Daily Preview and NBA DFS Picks for 2/18/2021
You thought we were just going to blow off a three-game NBA DFS slate? Is that what you thought? That, my friends, is not how Fantrax does business. Let’s take down this slate!
Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
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NBA DFS Targets and Preview for Feb. 18
Raptors vs. Bucks (-6.5); Total 233.5
We just watched this game a couple of nights ago. My analysis was as follows: The Raptors have nothing for the Bucks. Nothing. The Raptors are searching. They just lost to the T-Wolves. The worst team in the league. The game before that they lost to the searching Celtics. That’s fine. It’s just a rough spell. I think they’ll make the playoffs eventually. But the Bucks are hitting on all cylinders.
The problem with that take is I was only taking into account the Bucks’ season-long data, not their recent form. They’ve now lost four straight (including vs. TOR. I said they’d win). Only fools take accountability, though. I’m no fool. The Raptors are likely to be without Kyle Lowry, and that matters. I’m sticking with the Bucks.
DFS Targets: I feel like this is potential blowout territory in favor of the Bucks, but on a three-game slate, we can’t take any targets for granted. On the Bucks: Forbes is value. Middleton and Giannis are good money, and I like Pat Connaughton and Bobby Portis as dart throws. Raptors targets: The entire starting five, plus Boucher and Bembry.
Nets vs. Lakers (-2.5); Total 236.5
I don’t care that Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant are likely to miss this game. We just watched James Harden single-handedly lead the Nets to a comeback win over the Suns. We’re getting a GREAT game. The Lakers are 4th in net rating in the league, and the Nets are 6th. To me, the deciding factor is that the Lakers’ depth has their defense ranked 1st in the league. I’m not saying they’re going to hold the Nets to 100, but the Nets are 26th in defense, so they need to get to around 120 to win games. I don’t see that happening.
Heat (-1.5) vs. Kings; Total 223.5
Somebody has to win this game right? I don’t think there are any ties in the NBA. The Heat are 23rd in the league’s net rating rankings and the Kings are 25th. Both terrible. The Heat play a little defense, which is their saving grace, while the Kings are 30th. The Heat can’t score this year, while the Kings are 11th in offense. To be honest, your guess is as good as mine with the winner of this game. I’d just go with Vegas, if you must.
DFS Targets: Heat targets: Nunn, Butler, Olynk, Herro, and Bam. Kings targets: Fox, Holmes, Halliburton. These are the only names you can count on to get you consistent minutes and production. The other guys are capable, but inconsistent.
Don’t forget to check back later in the day as Bradlee will be updating his NBA DFS preview with all the info you need to turn tonight’s slate into a resounding success!
If you are reading this on Fantrax.com make sure to head on over to FantraxHQ to check out Brad’s afternoon updates.
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