Fantasy Baseball: Outfield Points League Rankings

“Put me in coach.” “I could be centerfield”! If you haven’t gotten ready for opening day yet by listening to the song, “centerfield”, I highly suggest you stop what you’re doing and listen to it. Well, after reading this article!

If you’re looking for a five-tool player, it may be coming from the outfield. Yet, there are a variety of prototypes you can find at the outfield position. Light-hitting defensive gems, prototypical sluggers, or a mix of the two; the diversity at this position cannot be matched, though I guess that’s to be expected considering there are three spots to fill.

This makes the position very intriguing when it comes to fantasy production. Usually, most of content about fantasy baseball is centered on category/roto leagues. That being said, I’d bet that a survey would show that a great proportion of fantasy baseball players partake in points leagues.

While there are some similarities between points leagues and category leagues, the differences vastly outweigh it. In category leagues, you need to focus on reaching certain targets in each category, aiming to build a very balanced team. In points leagues, though, all that matters is the fantasy points provided; it doesn’t matter if it comes from home runs or stolen bases.

With that addressed, it is time for us to examine how players are going to produce from a points league perspective. Most of the time, this is done through standard rankings, which utilize data, intuition, and gut feeling to put players in a specific order of expected production. Yet, there might be a way to simplify the approach even further to have more success.

What do I mean like this? As opposed to standard rankings, these are my own manual projections, with a full explanation here. While there may be players that I prefer that are ranked below certain players, I am aiming to establish enough objectivity to go with the subjective touch of manual projections.

With that, let us get to the rankings! Today, we’ll be focusing on outfielders. As you’d expect, this position is deep in talent, but since many leagues require you to roster five of them, you’ll have to make sure you’re consistently supplementing talent at the position. Will you embrace the depth, or look to get the top-tier stars? That’s up to you; there is no perfect strategy!

So, which outfielders should you be targeting or avoiding? Which outfielders get a boost or drop-off in points leagues as compared to category leagues. Let us dive into it!

