We follow up a doozy of an 11-game slate, with a mini four-game main slate. That’s okay! We don’t need humongous slates to profit. In fact, these smaller slates are some of my favorites, because we can be more discerning with our player pool selections, AND making multiple NBA DFS lineups gets you more bang for your buck. Onward!
Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
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NBA DFS Targets and Preview for Feb. 13
Pacers (-1.5) vs. Hawks; Total 223.5
This is going to be a closely fought game. The Pacers and Hawks are essentially the same team. They are ranked 11th and 12th, respectively, in net rating. 15th and 11th in offensive rating. 13th and 15th in defensive rating. In terms of pace of play, they are 14th and 18th, respectively. That doesn’t guarantee a close game, but I think it’s reasonable to expect one. I think the Pacers have more cohesion and also have a better record, so I lean towards Indiana getting the win.
DFS Targets: In terms of NBA DFS targets, a close game is great. As a matter of fact, we hope we roster players and it goes to overtime, as we’d have more minutes to produce more counting stats. On the Pacers, I’d target: Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, Justin Holiday, and Jeremy Lamb. On the Hawks: Trae Young, Cam Reddish, John Collins, and Clint Capela are all reasonable targets to exceed their salary.
Rockets (-1) vs. Knicks; Total 213
They’re not going to get any Coach of the Year votes, but Silas (a 1st-year coach) and Thibs have both led their teams to the 2nd and 5th ranked defenses in the NBA. I wouldn’t have put a penny on that bet this year. Not even if you told me you were from the future, and it was absolutely going to happen. It’s shocking that these teams known for being relatively incompetent, are legitimately becoming decent. Here’s the kicker, they rank 26th and 24th in offensive rating. That’s why the Knicks traded for D-Rose, and why the Rockets will look for offensive help next year. Both teams are almost there.
DFS Targets: I try to avoid targeting players that are facing great defenses. I definitely try to avoid targeting players that are facing great defenses, if they are in horrendous offenses. Let’s just stick with consistent stars with high usage rates for safety: John Wall and Julius Randle.
Nets (-3.5) vs. Warriors; Total 245
The Nets played a little defense the last time we saw them, and that’s without KD. They’ll be getting KD back for this matchup, last I read. KD back against GSW, plus Kyrie, plus Harden…I don’t care how well Steph is playing right now, I don’t anticipate that he’ll be able to keep the Warriors in this game.
DFS Targets: I expect a blowout, but on a short slate like this, we shouldn’t ignore games. Put KD, Kyrie, and Harden in your player pools. On GSW, I like Draymond Green, Steph, Oubre, and Wiggins.
Heat vs. Jazz (-7); Total 215.5
The Jazz are the 2nd ranked team in the league in terms of net rating, right now. The Heat are 23rd. In a larger slate, we’re avoiding the potential blowout games. In a short slate, lets target Jazz stars, and garbage time Heat players.
DFS Targets: We should focus on Gobert and Mitchell for the Jazz. The Heat are interesting from a reserve perspective, and will help us make some stars/scrubs rosters, since we can potentially get a lot of value out of guys like Max Strus, Precious Achiuwa, Gabe Vincent, and Kendrick Nunn would probably still be on the court in garbage time, despite the chance he may start.
Don’t forget to check back later in the day as Bradlee will be updating his NBA DFS preview with all the info you need to turn tonight’s slate into a resounding success!
If you are reading this on Fantrax.com make sure to head on over to FantraxHQ to check out Brad’s afternoon updates.
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