Things change, constantly. And, as in life, change is the rule in dynasty fantasy football. Why? Because circumstances in the NFL are unbelievably dynamic. A new coach here, an injury there, and all of a sudden your star player is irrelevant and a brand new name has taken his place. Sometimes the incidents that incite these changing circumstances aren’t so pronounced. To the less discerning eye, Jarvis Landry’s situation seems to have improved. But a new sheriff in town in Odell Beckham Jr. could prove disastrous for the future prospects of this volume driven receiver. Let’s take a look at what likely awaits dynasty managers that roster “juice”.
“Change is the law of life and those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.” – John F. Kennedy
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Jarvis Landry: Target Driven Excellence
To date, Jarvis Landry has been a PPR player’s dream. Since entering the league in 2014, Landry has seen no fewer than 110 targets a season. For reference, last season 110 targets was the 27th most in the NFL. Evan as a rookie Landry has benefitted from a massive target share and hasn’t done much to prove valuable otherwise. Though his catch rate and YAC have been impressive, his sub-double-digit aDot in every year except this most recent one means that many of those catches didn’t prove very useful past the PPR point. At just 5.2 TDs per year, greatly boosted by his 9 TDs 2017, Landry didn’t convert this massive volume into scoring opportunities.
Last season, Landry had the added benefit of being cast in a new role for his team. As the Browns’ number one target often deployed on the outside, his aDot drastically rose to 11.7, near double his career average. Unfortunately with OBJ in tow, this is unlikely to continue. For the first time in his career he also won’t have the benefit of being his team’s number one target hog. Couple that likely decrease with the continued presence of David Njoku and Kareem Hunt/Duke Johnson as further threats to his market share and serious concerns about Landry’s workload are apparent.
Not all is well when it comes to Landry’s contract either. As is shown below:
— Etan Mozia (@ThisIsTheRunn) April 10, 2019
Jarvis Landy’s deal effectively only ties him to Cleveland through the 2019 season. After this year, Landy will likely take a pay cut or will be cut from the team as they stand to save $10M + every year after 2019. While his contract is not an albatross deal for a team’s WR1, having Odell has got to change the Browns’ financial plans a bit. It should be noted that at the time of this writing the Browns are currently spending the most money on the WR position group in the NFL by a significant four million dollar margin. This will not be a situation that continues. It is simply not sustainable for a franchise that will need to pay Miles Garrett, and David Njoku in the next couple of seasons. And that goes without mentioning all of the other young assets on the team still tied to them for the next three to four years.
This isn’t to say that Jarvis Landry isn’t a good player or even that he doesn’t fit the Browns’ current roster. He absolutely does, more so now than ever with a return to the slot role likely on the horizon. But paying between $14.5M and $16.6M for a receiver who’s RACR has dropped every year for the last three seasons doesn’t seem like the move a good GM would be proud of.
— Etan Mozia (@ThisIsTheRunn) April 10, 2019
Couple that with the fact that Landry’s QBR, when targeted last season was just 88th leaguewide despite playing with a QB already playing at a top-10 level and the chips, seem to stack against him.
Here today as a stud, gone tomorrow in terms of relevance. Such is the life of an NFL player and so it is for dynasty managers. Take this information and be your own judge but don’t make the mistake of looking at today and missing tomorrow with Jarvis Landry on your roster.
Thanks for reading.
Etan Mozia has been involved with sports as a whole for over two decades and has written about athletics in some capacity since 2005. Focused primarily on the NFL and EPL, Etan has seen his work featured on sites like FantasyPros, Advanced Sports Logic, and FFD260 among others. Currently, his work is housed on FantraxHQ and FantasyPros. An avid lover of dynasty leagues specifically, you can also listen to him on his podcast, The Dynasty Diagnostic (@DynoDiagnostic), as he breaks down rosters and provides pertinent and practical advice for dynasty squads looking to give their team an edge. Follow him on twitter @EtanMozia.
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