After focusing on the National League for the first lineup analysis of 2023, it is time to shift focus to the American League. We are over a week into the season and there is plenty to discuss. I mean, are the Rays ever going to lose a game? By this point, we have a pretty good understanding of how each team desires to set its lineup. This article will keep you up to date on the latest trends from all 15 teams. The five hottest hitters in the American League are: Adam Duvall, Gleyber Torres, Mike Trout, Matt Chapman, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Keep reading to hear about the rest of the news and notes from around the AL.
Disclaimer: This article is primarily written on the afternoon the day before. I try my best to update trends and the latest news but the stats might be slightly off!
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MLB Lineup Analysis
AL East
New York Yankees
I am sure you know by now that top prospect Anthony Volpe made the Yankees out of Spring Training. He has been a part of every lineup so far batting ninth. The surface numbers do not stick out, but at the very least he is walking a lot and has three stolen bases. He might not Julio Rodriguez, but still profiles to be a useful fantasy asset for the 2023 season. Fellow middle infielder Gleyber Torres is off to an incredibly hot start. He is batting over .400, has five stolen bases, is chasing less, and making more contact. Literally everything we would want to see out of a baseball player. Torres was written off after a few mediocre seasons, but he is still only 26 years old. This hot-start looks completely sustainable and he could wind up being the generational prospect some once predicted he would be.
Aaron Hicks’ playing time has been a hot topic of discussion around New York lately. He was on the bench the first few games of the season in favor of Oswaldo Cabrera and even with Josh Donaldson injured he still has remained out of the lineup. He is yet to get a hit this year and is even behind Franchy Cordero in terms of playing time. Harrison Bader is expected to begin a rehab assignment in the next week or so and will occupy that third outfield spot upon his return.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have settled into a fairly consistent lineup over the first week and a half. Alex Verdugo is batting leadoff against righties and moves down to sixth against lefties. Rob Refsnyder has the honor of batting leadoff against lefties replacing Triston Casas in the lineup. Casas has been one of the bigger disappointments early on this season. The Red Sox clearly do not trust him to hit lefties and he is struggling to barrel the ball up against righties. His increased launch angle is encouraging and still comes with above-average plate discipline. I am remaining patient here, but starting to prepare backup options if this slump continues.
When Adam Duvall signed with Boston, I think everybody figured his value would get a boost with the Green Monster, but I do not think anybody foresaw this start. Duvall is batting .458 with three home runs with incredible contact metrics. The most impressive part is a 14.7% strikeout rate compared to his 28.3% career clip. The season is young but his chase rate is way down, and his contact rates are way up. Duvall has the chance to be one of the biggest surprises of 2023. Batting fifth in the Red Sox lineup should continue to provide him with plenty of RBI opportunities. He left the game on Sunday with an apparent injury and there is growing concern this could result in an IL stint. Raimel Tapia would be my guess for a possible replacement if Duvall is forced to miss any time.
Toronto Blue Jays
There have not been any changes or surprises to the top half of Toronto’s lineup. George Springer leads off followed by Bichette, Vladdy, Varsho, and Chapman. Alejandro Kirk has been batting sixth when he is in the lineup. Kirk is off to a slow start at the plate and with another talented catcher on the roster he will need to pick it up to keep his spot in the lineup. Also, Jansen is a superior defender to Kirk so this is a situation I am monitoring closely.
Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier are listed as platoon options on Roster Resource although both have received starts against lefties so far this year. This does not seem like a true platoon situation. Belt has really struggled and is striking out over 50% of the time so far. He is at risk to lose playing time if he does not pick up the pace. Santiago Espinal has seen his playing time increase over the last few days. The Blue Jays are trying all of their options at second base before calling up prospect Addison Barger. Barger has more stash value than holding any of Espinal, Biggio, or Merrifield.
Tampa Bay Rays
When you are undefeated, everything must be going well. The Rays love to utilize platoons, but a surprising number of starters are receiving everyday playing time. Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, Isaac Paredes, and Manuel Margot all appear to be platoon-proof at the moment. Josh Lowe, Luke Raley, and Brandon Lowe are all on the bench against lefties. Josh Lowe is an option to see increased playing time with Jose Siri being placed on the IL.