Stats via Fangraphs and Baseball Savant

Category League Outfield Projections & Tiers: Part One, Part Two

2022 Points League Outfield Rankings

Rnk	Player	Team	Pos	FPTS
1	Juan Soto	WSH	OF	560
2	Mookie Betts	LAD	OF	532
3	Bryce Harper	PHI	OF	493
4	Kyle Tucker	HOU	OF	480
5	Mike Trout	LAA	OF	475
6	Whit Merrifield	KC	2B, OF	433
7	Ketel Marte	ARI	2B, OF	425
8	Ronald Acuna Jr.	ATL	OF	417
9	Yordan Alvarez	HOU	OF	417
10	George Springer	TOR	OF	415
11	Cedric Mullins	BAL	OF	413
12	Luis Robert	CHW	OF	406
13	Aaron Judge	NYY	OF	402
14	Nick Castellanos	PHI	OF	401
15	Bryan Reynolds	PIT	OF	389
16	Kris Bryant	FA	3B, OF	385
17	Starling Marte	NYM	OF	384
18	JD Martinez	BOS	OF	384
19	Jesse Winker	SEA	OF	379
20	Teoscar Hernandez	TOR	OF	375
21	Byron Buxton	MIN	OF	366
22	Cody Bellinger	LAD	OF	365
23	Seiya Suzuki	CHC	OF	364
24	Christian Yelich	MIL	OF	361
25	Charlie Blackmon	COL	OF	361
26	Tommy Edman	STL	2B, OF	358
27	Marcell Ozuna	ATL	OF	357
28	Alex Verdugo	BOS	OF	357
29	Jorge Soler	MIA	OF	356
30	Trent Grisham	SD	OF	355
31	Austin Meadows	TB	OF	354
32	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	OF	354
33	Mitch Haniger	SEA	OF	351
34	Giancarlo Stanton	NYY	OF	348
35	Hunter Renfroe	MIL	OF	343
36	Michael Conforto	FA	OF	342
37	Enrique Hernandez	LAD	2B, OF	342
38	Michael Brantley	HOU	OF	341
39	Randy Arozarena	TB	OF	340
40	Tyler O'Neill	STL	OF	339
41	Robbie Grossman	DET	OF	339
42	Eloy Jimenez	CHW	OF	339
43	Andrew Benintendi	KC	OF	339
44	Joey Gallo	NYY	OF	333
45	Max Kepler	MIN	OF	333
46	Eddie Rosario	ATL	OF	332
47	Daulton Varsho	ARI	C, OF	323
48	Dylan Carlson	STL	OF	320
49	Ryan Mountcastle	BAL	1B, OF	319
50	Avisail Garcia	MIA	OF	315
51	Randal Grichuk	COL	OF	315
52	Tommy Pham	CIN	OF	315
53	Andrew Vaughn	CHW	OF	315
54	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	TOR	OF	314
55	LaMonte Wade Jr.	SF	1B, OF	313
56	Mark Canha	NYM	OF	311
57	Myles Straw	CLE	OF	310
58	Chris Taylor	LAD	2B, SS, OF	310
59	AJ Pollock	LAD	OF	309
60	Brandon Nimmo	NYM	OF	309
61	Jarred Kelenic	SEA	OF	307
62	Austin Hays	BAL	OF	306
63	Tony Kemp	OAK	2B, OF	301
64	Ian Happ	CHC	OF	301
65	Andrew McCutchen	MIL	OF	298
66	Akil Baddoo	DET	OF	297
67	Luis Arraez	MIN	2B, 3B, OF	294
68	Anthony Santander	BAL	OF	292
69	Jeff McNeil	NYM	2B, 3B, OF	290
70	Mike Yastrzemski	SF	OF	287
71	Harrison Bader	STL	OF	285
72	Alex Kiriloff	MIN	1B, OF	284
73	Tyler Naquin	CIN	OF	279
74	Adam Duvall	ATL	OF	278
75	Nick Senzel	CIN	OF	278
76	Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	SS, OF	274
77	Jesus Sanchez	MIA	OF	274
78	Ramon Laureano	OAK	OF	273
79	Manuel Margot	TB	OF	272
80	Raimel Tapia	TOR	OF	265
81	Aaron Hicks	NYY	OF	263
82	David Peralta	ARI	OF	262
83	Joc Pederson	SF	OF	261
84	Josh Rojas	ARI	2B, SS, OF	258
85	Lane Thomas	WSH	OF	257
86	Lorenzo Cain	MIL	OF	257
87	Jurickson Profar	SD	1B, OF	257
88	Josh Harrison	ARI	2B, 3B, OF	248
89	Wil Myers	SD	OF	248
90	Rafael Ortega	CHC	OF	242
91	Victor Robles	WSH	OF	242
92	Seth Brown	OAK	OF	241
93	Jo Adell	LAA	OF	235
94	Pavin Smith	ARI	1B, OF	235
95	Adolis Garcia	TEX	OF	235
96	Connor Joe	COL	OF	231
97	Brad Miller	TEX	1B, OF	229
98	Riley Greene	DET	OF	226
99	Kole Calhoun	TEX	OF	224
100	Willie Calhoun	TEX	OF	221
101	Hunter Dozier	KC	3B, OF	221
102	Yoshi Tsutsugo	PIT	1B, OF	219
103	Julio Rodriguez	SEA	OF	219
104	Steven Kwan	CLE	OF	218
105	Kyle Lewis	SEA	OF	217
106	Jake Fraley	CIN	OF	210
107	Chas McCormick	HOU	OF	209
108	Darin Ruf	SF	1B, OF	208
109	Garrett Cooper	MIA	OF	205
110	Clint Frazier	CHC	OF	203
111	Michael A. Taylor	KC	OF	201
112	Brandon Marsh	LAA	OF	198
113	Garrett Hampson	COL	2B, OF	196
114	Dominic Smith	NYM	OF	191
115	Tyrone Taylor	MIL	OF	185
116	Sam Hilliard	COL	OF	182
117	Corey Dickerson	STL	OF	178
118	Jorge Mateo	BAL	OF	176
119	Jarren Duran	BOS	OF	162
120	Bryan De La Cruz	MIA	OF	158
121	Vidal Brujan	TB	OF	146
122	Eric Haase	DET	C, OF	143
123	Bradley Zimmer	CLE	OF	136
124	Tyler Wade	LAA	3B, SS, OF	130
125	Dylan Moore	SEA	2B, OF	115
126	Josh Lowe	TB	OF	110
127	Jorge Alfaro	SD	C, OF	106

Who Gets a Boost In Points Leagues?

