Opening day, shmopening day! Baseball is a nice, but you and me? We’re here for basketball. We’ve got a nice seven-game NBA DFS slate ahead of us, so let’s dive right in!
Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
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NBA DFS Targets and Preview for Apr. 1
76ers vs. Cavaliers
I’d love to expect a blowout in this one, but the recent form part of my formula is preventing me from doing that. The 76ers are 6th in the league in net rating, 2nd in defense, and 14th in offense over the course of the season. All of which are better than the components of the Cavs’ team that have led to their dead last net rating. One shouldn’t overthink this one and roll with Philly, but you can absolutely target some Cavs players.
DFS Targets: PHI targets: Simmons, Harris, Howard, Curry or Green (I wouldn’t want exposure to both in one lineup). CLE targets: Garland, Sexton, Nance, and Hartenstein (great value as he’ll probably start with Allen out).
Wizards vs. Pistons
Excuse the homer-ism, but Russ looks like he’s completely back to form! His dunk over Bismack Biyombo the other night had me jump out of my seat. I think the Wizards could handle the Pistons with Russ alone, but it looks like they’ll have Bradley Beal back too. The tanking Pistons have the firepower to compete. Go with the Wiz here.
DFS Targets: WAS targets: Beal, Westbrook, and Rui. DET targets: Grant, Lee, Plumlee, and Bey.
Hornets vs. Nets
The Hornets are going to make the playoffs. I don’t know that I would’ve bet money on that this year, but they are 7 games up in the loss column from the 11th seed. LaMelo might even come back before the end of the season. This is no pushover team. Kyrie and Harden are likely going to be too much for them though, considering their 18th ranked defense. I’m expecting a wire-to-wire, but close win for the Nets.
DFS Targets: CHA targets: Rozier, Graham, and Hayward. BKN targets: Kyrie, Harden, Brown, Harris, and Claxton could be an interesting value play against a Hornets frontcourt that can give up numbers.
Warriors vs. Heat
Steph is back and he looks like he’s not 100%. That said, he dropped 30 at whatever percent of health he’s feeling. The Warriors also declined to accept a trade that would’ve sent Kelly Oubre Jr. to the Nets for Spencer Dinwiddie. This says to me that the Warriors like the core they’ll have when Klay gets back next year. All of this, however, has nothing to do with the game tonight. I expect a relatively low scoring affair as both teams are top 10 in defense. Warriors have a better offense, so I give them the edge.
DFS Targets: GSW targets: Curry, Oubre, Wiggins, and Green (Wiseman won’t fair well against Bam). MIA targets: Butler, Bam, Herro, and Nunn.
Magic vs. Pelicans
I hope that you’re not in a position where this is the only game you’re able to watch on your television. Use the internet. Steal someone’s league pass credentials. I don’t care. Whatever you’ve done in your life, you don’t deserve to watch this game. Pels win.
DFS Targets: ORL targets: Ross. NOP targets: Ball, Ingram, and Williamson.
Hawks vs. Spurs
The Hawks are 9th in the league in net rating, while the Spurs are 21st. I’ve watched basketball every night this year, and I have no idea how that happened. San Antonio has a top 10 defense, while the Hawks have a top 10 offense. This is a classic matchup that’s always hard to judge. Which is better? A great offense or a great defense? I tend to lean defense though. Spurs should take this one here.
DFS Targets: ATL targets: Young and Capela. SAS targets: Murray, DeRozan, Johnson, and Patty Mills.
Nuggets vs. Clippers
Both teams are top 5 in net rating. This is going to be an excellent clash of two great teams in the Western Conference. There’s a chance one of these teams will end up representing the West in the Finals. At the end of the day, these teams are both too talented and evenly matched for me to use stats to call a winner. I think recent form will matter more than anything, and the Clippers have won 6 straight, and they’re going to add Paul George to the mix. I’ll roll with LAC.
DFS Targets: DEN targets: Jokic, Murray, and MPJ. LAC targets: George and Leonard.
Don’t forget to check back later in the day as Bradlee will be updating his NBA DFS preview with all the info you need to turn tonight’s slate into a resounding success!
If you are reading this on Fantrax.com make sure to head on over to FantraxHQ to check out Brad’s afternoon updates.
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