Every year so many jobs are won and lost in the NFL that sometimes its difficult to keep track of them all. So many talented wide receivers find themselves in brand new situations with new uniforms that come with high expectations, unfamiliar roles, and new challenges. For Dynasty owners, adjusting to these changes, and tracking the right observational and metric driven data points can be the difference between creating a dominant dynasty fantasy football team and continuing a perpetual rebuild.
Sample sizes are always small in a 16-game season but we can begin to make definitive judgments on dynasty wide receiver trade value with what we have with only two months left to go. Going into Week 11, lets take a look at three more wide receivers to see what we can realistically expect moving forward. Who should be a priority as trade deadlines approach? What is the true dynasty fantasy football trade value of these wide receivers?
All recommendations are based on a 12 tm PPR 1QB Standard TE league
Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Values
Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears
Age: 25, Roster Role: WR1, Team Role: Move
Contract Details: 3/$42M FA 2021 Out 2019
The Bears Offense
I have my reservations about Mitchell Trubisky. He’s not particularly accurate, struggles with quickly moving through his progressions, and has been prone to under throw his receivers on a number of deep passes this season. He’s also the number seven QB according to FantasyPros in terms of points scored so far this season and has more single season 300-yard 3-TD games than anyone else in Chicago Bears history (through 9 games!). What gives then? Well, to be frank, it’s his situation. With the combination of a top level play-caller, a top-half ranked pass blocking unit, and a bevy of weapons at every quadrant of the field, we’re seeing the best from Trubisky. Robinson is a beneficiary of his quarterback’s breakout.
How Robinson Fits
The issue with being a wide receiver on a team as rich in playmakers as the Chicago Bears is that it is easy to get lost in the shuffle and passed over for targets. Robinson has experienced a bit of that, averaging just over six targets per contest this season. He also hasn’t been particularly efficient with his opportunities as evidenced by his 9th ranked (NFL) contested catch rate (according to Player Profiler), the standout mark for the wideout. His 12.8 air yards per target ranks just 37th in the NFL (min 10 targets per airyards.com) and he’s topped 70 yards twice in six healthy games. He possesses some TD upside with four scores in those contests but TDs are not a predictive measure of success for WRs.
Treat Robinson as you would a wide receiver in a similar situation, Sammy Watkins. The scheme is one to chase but many unpredictable boom and bust performances will be the norm in such crowded offenses. He’s an upside WR3 in reality but his name cache elevates him above his true late first round price. Robinson is a HOLD after Week 11 of this NFL season. I wouldn’t consider him a buy high candidate but he is worth acquiring from a frustrated dynasty owner willing to sell at value.
Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys
Age: 24, Roster Role: WR2, Team Role: Move
Contract Details: 4/$23M FA 2020 Out 2019 *5th yr
A Common Misconception
The Oakland Raiders are a sinking ship that Amari was glad to abandon. Now, safely away from the Titanic, Amari’s role seems to have stabilized. The narrative surrounding Cooper earlier this year painted him as a constant disappointment. Big games were followed by goose eggs with little warning as to what production he would yield week to week. The “fact” that he was playing poorly was a common misconception however.
Who is Amari Cooper?
In 2017, Cooper was actually playing poorly. He received a top-30 target share but ranked only 46th in fantasy points per target. His drop rate of 10.4% was the fifth highest mark in the league. But he has turned it around since. So far this season, for all of Oakland’s ills, Cooper actually had some surprisingly efficient production. He’s cut his drop rate by six percent, from 10% down to 4% and boasts a top-15 true catch percentage (a measure of catch rate on “catchable targets”). His 5.14 cushion yards per play ranks second league wide and his 1.82 yards of separation per target is a top 15 mark in the league. He’s been playing well. The only issue was consistent targets and he’s seeing those in Dallas.
Now paired with a QB in Dak Prescott who struggles with anticipation passes, Cooper fits in perfectly as a quick twitch route runner that can present open windows to Dak. We’ve seen as much, as he’s been targeted eight and 10 times respectively, a stark departure from receiving less than six targets in four of six games in Oakland. Cooper is still just 24 and is close to losing his underrated status in a Cowboy uniform. His dynasty wide receiver trade value could be rebounding shortly. He is a BUY for me and I would be willing to pay two late firsts for his services in Week 11, before another plus performance increases his dynasty fantasy football trade value.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Age: 24, Roster Role: WR3, Team Role: Outside
Contract Details: 4/$3.3M FA 2021 Out Yearly
Lost in the shuffle?
With O.J. Howard, Cameron Brate, DeSean Jackson, and Mike Evans battling Chris Godwin for targets on a game by game basis, it was always going to be tough. Surprisingly, Godwin has met expectations and exceeded them in many ways when it comes to the level of opportunity he has been given in Tampa Bay’s offense. With no run game to speak of, Buccaneer quarterbacks have combined for 374 pass attempts (tied 2nd NFL). Godwin has commanded six targets per game, 40th league-wide for a 14.5% target share. Another positive note is that Godwin has also received a 25.9% end zone target share (32nd NFL) and has done this playing only 65.1% of the snaps in Tampa.
The exciting thing about Godwin and this level of efficiency on limited looks is the potential for targets to be cleared up for him come 2019. In dynasty fantasy football leagues, these considerations must always be taken into account. Brate’s new contract is one with only a one year commitment realistically as the dead cap numbers on the deal disappear after this season. Fellow receiver Jackson can also be released for free in 2019, making it very likely Godwin steps into a much larger role next year. As strong as they come at the catch point, Godwin has already proved with his 60% contested catch rate (9th NFL) that he can continue to be an effective weapon in the end zone. His eye popping speed and agility metrics reveal his true upside.
Feel comfortable paying up to a mid first round pick for Godwin now before his price skyrockets next season. He would be the strongest of dynasty wide receiver BUY candidates for me in Week 11 and I would be willing to spend up to acquire him from an owner that is slow on seeing what the future holds for Godwin.
Be sure to check out my WR ranks by clicking HERE
My RB ranks can be found by clicking HERE
Agree? Think I’m nuts? Have a specific player you’d like me to profile on next weeks edition? Let me know on twitter @ FF_Wonderkid. Thanks for reading.
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