Yandy Diaz and Isaac Paredes are off to the most notable starts. We have known for a while that Diaz has excellent plate discipline and great contact skills, but the power is showing up early. He has two home runs already thanks to increased barrel and pull rates. His launch angle is still not much different from his previous seasons, and I am skeptical of the power outburst continuing. Paredes is the opposite. We have known about the power, but he has been inconsistent in tapping into it. Right now, his average is up above .300 thanks in large part to a high BABIP. He has always been a heavy pull hitter and the shift ban could have a significant impact on his performance. I am buying this breakout more than Diaz’s.
Also, one final note: Wander Franco is really good. He bats second against lefties and fourth against righties. Franco is off to an incredible start and all the metrics back it up. He is an early favorite to be a new contender for the AL MVP.
Baltimore Orioles
One thing that plagued Gunnar Henderson early on in his professional career was a high strikeout rate. His 2022 breakout season saw him dramatically reduce this rate, but the issue is back early on in 2023. His whiff rate is up above 40% and has fantasy managers worrying. After being somebody that was down on Henderson during the off-season, I am extremely optimistic. Strikeout rates and whiff rates can take a while to stabilize, and Henderson might just be pressing early in the season. I am encouraged by his barrel rate and increase in launch angle. I was worried a high groundball rate would stunt his offensive potential, but Henderson appears to have adjusted to get more launch on the ball. He will continue to bat fifth for Baltimore and I am buying him if anybody is looking to sell.
The rest of the lineup is consistent across the board. Adam Frazier is listed as a platoon player but has drawn a start against a lefty. He is off to a fast start, but without much power, he has a low fantasy ceiling. Any Kyle Stowers truthers out there need to move on. He is receiving almost no playing time early on as Austin Hays continues to play every day and bat seventh.
AL West
Houston Astros
While the Astros wait for their star players to return from injury, their lineup looks a little bit different than usual. To start the season, Jeremy Pena was given the opportunity to bat leadoff. He is off to a slow start at the plate batting under .200 while walking under five percent of the time. Dusty Baker prefers a traditional leadoff hitter and Pena is not it. He has moved down to sixth in the lineup the past few games which is a hit to his fantasy production. Chas McCormick was not in the lineup for the season’s first two games but has become a consistent lineup presence. Thanks to strong walk rates, he is batting leadoff which is a huge boost to his fantasy relevance. McCormick is a sneaky target, especially in OBP leagues.
Yainer Diaz was the designated hitter on Opening Day but has only been in two lineups since. He is hitless through his first ten plate appearances and is a strong candidate to be sent back to Triple-A. There is big-time potential in his bat, but his approach needs some maturity. Mauricio Dubon, Corey Julks, and David Hensley are sharing two lineup spots between the three of them batting between sixth and eighth. Hensley and Julks are intriguing bat-first profiles. Hensley is struggling so far and while Julks is off to a strong start, he has a .462 BABIP with a whiff percentage over 35%. Neither should be rostered outside of deep leagues at this time.
Also, Kyle Tucker will just always bat fifth in the Astros lineup. He is off to a strong start, but do not expect him to be moving up any time soon.
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels’ lineup has been set from top to bottom since the start of the season. The first five names are one of if not the best top halves of a lineup in baseball. Ward, Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, and Renfroe. After an altercation with a fan, Rendon was suspended for four games but has since returned to the lineup. He is not off to a great start, but his average exit velocity is over 90 mph and I am willing to be patient.
I had plenty of concerns with Brandon Drury entering this season and so far they have been justified. He has been batting sixth and rotating between first and second base, but the results have been uninspiring. Drury is yet to walk and the quality of contact metrics have been well below average. He should maintain his lineup spot even when Jared Walsh eventually returns, but his struggles are concerning.
Gio Urshela is playing well and should maintain his lineup spot throughout the season. When Walsh returns, I expect Luis Rengifo to move into a bench role. Urshela was targeted by Los Angeles and Rengifo has scuffled at the plate so far. Jake Lamb has been seeing additional playing time lately, but the results have been bad and he should remain off your fantasy radar.