Player	Team	Roto Rnk	Points Rnk	Diff
Tony Kemp	OAK	94	63	-31
Michael Brantley	HOU	66	38	-28
Jurickson Profar	SD	111	87	-24
Enrique Hernandez	BOS	60	37	-23
Willie Calhoun	TEX	120	100	-20
Jesse Winker	SEA	38	19	-19
Charlie Blackmon	COL	44	25	-19
Alex Verdugo	BOS	47	28	-19
Max Kepler	MIN	64	45	-19
Aaron Hicks	NYY	99	81	-18
Andrew Vaughn	CHW	69	53	-16
Pavin Smith	ARI	110	94	-16
Tommy Edman	STL	41	26	-15
Mark Canha	NYM	71	56	-15
Brandon Nimmo	NYM	75	60	-15
Robbie Grossman	DET	54	41	-13
Seiya Suzuki	CHC	36	23	-13
Andrew McCutchen	MIL	78	65	-13
Kole Calhoun	TEX	112	99	-13
Yoshi Tsutsugo	PIT	115	102	-13
Luis Arraez	MIN	80	67	-13
Ketel Marte	ARI	18	7	-11
David Peralta	ARI	92	82	-10
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	24	15	-9
Steven Kwan	CLE	113	104	-9
Austin Meadows	TB	39	31	-8
Dylan Carlson	STL	56	48	-8
Joc Pederson	SF	91	83	-8
Mike Yastrzemski	SF	77	70	-7
Raimel Tapia	TOR	87	80	-7
Jorge Soler	MIA	35	29	-6
Michael Conforto	FA	42	36	-6
Anthony Santander	BAL	74	68	-6
George Springer	TOR	15	10	-5
Christian Yelich	MIL	29	24	-5
Whit Merrifield	KC	11	6	-5
Kris Bryant	FA	20	16	-4
Trent Grisham	SD	34	30	-4
LaMonte Wade Jr.	SF	59	55	-4
Jeff McNeil	NYM	73	69	-4
Josh Rojas	ARI	88	84	-4
Connor Joe	COL	100	96	-4
Clint Frazier	CHC	114	110	-4
Corey Dickerson	STL	121	117	-4
Vidal Brujan	TB	125	121	-4
Cody Bellinger	LAD	25	22	-3
Andrew Benintendi	KC	46	43	-3
Manuel Margot	TB	82	79	-3
Dominic Smith	NYM	117	114	-3
Bryan De La Cruz	MIA	123	120	-3
Cedric Mullins	BAL	13	11	-2
Victor Robles	WSH	93	91	-2
Dylan Moore	SEA	127	125	-2
Eddie Rosario	ATL	48	46	-2
Tommy Pham	CIN	53	52	-1
JD Martinez	BOS	19	18	-1
Mike Trout	LAA	6	5	-1
Nick Senzel	CIN	76	75	-1
Tyrone Taylor	MIL	116	115	-1

• Michael Brantley and Charlie Blackmon generally get grouped together as “boring” veteran players who will likely give you steady production. Brantley, specifically, gets a boost in points leagues with elite contact skills (10.4% K, 99th percentile). Blackmon, though, also makes plenty of contact (15.6% K), and should be in line for improved power; his expected home run/fly ball rate (13.3%) was much better than his actual 9.9% home run/fly ball rate. In this format, don’t be afraid to make the non-flashy pick!
• The move from Cincinnati to Seattle is the opposite of ideal for Jesse Winker‘s fantasy value. Fortunately, that matters less in points leagues, as he’ll still have his tremendous plate skills (10.9% BB, 15.9% K) to lean on. The likely decrease in batting average and power makes him a tough sell in roto leagues, but much easier in this format.
• Alex Verdugo and Tommy Edman each make noticeable gains in points leagues do their tremendous contact skills. Both were also top underachievers in their respective expected home run/fly ball rate; their production last year is much closer to their floor than their ceiling. That’s music to my ears, and hopefully yours too!
• Speaking of expected home run/fly ball rate, there is a massive difference between how Andrew Vaughn should’ve produced versus how he actually did. In roto leagues, his lack of a strong batting eye or any speed hurts him. In points leagues, though, take advantage of his above-average contact skills mixed with the underlying power (10.9% barrel) he showcased last season. As someone not being drafted as a top-75 outfielder in ESPN targets, he’s an absolute bargain; bet on the breakout.
• Max Kepler, Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo, and Robbie Grossman all aren’t premium targets in roto leagues due to their projected below-average batting average. However, the latter three are all projected to have double-digit walk rates, while Kepler possesses productive plate skills with a lot of power. As we adjust to this format, they’re all relatively reliable sources of production.
• Based on consensus projections, Seiya Suzuki is projected to post a double-digit walk rate with a sub-20% strikeout rate, along with power. That combination is very enticing in this format. There’s obviously some risk when it comes to adjusting from pitching in Japan to in the MLB. At the same time, the reward is also obvious.
• If you want to bet on Dylan Carlson breaking out, which I would be completely content to endorse, this is the best format to do so in. The 23-year-old doesn’t stand out in roto leagues necessarily with an average batting average, and questions about the power and speed. However, he’s already demonstrated strong plate discipline, and could easily see more growth at his age, especially in terms of power; I wouldn’t expect him to strike out as much (24.9% in 2021) either. He’s got a pretty steady floor, but could easily be the player we look back on a year from now and label him as a consensus top-25 outfielder.

