We’ve got a baby three game slate to fool around with on this NFL football Sunday. These can be the most fun to play as tournaments may not fill up, and there are less relevant players in your player pool, so you might be able to pull down a win! Don’t just focus on football today, your odds are as good as they’re going to be. Because the tournaments are bigger on Draftkings, I’ll focus on those prices, so be mindful if you’re using Fanduel, Yahoo, or any other competitor, that varying prices will also change the attractiveness of each play.
Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
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NBA DFS Targets and Preview for December 5
Hornets (13-11) vs. Hawks (12-11)
Offensive Rating: 4th vs. 3rd in the league
Defensive Rating: 28th vs. 24th in the league
Net Rating: 19th vs. 9th in the league
Pace: 2nd vs. 21st in the league
Predicted Outcome: Normally, I’d say that this will be a great match. Two evenly ranked teams that know how to put points on the board, but aren’t too interested in getting stops. There’s just one problem: Covid protocols have ravaged the Hornets this week. Charlotte will be without LaMelo Ball, Jalen McDaniels, Mason Plumlee, and Terry Rozier for the immediate future. There will be some DFS values on the Hornets today, but the Hawks should win this one easily.
DFS Targets: I tend to avoid superstar prices in a potential blowout, so I’ll be fading Trae Young, who is questionable today anyway. I’ll also avoid Capela and Bridges at $8200 and $8400. The real value will be with the players who benefit from the freed up usage by missing Rozier, Plumlee, and LaMelo. Hayward, Oubre, Washington, and Ish Smith will rocket up my DFS Big Board at $7000, $6100, $5700, and $4800. Hawks should handle this one, even without Trae, but DFS luck will favor Charlotte.
Wizards (14-9) vs. Raptors (10-13)
Offensive Rating: 19th vs. 14th in the league
Defensive Rating: 14th vs. 23rd in the league
Net Rating: 17th vs. 21st in the league
Pace: 24th vs. 28th in the league
Predicted Outcome: One thing interesting about my Wizards is that the stats seem to suggest that they aren’t as good as their record. They rank in the bottom half of the league in net rating, while their record is 5 games above .500. The Raptors are playing more in line with their statistics. These two teams play at a similar pace, but the Wizards are more defensively focused, where the Raptors are better at getting buckets. I tend to side with Washington on this one. Not just because I’m a homer, but because I believe they have better team, and when in doubt, go with the better record. Also…I’m a homer.
DFS Targets: VanVleet, Beal, Siakam, and Barnes are my favorite high priced plays on the day ($9200, $9100, $8700, and $8000). If you can figure out a way to work all four in your lineups today, you might be sitting pretty by the end of the night. Gafford has been a points-per-minute monster at times this season, and I think he’s set to do that again tonight at $5100. A KCP dart throw, may burn you, or win you the night. His price has taken a dip into $4200, which is right around where it makes sense to take a risk on him.
Pelicans (7-18) vs. Rockets (6-16)
Offensive Rating: 26th vs. 27th in the league
Defensive Rating: 29th vs. 18th in the league
Net Rating: 26th vs. 27th in the league
Pace: 20th vs. 1st in the league
Predicted Outcome: Neither of these teams can score. Neither of these teams play good defense, but Houston is somehow better. Both of these teams are league bottom feeders. But at least the Rockets play fast. I’ll roll with them tonight.
DFS Targets: Wood at $9600 is a bit rich for my blood, especially in a fast paced game. I’ll also avoid Jonas as this game will feature guards. Ingram is probably under-priced for his name brand and recent performances. $8800 is a steal. Tate has been boom or bust, but at $6600 he’s a favorite of mine in this matchup. He’ll make all of my lineups, especially with KCP out. I’ve vowed to never put Eric Gordon in a lineup again. I don’t care if he’s free. Very frustrating DFS player (especially with his role on this team).
Don’t forget to check back later in the day as Bradlee will be updating his NBA DFS preview with all the info you need to turn tonight’s slate into a resounding success!
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