I’m going to do everyone a favor today. Instead of writing a whole article about Act II: Russ Westbrook vs. John Wall, I’m only going to spend a paragraph on it, so we can get to the rest of the slate. My first goal of writing these articles is to help good folks like you make some profit with NBA DFS. My second goal: Get y’all to care about the Wizards. I’ll focus on the main goal today…
Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
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NBA DFS Targets and Preview for Feb. 15
Rockets (-1.5) vs. Wizards; Total 230.5
John Wall has been in the news saying that he watches the Wizards all the time. We certainly have that in common! I don’t think it’s unfair to say that John Wall feels slighted by the fact the Wiz traded him for Westbrook. I love that for him. He plays great when he’s angry. Russ is Russ. He’s averaging damn near a triple-double, but the Wiz aren’t hitting enough shots to win games, despite Brad Beal leading the league in scoring. Let’s look at the big disparity between the teams. The Rockets are 4th in defense, the Wiz are 29th. That’ll do it. Wiz can score, but can they against a top-five defense? Probably not. I’m taking the Rockets.
DFS Targets: I’m avoiding Wizards’ stars as I’m not taking high salary players against a top-four defense. On the Rockets I like Wall, Gordon, Tate, and Cousins. House Jr., Brown, and McLemore all make for great value plays against one of the worst defenses in the league.
Bulls vs. Pacers (-5.5); Total 225
The Pacers are 10th in net rating, while the Bulls are 20th. They are 13th and 22nd in defensive rating. They are 14th and 17th in offensive rating. Zach LaVine isn’t enough to beat the Pacers, who are more of an all-around, complete team. Pacers win.
DFS Targets: On the Bulls, I’d target Zach Lavine, Coby White, and Patrick Williams isn’t getting the highest usage, but his minutes are high enough and his salary is low enough to interest me. On the Pacers we like Sabonis, Brogdon, Holiday, McDermott, and Turner. Lamb and McConnell should also be in the mix.
Hawks (-2) vs. Knicks; Total 218
The Hawks and Knicks are both middling in terms of net rating, but I really believe the Knicks’ 3rd ranked defense will be the difference-maker in the game. Not to mention John Collins is on the trade block, which I imagine won’t help team cohesion.
DFS Targets: Much like the situation with the Wizards, I don’t have much desire to target a player against a top defense. I’ll avoid all the Hawks in this one. On the Knicks, I’d like to target the entire starting five, except Nerlens Noel (he has a bad individual matchup). The pace is also likely to be too slow to target the backup guards.
76ers vs. Jazz (-7.5); Total 225.5
Now THIS is a game. The Jazz have the #1 net rating in the league, while the 76ers have the 7th ranked net rating. Both teams have top-five defenses and the Jazz are 2nd best. The interesting part of the matchup is that the 76ers are 9th in pace and the Jazz are 23rd. This is going to be a better game to watch than it will be for NBA DFS targets. I think the Jazz win, but it won’t be pretty.
DFS Targets: Great defenses, make for a low scoring game. I’ll stick with the stars in this one. Embiid, Simmons, and Mitchell. They’ll be in my player pool for safety, but if I select them, I assure you, I’ll be underweight those players in my lineups relative to their overall ownership.
Cavaliers vs. Warriors (-9.5); Total 227
Cavs have the worst net rating in the league. Warriors are 12th and coming off a bad loss against the Nets. Blowout in favor of the Warriors.
DFS Targets: I’m avoiding everyone in this game. I’d lean Steph and Oubre if I had to choose.
Heat vs. Clippers (-3.5); Total 216
23rd ranked net rating vs. the 4th ranked net rating. We’ve got another blowout on hand. Clippers by plenty.
DFS Targets: The Heat are a wild card because I don’t actually believe they’re as bad as they’ve been. But DFS is all about process. I’d fade this game, but if you don’t want to, go with Kawhi and Paul George if he plays.
Nets (-4) vs. Kings; Total 243
The Nets just blew out the Warriors. What do you think they’re going to do the Kings?!
DFS Targets: Let’s start preparing for Tuesday’s games. Well….if Kawhi doesn’t play, that changes things. Clippers still win, but it may not be a blowout. If Paul George plays, I’m back to blowout status. It’s tricky business. I’m still fading.
Don’t forget to check back later in the day as Bradlee will be updating his NBA DFS preview with all the info you need to turn tonight’s slate into a resounding success!
If you are reading this on Fantrax.com make sure to head on over to FantraxHQ to check out Brad’s afternoon updates.
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