Daily Preview and NBA DFS Picks for 2/9/2021
Friends, we’ve got a beautiful seven-game slate tonight. The beauty of NBA DFS is that unlike football, you don’t have to wait another week to take a crack at the fortune you rightfully deserve! At the time I’m writing this, the results of Monday night’s slate is still in progress, but I’ll go ahead and assume I was right about everything…this trend will continue tonight, my friends!!!
Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
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NBA DFS Targets and Preview for Feb. 9
Nets (-6.5) vs. Pistons; Total 229.5
I can confidently say that Kevin Durant loves his teammates and staff more than any other player in the league. He just has to be around them. That’s fine with me. I love seeing KD happy. But the NBA Covid protocols are making him sit out another couple of games, provided he continues to test negative. Tough break for the Nets trying to get continuity, but they won’t need KD to beat the Pistons.
DFS Targets: The Nets have the 7th ranked net rating in the league vs. the Pistons’ 25th ranked net rating. Expect a blowout tonight. Look for your DFS targets elsewhere.
Knicks vs. Heat (-5.5); Total 207.5
Let me just say…I absolutely love the new baseball-esque NBA schedule where we get two-game series, back-to-back. It affords me to essentially copy and paste my takes from the prior matchup. Which I will do now: I didn’t think I’d ever say this in my lifetime, but the Knicks are a better team than the Heat. I can’t believe it either, and maybe it won’t be true in a few weeks. But today it’s true. Knicks are 21st to the Heat’s 23rd ranking in net ranking. Thibs has them 7th in defense vs. the Heat’s 15th defensive ranking. They are also 24th and 25th in offensive ranking. I think the Heat’s edge in pace won’t be enough for them to overcome their offensive struggles. I like the Knicks in this one.
DFS Targets: The only person I’d like in the Heat’s offense is Bam, to be honest. He’s got a tough matchup with Mitchell Robinson, but he’s athletic enough to find ways to get a mismatch. I like Jimmy as well, but he’s primarily a facilitator and their offense isn’t clicking right now, so I don’t want to bet on him to get buckets (like he did in last year’s playoffs). The Knicks in your player pool should be Elfrid Payton, R.J. Barrett, Julius Randle, and Quickley, as long as he’s under $6,000 on either site. He’s getting close to starter’s minutes now.
Rockets vs. Pelicans (-6); Total 226
The Rockets are better than the Pelicans…one of these teams has a positive net rating, while the other has a negative one. The reason I don’t believe it will be a blowout is that I don’t think the Rockets have the continuity to put a beatdown on a team that isn’t great but does have talent. Let’s dive deeper.
DFS Targets: The Rockets are 4th in pace, while the Pelicans are 19th in pace. Let’s target the Rockets guards in Wall, Oladipo, Jae’Sean Tate, and Eric Gordon. For the Pelicans, a slower pace means we’ll target the bigs. I like Zion and Steven Adams. Brandon Ingram is a great player, but I don’t love his matchup for this one. For the value guys, take a look at Hernangomez or Jaxson Hayes, as I wouldn’t be shocked if Boogie Cousins got Steven Adams in foul trouble.
Celtics vs. Jazz (-5.5); Total 221
The Jazz are the 2nd best team in the league, per the league’s net ratings (an estimated point differential, per 100 possessions, if you’re new to my articles). The Celtics are 10th, and they’re looking like they’re going to have Jaylen Brown back. This could be an interesting matchup, albeit one of the lower totals on the slate.
DFS Targets: The Celtics and Jazz are both in the lowest tercile of pace in the league. That’s why I believe this will be one of the lowest totals on the slate. We’re going to target the bigs. I like Tristan Thompson, Grant Williams, and Daniel Theis for the Celtics, and Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors for the Jazz. I’m not going to lie. Fading some of the big names in this matchup makes me nervous, but you’ve got to trust the process, not the result. That’s how you win in DFS over time.
Warriors vs. Spurs (-1); Total 230
We’re dealing with two middling teams in this matchup. 14th and 16th, respectively, in the league’s net rating standings. Both teams are top ten in pace, which should make this incredibly fun to watch. The Warriors are 2nd in pace, however, so I’ll give them the edge.
DFS Targets: I like Steph, Wiggins, and Oubre for GSW. The Spurs should have Keldon Johnson, Murray, DeRozan, and Lonnie Walker racking up the fantasy points for their squad. I’m fading LMA in this matchup, as the pace should preclude them from getting very involved. I think it’s worth putting Draymond Green in your player pool, because even though he’s a big, his role in the offense is akin to a point guard. He runs the show and gets everyone set where they need to be. His defensive attributes also give him a safe floor.
Magic vs. Blazers (-6.5); Total 220.5
You don’t have to watch this game. You’re better than that. I don’t care if you live in Orlando or Portland. You deserve better. Blazers by a zillion.
DFS Targets: I don’t mess around with potential blowout games. Putting Dame in your player pool is probably a safe bet, due to his usage, but why worry. Life is short.
76ers (-5) vs. Kings; Total 230.5
The Kings are a team I keep saying will get blown out, but they continue to be in every game late. I’m going to learn from my mistakes here. I think the 76ers win, as their 5th best net rating would suggest, but we’re going to target some of the players in this game because Luke Walton and ‘dem boys continue to stick around. So…
DFS Targets: We like the 76ers starting five. Their 8th in pace and have a very balanced attack. You can count on Embiid and Simmons to put in work. Danny Green and Seth Curry are always good money to hit a chunk of threes to hit their salary value (especially on DraftKings with the 3-point bonus). Tobias Harris also provides plenty of boards and assists to give him a safe floor if he’s not scoring tonight. With the Kings’ 14th ranked pace, let’s just stick with Fox, Halliburton, and Holmes. Hield and Barnes are interesting, but they are inconsistent. Play them at your own risk.
Don’t forget to check back later in the day as Bradlee will be updating his NBA DFS preview with all the info you need to turn tonight’s slate into a resounding success!
If you are reading this on Fantrax.com make sure to head on over to FantraxHQ to check out Brad’s afternoon updates.
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