Whose Value Decreases In Points Leagues?

Player	Team	Roto Rnk	Points Rnk	Diff
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	40	76	36
Adolis Garcia	TEX	68	95	27
Tyler O'Neill	STL	16	40	24
Randy Arozarena	TB	21	39	18
Wil Myers	SD	72	89	17
Eric Haase	DET	105	122	17
Daulton Varsho	ARI	30	47	17
Ryan Mountcastle	BAL	32	49	17
Eloy Jimenez	CHW	26	42	16
Adam Duvall	ATL	58	74	16
Ramon Laureano	OAK	62	78	16
Akil Baddoo	DET	51	66	15
Chris Taylor	LAD	43	58	15
AJ Pollock	LAD	45	59	14
Jo Adell	LAA	79	93	14
Michael A. Taylor	KC	97	111	14
Joey Gallo	NYY	31	44	13
Riley Greene	DET	85	98	13
Avisail Garcia	MIA	37	50	13
Ian Happ	CHC	52	64	12
Giancarlo Stanton	NYY	22	34	12
Brandon Marsh	LAA	101	112	11
Sam Hilliard	COL	106	116	10
Teoscar Hernandez	TOR	10	20	10
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	23	32	9
Alex Kiriloff	MIN	63	72	9
Seth Brown	OAK	83	92	9
Kyle Lewis	SEA	96	105	9
Jorge Mateo	BAL	109	118	9
Byron Buxton	MIN	12	21	9
Julio Rodriguez	SEA	95	103	8
Jorge Alfaro	SD	119	127	8
Jesus Sanchez	MIA	70	77	7
Brad Miller	TEX	90	97	7
Harrison Bader	STL	65	71	6
Tyler Naquin	CIN	67	73	6
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	TOR	49	54	5
Luis Robert	CHW	7	12	5
Mitch Haniger	SEA	28	33	5
Chas McCormick	HOU	102	107	5
Garrett Cooper	MIA	104	109	5
Garrett Hampson	COL	108	113	5
Aaron Judge	NYY	8	13	5
Jarred Kelenic	SEA	57	61	4
Lane Thomas	WSH	81	85	4
Ronald Acuna Jr.	ATL	5	8	3
Hunter Dozier	KC	98	101	3
Jake Fraley	CIN	103	106	3
Myles Straw	CLE	55	57	2
Hunter Renfroe	MIL	33	35	2
Lorenzo Cain	MIL	84	86	2
Josh Harrison	ARI	86	88	2
Randal Grichuk	COL	50	51	1
Austin Hays	BAL	61	62	1
Rafael Ortega	CHC	89	90	1
Darin Ruf	SF	107	108	1
Jarren Duran	BOS	118	119	1
Bradley Zimmer	CLE	122	123	1

• As we touched on in the roto league outfield projections & tiers, Adolis Garcia had quite the peak month with a weighted on-base average (wOBA) over .400 in May. After that, though, his performance declined significantly. Meanwhile, based on weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+), he was a well below-league average hitter (77 wRC+) from July 1st on; the league clearly adjusted to him, and it’s likely that what we say in May cannot be replicated again. Plus, with his serve plate discipline issues (35.8% chase, 34.4% whiff), he’s the exact type of player that loses significant value in points leagues. Honestly, I’m not sure he’ll finish as a top-100 outfielder in this format.
• Even in Tyler O’Neill‘s breakout season, he still had just a 7.3% walk rate with a very high 31.3% strikeout rate. Based on his quality of contact, his breakout could definitely be legitimate. Nevertheless, this isn’t the format for his power/speed/whiff combination to do damage.
• The chances of Randy Arozarena repeating a .363 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is unlikely, though there are reasons to expect him to maintain a high BABIP. He’s a 20/20 player without a clear weakness, which plays well in roto leagues, but the contact issues (28.1% K) hurt him in this format.
• Eloy Jimenez, Avisail Garcia, Byron Buxton, and Teoscar Hernandez all see their value suppressed in points leagues due to projected walk rates under 7%. All also strike out at relatively high rates, which also impact them negatively.
• On the surface, Akil Baddoo‘s 26.5% strikeout rate seems like a potential liability. However, it did come down to 23.5% after the first month of the season, which is very encouraging. Since his best asset comes from stolen bases, he certainly takes a hit in points league. That being said, it will be very fascinating to see how he continues to adjust to the MLB level; the contact quantity came with less barrels, which is not ideal.
• Ian Happ and Joey Gallo do have above-average walk rates, but both also may strike out 30% of the time or more. Usually, points leagues do a strong job of recapturing real-life offensive value, but, in this case, Happ and Gallo are the outliers.