Texas Rangers
One of the biggest question marks for the Rangers entering the season was who the left fielder will be. Some thought it would be Bubba Thompson, but early on it has been Josh Smith. Smith has been off to a hot start even after missing two games after being hit by a pitch in the face. Smith has strong on-base skills but lacks the power to be a big fantasy asset. He is on the strong side of a platoon with Ezequiel Duran. Duran has more fantasy potential with power and speed but is lacking the playing time to be useful in any format.
Josh Jung has been batting fifth and looks like the former top prospect we saw back in 2021. The power and smooth swing are both obvious although the whiff and chase rates remain a concern. Chasing over 30% of the time with a whiff rate over 40% is bound to lead to regression at the plate. I am holding strong in keeper and dynasty leagues but might be looking to sell his early season success in redraft leagues. Marcus Semien is off to a slow start this season after struggling during the first half of last year. He should continue to bat leadoff but if these struggles continue there is a chance the Rangers move him down in the lineup.
Seattle Mariners
I wrote this off-season that AJ Pollock could be in for a big bounce-back season. He was not in the first three lineups of the year and still appears to be on a short side of a platoon. The results have been solid when he is in the lineup, but inconsistent playing time drains any fantasy value from his profile. Jarred Kelenci is batting over .300 which looks great on paper. The issue is that his early success is supported by a .467 BABIP and Kelenic the same high strikeout rates as before. The strikeout rate is coming with improved chase and whiff rates and should help the strikeout rate start to come down. The early season results are encouraging for his 2023 outlook.
For now, Kolten Wong is on the strong side of a platoon with Sam Haggerty. Wong was batting second to start the year but has since recently moved down to as low as eighth. He is struggling at the plate and the drop in the lineup hurts his fantasy value. Dylan Moore is expected to return in the next week or two and could eat into Wong’s playing time if he does not start to show improvement at the plate.
There was some hype surrounding JP Crawford after he spent the off-season at Driveline. Crawford’s exit velocities are way up across the board despite having yet to barrel up a ball yet. His sweet spot percentage is improved, and he could be a sneaky pick-up before the breakout occurs. He is batting ninth for Seattle which is not a bad spot to be in when the lineup flips to Julio Rodriguez.
Oakland A’s
Throughout the off-season, I was fairly confident that Aledmys Diaz would receive every day at-bats in Oakland’s lineup. This has been the case so far as Diaz has been batting third and rotating between second base and shortstop. The playing time has been great, but the results have not been there. Unless he can turn it around at the plate he is not worth rostering.
Ramon Laureano could be a name to target in fantasy circles. He is swinging it well at the plate and figures to get a lineup boost around the trade deadline. He is batting fifth for Oakland and should start contributing some steals as the season moves along.
Three young players receiving consistent playing time are Ryan Noda, Shea Langeliers, and Esteury Ruiz. They were primarily batting 7,8,9 but Noda has been moving up in the lineup. He sits against lefties but posted a 159 wRC+ through Oakland’s first eight games. A 44% whiff rate is a red flag, but there is big-time power in his profile if you need home run help. Ruiz was drafted for his speed and knack for stolen bases. So far he only has only attempted one steal which is not enough for his lack of production in other categories. Move Ruiz to your bench until he starts to show more aggressiveness on the base paths. Shea Langeliers is quietly showing impressive improvements in his plate discipline. His chase rate and whiff percentage are both down from 2022. If he can maintain these gains he could be in for a solid sophomore season.
Late Note: Seth Brown is expected to be placed on the IL. This could open up additional playing time for Conner Capel.
AL Central
Kansas City Royals
MJ Melendez and Bobby Witt Jr. have been rotating between the top two spots in the lineup while Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez have been rotating between the third and fourth spots. Of the four, Perez is the only one showing any signs of life at the plate.
I am not worried at all about Pasquantino. He is still hitting the ball hard with elite plate discipline. He is running a .227 BABIP so far and should see his luck improve as the season moves along. Witt’s BABIP is even worse, but this is directly tied to an apparent attempt to sell out for power. He is hitting way more fly balls, resulting in a 4.2%-line drive rate. His exit velocity is up, chase rate down, whiff rate down, and barrel rate is steady. I am not panicking here either. Melendez, I am the most concerned about. Pitchers are throwing him way more off-speed pitches which he is struggling to make contact on. The quality of contact numbers are great but he needs to make more contact to be successful.
