Honestly, I don’t even remember what I said yesterday. I’ll just assume I was right about everything, and move on. You should too. It’s 2/21/21 for goodness sakes! How can we lose? Onward to today’s NBA DFS slate!
Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
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NBA DFS Targets and Preview for Feb. 21
Thunder (-2.5) vs. Cavaliers; Total 219.5
We’ve got the 28th ranked team in the league vs. the 30th ranked team (in terms of net rating). Is this a game you want to watch? No. Does that mean there won’t be excellent DFS targets? Not at all. The Cavs have the 7th worst defense in the league, so I think we can look for the Thunder to really get going.
DFS Targets: OKC targets: Shai, Dort, Bazley, Horford, and Roby are all strong plays against this defense. I’ve got love for Hammy too. CLE targets: Sexland, of course (Sexton and Garland), and Allen. But I’ll leave it at them, considering the Thunder have a top ten defense.
Pistons vs. Magic (-2.5); Total 210.5
Pretty much a copy paste from the matchup above. We’re talking about the 24th ranked team vs. the 27th ranked team, in terms of net rating. The Pistons are 21st in defense and the Magic are 17th. They are 23rd and 27th, respectively, in offense. I think with a matchup like this, we could have very stagnant offense, where only the stars eat. That’s fine for DFS purposes. We know who we should target.
DFS Targets: DET targets: Jerami Grant. ORL targets: Nikola Vucevic…and Evan Fournier (he’s not a star, but he can hoop, and will get lots of usage in their lineup).
76ers (-3) vs. Raptors; Total 222.5
Finally, a real game! The Sixers are coming off an incredible performance from Joel Embiid, who has firmly planted himself in the MVP race. Further, they’ve got the 8th best net rating in the league, showing that they are a well rounded team. The Raptors are hitting their stride after a slow start and their 9th in the league in net rating. I think the pace of the game will determine the winner, and the Sixers play faster than the Raptors, so I’m expecting them to get the W.
DFS Targets: We’re dealing with two top ten defenses in this one, so I’d focus on the stars that get consistent usage. PHI targets: Harris and Embiid. TOR targets: FVV, Siakam, and Chris Boucher.
Timberwolves vs. Knicks (-3); Total 216.5
I smell a blowout. The Knicks have the 3rd best defense in the league. The Wolves have the 28th ranked offense. The Knicks don’t have a great offense, but the Wolves defense is also poor at 22nd ranked in the league. I think the Knicks handle this one easily.
DFS Targets: I’ll pass on this one. Maybe Randle and Towns, if you must.
Nuggets (-2.5) vs. Hawks; Total 232.5
I’ve spent a good chunk of these articles writing about how Nikola Jokic is incredible. I think it was making Jamal Murray jealous. The man dropped 50 points on 80%+ shooting. Wilt Chamberlain type numbers. Just absurd. Denver will take their two stars and 5th ranked net rating against the Hawks’ middling team. I like Denver to win this one big.
DFS Targets: Denver targets: Joker, MPJ, and Murray (but I don’t love to take players after career nights. Their salary gets too pricey). Hawks targets: Young, Collins, and Capela.
Nets vs. Clippers (-6.5); Total 235.5
We’ve got another great one here. Nets are the 7th ranked team, while the Clippers are the 2nd ranked team in the league. They are also 1st and 2nd in offense. It’s the defense that’s going to determine the winner in this one, I think. Clippers are 16th and the Nets are 25th. I’ll roll with the L.A., but I’m not super confident. This should be a high-scoring affair.
DFS Targets: Nets targets: Kyrie Irving, James Harden, Bruce Brown, and Joe Harris. Clippers targets: Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Batum. Don’t be afraid to check for bench players for value, as well. Especially in a potentially high-scoring game like this. I like T.L.C., Shamet, Lou Williams, and Marcus Morris.
Kings vs. Bucks (-10); Total 238.5
Bucks. Blowout. Onward.
DFS Targets: I wouldn’t. If the Kings manage to keep this one close, take a look at Giannis, Middleton, Fox, and Bagley.
Don’t forget to check back later in the day as Bradlee will be updating his NBA DFS preview with all the info you need to turn tonight’s slate into a resounding success!
If you are reading this on Fantrax.com make sure to head on over to FantraxHQ to check out Brad’s afternoon updates.
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