Daily Preview and NBA DFS Picks for 2/10/2021
A nine game slate tonight? Yes, please. We’ve been on a bit of a heater with our NBA DFS targets lately, so we’ll do our best to continue the trend. At the very least, I’m hoping my Wizards can get a two-game win streak going. Y’all care about that right? That’s why you’re reading this.
Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
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NBA DFS Targets and Preview for Feb. 10
Raptors (-5) vs. Wizards; Total 234.5
Don’t stop, belieeeeevin’. Hold on to that FEEEEEELIN’!!!! The Washington Wizards are back in the win column! It had been a while since I could type that. I miss it. Let’s start the playoff push. As a reward for their competence, the Wiz get to play a Raptors team that is 9th in net rating vs. Washington’s 26th. I’d love to be a homer here and talk about how their league-leading pace can close that gap, but I can’t write that in good conscience.
DFS Targets: This game is headed for a blowout. I wouldn’t target any of these players. If you want to take a gamble, go take a look at the low priced reserves, like Troy Brown Jr., Raul Neto, and DeAndre Bembry. They can absolutely rack up garbage time points in a hurry. But this is not a target recommendation. I’m just being a good DFS citizen.
Hawks vs. Mavericks (-4); Total 232.5
Hawks vs. Mavs would’ve been a much more fast-paced matchup last year. This year, however, the Trae Young led Hawks are 18th in pace, vs. the Luka led Mavs at 16th in the league. The return of Kristaps for the Mavs and the addition of Clint Capela on the Hawks is slowing everything down for both teams. That matters for DFS on a relative basis, but it doesn’t mean anyone on the team is necessarily a bad play.
DFS Targets: I’m expecting a close game here, despite the disparity in net ratings between the two teams (Hawks are 11th and the Mavs are 22nd). The Mavs aren’t playing like the team that their net ratings are showing, as of late. I like Luka and Kristaps on the Mavs, and 4 of the 5 starters on the Hawks. I’d leave Kevin Huerter out of the mix, due to his inconsistency. He can knock down threes, but he’s become the 5th option on that court with Trae, Reddish, Capela, and Collins.
Pacers vs. Nets; Total 235
No KD, no victory. That’s what I’ve learned about this team. They’re talented enough on offense to score with anybody, without KD. The problem is, he’s the only one of the scorers who can actually play game-altering defense. The Nets have the 4th worst defensive rating in the league, and those numbers include KD. Without him, I don’t know that they can keep up with a team that is only a few slots behind the Nets in pace and net rating. I like the Pacers here.
DFS Targets: We like Kyrie, Harden, and Joe Harris on the Nets. On the Pacers, I’d put Brogdon, Lamb, Sabonis, and Turner in my player pool. I expect high efficiency on offense for the Pacers against a defense that is so bad, they thought the best course of action is to sign Iman Shumpert and Noah Vonleh. That’s no shade, but let’s be honest. That’s quite the step down from trading for The Beard.
Hornets vs. Grizzlies (-3); Total 224.5
The Hornets and Grizzlies are very similar teams this year. Net rating of 14 and 18, respectively. 17 and 22 on offensive rating. 11 and 10 on defensive rating. 18 and 14 on pace. This could be one of those games where whoever has the last possession gets the win. I’m going to go with the Hornets, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
DFS Targets: LaMelo has become undeniable as a starter, hasn’t he?! You love to see it. The problem is, for NBA DFS purposes, when you become undeniable, the DFS sites make your salary reflect how dominant you truly are. Melo’s recent string of excellent games has priced him out of play for me tonight. That’s not to say he won’t ball out. I just don’t want to bet on a rookie to be consistently great. Especially on a 9 game slate where we’ll have a bunch of other PGs to choose from. I like Hayward and Zeller for CHA. On the Grizz, I like Morant, Brooks, Bane, and Jonas.
Clippers (-8.5) vs. Timberwolves; Total 225
Clippers are 4th in net rating and the T-Wolves are last. The Clippers are also looking like they’ll have Paul George back for this one. Clippers in a blowout.
DFS Targets: I’m avoiding everyone in this game. PG coming back takes from Kawhi’s usage a bit, and they may only play 3 quarters. You work hard for your money, don’t hope.
Pelicans (-2.5) vs. Bulls; Total 229.5
Zach Lavine is BACK! Looking like he’s jealous of all the Brad Beal trade talk. Lavine is worthy of commanding a 1st round pick or two, his DAMN self. These two teams are very similar in that they are both average. They are 17th and 19th in net rating, and don’t really have a direction for how they’re trying to build the team. They have young stars, but are they buyers or sellers? Time will tell.
DFS Targets: Zach Lavine is a must roster lately, and his salary isn’t too cumbersome considering the instant offense he can provide. Valentine and Williams are excellent value plays as do-everything guards. Coby White is too inconsistent for my liking, but he should also be in your player pool. For the Pels, I like Lonzo, Brandon Ingram, and Zion. That’s about it.
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets (-9.5); Total 219
No. Don’t even think about expecting anything but a blowout here. The 8th ranked net rating vs. the 28th ranked net rating. Also one of these teams has Nikola Jokic.
DFS Targets: Onward.
Bucks (-4) vs. Suns; Total 227.5
If you’re on the East Coast, don’t be afraid to drink a 7 PM cup of coffee to stay up late for this one. It’s a 10PM EST tip for this game, but I think it’ll be well worth the wait. We’ve got the top-ranked team in net rating with the Bucks, vs. the 7th ranked Suns. The teams match up well from a player perspective, as well. Jrue Holiday vs. Chris Paul. Devin Booker vs. Khris Middleton. Giannis is likely the matchup breaker, but the Suns also have another star in DeAndre Ayton. I like the Bucks to win this one, but it will be fun to watch.
DFS Targets: Target the six guys mentioned above in your player pool. In terms of weightings for those making multiple lineups, you’ll want to be underweight Booker and Paul, as Jrue Holiday, Middleton, and Giannis will make it very difficult to get one-on-one buckets. On the other hand, there is a reason both teams are top tercile in defensive rating. The team defense is there, so I don’t expect the Bucks to get clean buckets either. This could very well be one of those games that’s better to watch, than it is for DFS. Tread carefully.
Thunder vs. Lakers (-12); Total 217
I want to call this game a blowout, but the Thunder took it to OT, just a couple nights ago. LeBron has now played 11 quarters of basketball in the last two games. That’s a lot of extra mileage for the vet. I know better than to bet against LeBron, though. Lakers win.
DFS Targets: I expect AD to be back, which means he should be in your player pool. LeBron as well. Dennis Schroder has found his footing on the team as well. I like Shai and Bazley for the Thunder.
Don’t forget to check back later in the day as Bradlee will be updating his NBA DFS preview with all the info you need to turn tonight’s slate into a resounding success!
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