The rest of the lineup consists of a rotating cast of players. Kyle Isbel seems the most locked into playing time but has a 14 wRC+. Nicky Lopez, Hunter Dozier, and Edward Olivares are all seeing fairly consistent playing time. None have fantasy value currently, but Olivares could be relevant if he can continue to stay healthy and get more at-bats. He is the most talented outfielder on Kansas City’s roster and could be a good deep-league target on the chance he puts it together. There was some sleeper appeal to Michael Massey in the off-season, but he also looks lost at the plate. He has been batting fifth most games but is not worth rostering and could be replaced by Maikel Garcia if he continues to struggle.
Detroit Tigers
There is a lot to dissect with the Tigers’ lineup. To start, Austin Meadows is dealing with anxiety and is on the IL. Hopefully, he will return soon, but for now, Akil Baddoo is up and leading off against righties. I am not entirely sure how Baddoo is going from Triple-A to leadoff, but the Tigers seem ready to hand him that responsibility for the time being. I am not a big believer in Baddoo, but if you need help with your batting average he could be useful.
Kerry Carpenter has been the designated hitter batting in the middle of the lineup against righties. He is hitting for a high average early on with high walk and barrel rates. His launch angle is negative and the BABIP is too high to be sustainable. I do not think he is worth a roster spot right now.
Matt Vierling is my favorite add from the Tigers’ team. He is fluctuating between the top and bottom of the lineup, but is hitting for a solid average, has elite speed, and has excellent plate discipline. The metrics support a breakout for Vierling and now might be your last chance to buy in.
Chicago White Sox
The Eloy Jimenez hype train has dissipated thanks to another injury. He just cannot seem to stay on the field. In his absence, Gavin Sheets has seen his playing time increase. Sheets is in a platoon still and not worth adding.
Yoan Moncada has been batting in the middle of the White Sox’s lineup and is off to an excellent start. The concerning part is a high BABIP, low launch angle, high chase rate, and a high whiff rate. None of that adds up to support long-term success. I am selling Moncada and think he will come back to earth soon.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins always seem to be dealing with injuries. Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff both started the season on the IL. Polanco is playing in rehab games while Kirilloff is still playing extended Spring Training games. Polanco is closer to a return and should be back in the next week or two. Nick Gordon is most likely to lose his lineup spot when Polanco returns.
Max Kepler landed on the IL with knee tendonitis. This has shifted Gallo back to the outfield and allowed Donovan Solano to enter the lineup. Solano is swinging the bat well early in 2023 but does not figure to be a fantasy asset at age 35. Speaking of Gallo, he is now dealing with his own side injury. The Twins have been vocal that they are not worried about it, but this is still something to monitor.
The biggest early-season standout has been Trevor Larnach. While the early season results have been encouraging, there are reasons for concern with his profile. He is running a high whiff rate with mediocre quality of contact numbers. Pitchers are throwing him more and more breaking balls which he is continuing to struggle with. I am selling high on his early-season success.
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland had one of the bigger surprises on Opening Day. Oscar Gonzalez was out of the lineup in favor of Will Brennan. The Guardians have since faced more lefties than any team in baseball and Gonzalez has been in the lineup more than Brennan. Neither Gonzalez (-4 wRC+) nor Brennan (-10 wRC+) have looked ready to handle an everyday role in 2023. They will likely continue to platoon until one of them starts playing better.
Myles Straw has been batting ninth but has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2023 season. He has six steals already with a batting average of .370 and a walk percentage north of 20. Comparing last season to his 2023 start, there are no noticeable differences besides BABIP. Straw was probably unlucky last season and has been extremely lucky so far this year. Do not expect any power or the batting average to stay above .300, but if he continues to attempt steals at this rate, he will be a very useful fantasy asset.
Josh Bell’s start has been extremely concerning. He continues to bat in the middle of the lineup but has a launch angle of -5.6 degrees. So much of his success is tied directly to launch angle. He appears to be falling into old habits and could struggle to hit for average and power if this continues.