Daily Preview and NBA DFS Picks for 4/2/2021
April Fools Day is in the books. Hopefully there was no joking about the money we helped you win! Tonight we’ve got a hefty 10-game slate on deck. This will provide us a lot of permutations and combinations for our NBA DFS targets. Let’s get into it!
Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
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NBA DFS Targets and Preview for April 2
Warriors vs. Raptors
Kyle Lowry is going to be out for at least the next week. That drastically changes the way the Raptors play defensively. I was a proponent of the Raptors making sure that FVV got paid because I believed he could replace Kyle Lowry’s production at a 1:1 ratio. That’s only been true offensively. The Raptors are currently in the bottom third of the league in defensive rating. They’re going to face a GSW squad that has Steph Curry, coupled with the 8th rated defense. I expect the Warriors to win this one.
DFS Targets: GSW targets: Curry, Wiggins, Oubre, Green, and Wiseman. TOR targets: FVV, OG, Trent Jr., and Siakam.
Rockets vs. Celtics
The Rockets have been playing much better as of late, but they’re still losing, and they’re still the tanking Rockets. It can’t be fun for Mr. Silas that his first head coaching job is with a tanking organization. I hope they turn things around within the next few seasons, because he may not be able to get another gig. Celtics win. I’m not expecting a blowout, however, as the Celtics are still finding their footing as a squad with a weak frontcourt.
DFS Targets: HOU targets: Wood, Kevin Porter Jr., Tate, and Kelly Olynyk. BOS targets: Walker, Smart, Brown, Tatum, and Wagner.
Mavericks vs. Knicks
The Mavs are 9th in net rating, while the Knicks are 13th. This should be a closely contested game. I lean towards the Knicks to win this one, and that’s based on the fact their defense is what makes them a playoff team this year. I’m not saying the third-ranked defense in the league can stop Luka, but I do believe it can make someone other than Luka beat them. Dallas doesn’t really have that next person, as Kristaps provides relatively empty stats right now.
DFS Targets: DAL targets: Luka, Porzingis, and Josh Richardson (inconsistent, but can break a slate when he’s on). NYK targets: Payton, Barrett, and Randle.
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies
The 2nd to last net rated team in the league is facing a top 10 defense. Advantage Grizzlies. Don’t overthink it!
DFS Targets: MIN targets: KAT and Anthony Edwards. MEM targets: Morant, Bane, Brooks, Anderson, and Jonas.
Hornets vs. Pacers
One of these teams is over .500 and one is under .500. Some of their season-long data is skewed for the Hornets because they no longer have LaMelo Ball, but they replaced Ball in the starting lineup with Devonte Graham, who had a breakout season last year and should have a starting spot somewhere in this league. The Hornets haven’t missed a beat since Ball broke his wrist. However, with the Pacers’ higher net rating and defensive rating, I think they’ll be able to secure the win.
DFS Targets: CHA targets: Rozier, Hayward, and Graham. IND targets: Brogdon, Sabonis, Turner, and McConnell for value.
Hawks vs. Pelicans
The Hawks and Pelicans are essentially the same team. They are both above average in net rating, and they are both probably underachieving, as both teams are under .500 (despite having at least two stars). I think the reason they are underachieving is because neither team plays good team defense. That’ll be great for our DFS targets but won’t help either team win.
DFS Targets: ATL targets: Young, Collins, and Capela. NOP targets: Ingram, Zion, Hart, Lewis Jr., and Adams.
Bulls vs. Jazz
I like how the new Bulls squad looks on paper, but without LaVine tonight, they have no chance. They’re not going to find his replacement value in scoring against the 4th ranked defense in the league. And they won’t be able to keep up with the 3rd ranked offense in the league. I’m expecting a blowout here.
DFS Targets: I’d avoid this game, but stick with the stars if you disagree.
Lakers vs. Kings
No Anthony Davis. LeBron James is also hurt. Andre Drummond got hurt in his Laker debut. It’s hard to call a reigning champion cursed, but the evidence is there. Kings win against a very depleted LA squad.
DFS Targets: SAC targets: Holmes, Fox, and Haliburton. LAL targets: Dennis the Menace, Kuzma, and Harrell.
Thunder vs. Suns
Suns. Sometimes the picks are easy.
DFS Targets: I’d avoid targets here. We might only see starters play three quarters.
Bucks vs. Trail Blazers
This should be a fun one. The Bucks are currently hitting on all cylinders. So are the Blazers. They basically have the same Win/Loss records, too. At the end of the day, CJ coming back to the lineup has done wonders for the Portland offense, as there is finally another person who can give you 30+ points on a decent night. This opens up better shots for Dame, as it prevents him from being doubled, and spreads the floor better. That said, tonight the Blazers have to deal with a top 10 defense. This game will come down to who can get more stops, and the Bucks are better equipped to do that. I like Giannis and the boys here.
DFS Targets: MIL targets: Giannis, Holiday, Middleton, and Lopez. POR targets: Dame, CJ, Powell, and Nurkic if he is able to have his minutes restriction lifted. If not, I’d fade him.
Don’t forget to check back later in the day as Bradlee will be updating his NBA DFS preview with all the info you need to turn tonight’s slate into a resounding success!
If you are reading this on Fantrax.com make sure to head on over to FantraxHQ to check out Brad’s afternoon updates.
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