Top Target: Jorge Soler, Miami Marlins

Everyone in the world could use a little bit of Soler power!

The league’s home run leader in 2019, Soler was long considered to be a breakout candidate based on his prospect pedigree after signing with the Cubs out of Cuba. It appeared to be coming together with that monster season in 2019, but, unfortunately, that production couldn’t be sustained.

In 2020, Soler was still above a league-average hitter with a prodigious 18.9% barrel rate, but his strikeout rate spiked to 34.5%. Then, in 2021, his struggles went to a new level. Through June, his numbers were as poor as it can get:

• 285 PA, .186/.283/.318, .132 ISO, 6 HR, 66 wRC+, 10.2% BB, 28.8% K

To say, the least, that was not ideal. If you drafted Soler, the chances are you probably cut ties with him. The swing-and-misses were there, but the power wasn’t there- it was the worst case scenario for him.

At the same time, there was reason to always be optimistic about Soler bouncing back. He had a 12.1% barrel rate, but he had just an 8.6% home run/fly ball rate; that was bound to improve. After all, his 12.9% barrel rate in the second half wasn’t much better, but his home run/fly ball regressed positively to 24.7% With better batted-ball luck, his power (.277 ISO) got back to the level you’d expect it to be, but there’s more than just luck here. In actuality, Soler made legitimate changes:

From July 1st on, Soler’s strikeout rate dropped down to 18.9%. While that isn’t completely backed up by his underlying data, he did make more contact in the zone, but his overall 23.6% strikeout rate is mainly backed up by a 24.4% expected strikeout rate.

Per Baseball Savant, Soler had seven fewer home runs than expected. With a 50.7% pull rate, there’s no reason this should be the case. Signing with the Marlins isn’t ideal, but it’s much better than Kaufman Stadium, and his power plays anywhere. Essentially, you’re getting top-notch power from him, along with a double-digit walk rate, and the improved strikeout rate boosts him in points leagues. Plus, his lack of speed also matters less in this format, which is why he ranks notably higher in my points league projections/rankings than in roto.

Regardless of format, though, he’s a tremendous target where he’s being drafted. Expect much more of this in 2022:

SOLER POWER!

JORGE SOLER LEADS OFF THE #WORLDSERIES WITH A HOMER! pic.twitter.com/iuC8zkP53y

— MLB (@MLB) October 27, 2021

Top Fade: Eddie Rosario, Atlanta Braves

From one Braves postseason hero to another one!

The last we saw of Eddie Rosario, he was performing like one of the best hitters in baseball. In the postseason, he posted a .383/.456/.617 slash line, winning the NLCS MVP with home runs like this:

MR. OCTOBER EDDIE ROSARIO THREE RUN HOME RUN!
pic.twitter.com/6VY9bJKoph

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) October 24, 2021

Unfortunately, Rosario isn’t quite the same player in the regular season, to say the least. In 2021, he actually rated below-average in wRC+ (98), and there are signs his peak may be behind him. His home-to-first times have been on the decline starting in 2019, while he’s started to pull the ball more often. The combination of the two has hurt his on-base ability, while he also isn’t someone who walks very often.

Meanwhile, after a down year in terms of barrel rate (6.2%) in 2020, Rosario’s power dropped even further with a 5.9% barrel rate in 2021. Honestly, based on his spray charts, it’s surprising he was able to post a .177 ISO:

Rosario’s skillset, an athletic player who expands the zone often, isn’t the type that ages well. Even if the barrel rate improves slightly, he’s likely not getting back to the same power levels he once had, while he’s also not someone going to accumulate points by getting on base much. Sure, the stolen bases help his value for a roto format, but even if they stand, that isn’t enough to carry him. Add in the risk that the strikeout rate eventually balloons with less contact in the zone – his 73.1% contact rate outside the zone was a career-high mark – and it’s likely that he doesn’t finish as the top-35 outfielder he’s being drafted as on ESPN.

If Rosario was being drafted in the mid-40s for outfielders, then he’d be a fine pick. However, this is just a case where the opportunity cost is too high; there are a lot of talented outfielders being drafted around him or after him. As they say, don’t fade the player, but fade the price!