Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few games that can lead to consistent predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
It’s the day of the BIG GAME! Wizards/Hornets!…
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
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NBA DFS Targets and Preview for Feb. 7
Wizards (-1.5) vs. Hornets; Total 237.5
You already know who I think will win this game. My Wiz. The stats don’t support this however. Both teams have a pretty bad net rating, but the Hornets are 19th in the league, vs. the Wizards’ 27th league rating. The saving grace for my guys is that they are leading the league in pace, with 103.9 possessions per 48 minutes. I wouldn’t put money on the Wiz, but don’t be surprised if they pull this out.
DFS Targets: On the Wiz, their pace will have us targeting guards. We like Russ, Brad Beal, Ish Smith, and Davis Bertans might finally have his legs under him. I’d be underweight on Bertans, but I think he’s worth putting in your player pool. I feel the same about Rui, now that he’ll be getting 30 minutes per game. On the Hornets, I like the entire starting 5 + Miles Bridges. The Wiz can’t guard anybody and the game has the highest total on the slate. You’ll want the exposure.
Jazz (-5) vs. Pacers; Total 226.5
Quiet as kept, the Jazz have the second best net rating in the league. I can disrespect what they’ve done against a few teams, but not the Pacers (12th best net rating in the league). The Jazz have the 4th best offensive rating and the 4th best defensive rating, so as much as I like Domantas and Brogdon, I don’t think they can carry the Pacers to a win against a complete team like the Jazz.
DFS Targets: I probably won’t have anybody but Domantas Sabonis in my player pool for the Pacers. I’d normally fade somebody against Rudy Gobert, but I think Domantas will be fine, especially with his usage rate. For the Jazz, I like Clarkson (without Conley) and Rudy Gobert. Joe Ingles intrigues me with a soft matchup against Jeremy Lamb. He’s worthy of a tiny bit of exposure.
Heat (-6) vs. Knicks; Total 208.5
I didn’t think I’d ever say this in my lifetime, but the Knicks are a better team than the Heat. I can’t believe it either, and maybe it won’t be true in a few weeks. But today it’s true. Knicks are 20th to the Heat’s 23rd ranking in net ranking. Thibs has them 7th in defense vs. the Heat’s 15th defensive ranking. They are also 24th and 25th in offensive ranking. I think the Heat’s edge in pace won’t be enough for them to overcome their offensive struggles. I like the Knicks in this one.
DFS Targets: The only person I’d like in the Heat’s offense is Bam, to be honest. He’s got a tough matchup with Mitchell Robinson, but he’s athletic enough to find ways to get a mismatch. I like Jimmy as well, but he’s primarily a facilitator and their offense isn’t clicking right now, so I don’t want to bet on him to get buckets (like he did in last year’s playoffs). The Knicks in your player pool should be Elfrid Payton, R.J. Barrett, Julius Randle, and Quickley, as long as he’s under $6,000 on either site. He’s getting close to starter’s minutes now.
Celtics vs. Suns (-3); Total 215.5
If Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart were playing, I’d have a full write-up. Jayson Tatum can’t take on Chris Paul, DeAndre Ayton, and Devin Booker, by himself. I’m expecting a blowout.
DFS Targets: Let’s fade this one, friends.
Kings vs. Clippers (-8.5); Total 228.5
Clippers are 4th in Net rating. The Kings are 25th. Expect a blowout. Carry on.
DFS Targets: Start prepping for NBA DFS on Monday.
If you play season-long fantasy basketball in addition to NBA DFS, you’ll want to check out Mike Omelan’s latest Waiver Wire column for a few ideas on how to add to your squad.
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