddled with news on every player. Training camp highlights, coach and player interviews, and injury updates are constantly provided with just us to parse through it all. As fantasy players we have to react to these perceived shifts in value, which in turn drive changes in ADP. As we identify the ADP risers and fallers, draft strategies may have to be adjusted.
The last month has given us enough draft data to frame our expectations as the preseason draws closer. Let’s look those players who seem to be most affected at each position and dig into their new offensive situations as we prepare for the 2019 season.
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Training Camp ADP Risers and Fallers
There are too many options in Philadelphia’s passing attack. But it all intersects at Carson Wentz. He’s slid down to QB9 after another injury-filled season in 2018. Despite this, he still managed six QB1 finishes and a 5.2% TD rate (ranked 13th) prior to his back injury. While the risks of re-injury are ever-present, his past production and improved offensive situation are tough to pass up in the eighth or ninth round. But, we can’t say the same about Andy Dalton.
Dalton himself has perennially been viewed as an afterthought QB, but the skill players at his disposal are coveted fantasy assets. This season injuries have cratered our expectations for Cincinnati. A.J. Green is out for multiple games. Tyler Eifert is still working his way back from injury. Their rookie offensive tackle has been placed on IR.
The greatest effects of these injuries have been seen at the start of drafts as RB and WR ranks have shifted. But, at the same time, it’s certainly dropped our outlook on Dalton. Late-round quarterback builds are still viable in 2019 given the depth at the position, but it’s hard to get excited about Dalton given the latest news.
Ezekiel Elliot’s holdout is causing plenty of discontent among fantasy managers. Not so much for the Dallas Cowboys. Tony Pollard has been filling in for Elliot during camp with positive buzz coming out of Oxnard. Pollard produced at nearly every position on the field while backing up Darrell Henderson; backfield, slot and boundary receiver, and even played special teams. His willingness as a blocker doesn’t quite match his abilities due to a lack of power, but he’s the ideal asset to have given Dallas’ situation. His cost eliminates most of the risk as the team has been looking for a viable candidate to back up Elliot.
Meanwhile, Henderson’s collegiate efficiency and dual-threat ability have publicly earned him the title of the heir apparent to Todd Gurley. Malcolm Brown had been Gurley’s replacement in the past until he was sidelined with a clavicle injury. Without it, we’d have seen Brown in the playoffs and Super Bowl and not C.J. Anderson. He’s been deployed like Gurley and will be in the mix along with Henderson without the single-digit ADP. With his cost slipping, preseason usage must be heavily monitored to properly assess his value going into the season.
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Robert Foster filled a unique role in 2018. As defenses keyed on Josh Allen’s passing struggles, Foster gave them a deep target to watch. His 20 targets of 20 or more air yards were 19th most in the league. Most of which was accomplished in the back half of the season after Allen returned from injury. However, the Bills have added to their wide receiver corps. John Brown has continued to shine on his new team and will limit Foster’s time on the field. His raw athletic ability will be up against Brown’s veteran talent, giving drafters much to ponder in the double-digit rounds.
Meanwhile, Foster’s new teammate, Cole Beasley, continues to slide. Buffalo already has Zay Jones (54.9% slot rate) and added Tyler Kroft and Dawson Knox during the offseason. Both have either rapport with Josh Allen or a large enough target themselves to make the catch. Allen had the fourth-worst completion percentage on throws between 0 and 10 air yards. Beasley’s aDOT has never eclipsed 7.5 yards. Their timing continues to be a problem with more fantasy-friendly options relative to his ADP. Preseason usage and roster cuts will determine his value in 2019.
Noah Fant made his debut at the 2019 Hall of Fame game with an uneven performance. Three targets with a single drop didn’t quite meet expectations, but his ability to run routes and gain separation were readily apparent. This bodes well given Joe Flacco’s tendency towards using the tight end position. He’s targeted the position on 23% of his passes over the past 3 seasons. A lofty target share, but both Emmanuel Sanders and DaeSean Hamilton are returning from injury. The fantasy community has been spoiled by impressive rookie tight end performances, but Fant’s late-round ADP is intriguing given Denver’s offensive situation.
Cameron Brate has been cast aside in the Tampa Bay hype. O.J. Howard is firmly in the starting role with a plethora of receivers to man the slot. The bevy of options at Jameis Winston’s disposal limits Brate’s weekly upside. Prior to Howard’s injury, Brate was at 2.6 targets per game. That jumped to 3.8 post-injury without a significant change between Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick. The tight-end position is already difficult to project on a weekly basis and Brate’s role is unclear at best. The optimal approach is to leave Brate on the waiver wire until more news becomes available.
Look for Value
The preseason will only increase the flow of analysis as we get into draft season. Every snap, dropped pass, and highlight reel will be replayed and broken down ad nauseum. Our ranks and tiers may shift, but that must be reconciled with adjusted ADP. Public opinion can be exploited for players of similar value during drafts. The cost of these ADP risers and fallers can be leveraged to the benefit of our rosters.
Which of these ADP risers or fallers do you have your eye on? Let us know in the comments below! For more great analysis check out the 2019 Fantrax Fantasy Football Draft Kit.
Chris Allen comes from an analytical background, leveraging his data skills with his multiple years of experience across different formats (e.g. seasonal redraft, DFS, MFL10). His primary focus has been the analysis of weather effects and its impact on games, player output variance, and the validity of the associated narratives. Chris’ writings have been featured on multiple websites including Fantrax, 4for4, and, most recently, Sports Illustrated. Chris can also be heard as co-host on the Dynasty Owners Manual podcast and is a member of the FSWA.
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