Tonight we’ve got a mini two-game slate. There are only so many combinations and permutations we can actually tackle with such so few options, so expect a relatively low optimal score, and expect it to be you! Let’s get it!
Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
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NBA DFS Targets and Preview for January 18
Timberwolves (21-22) vs. Knicks (22-22)
Offensive Rating: 19th vs. 24th in the league
Defensive Rating: 8th vs. 16th in the league
Net Rating: 22nd vs. 15th in the league
Pace: 30th vs. 5th in the league
Predicted Outcome: Two middling teams with alternative play styles will battle it out. The Knicks play quickly, with a lot of possessions (surprising coming from a Thibs-coached team), while the Wolves play slowly and funnel their usage between three players. The Knicks are the better team, but I think the Wolves’ defense will get the job done. Roll with the Wolves.
DFS Targets: You won’t win this slate tonight trying to pick all the players everyone else is going to pick. You’ll need to nail some low-owned players with upside in order to take down a tournament. For the Wolves, you won’t go wrong with their big three of Edwards, KAT, and Russell ($8600, $10200, and $8200). However, it’s the Jarred Vanderbilt’s who’ve had 50 point upside recently at $5700 that could win you the slate. Pat Bev at $5500 is intriguing as well. I imagine Malik Beasley will be very low owned at $4400. As for the Knicks, Burks is coming off a poor performance yesterday at $6500. Take a stab. Fournier and Robinson as well ($5500 and $5400). The Randle and Barrett duo should obviously also be considered.
Pistons (10-32) vs. Warriors (31-12)
Offensive Rating: 30th vs. 11th in the league
Defensive Rating: 23rd vs.1st in the league
Net Rating: 30th vs. 1st in the league
Pace: 11th vs. 12th in the league
Predicted Outcome: Best team in the league vs. the worst team in the league. Normally this would be a game that I avoided on a DFS slate, considering the blowout potential. However, on a two-game slate, there’s no running away from this one. The Warriors should handle this, but we’ll need to target the guards, primarily with the two teams’ pace of play.
DFS Targets: Frankly, there aren’t any safe options on the Pistons (not even Cade at $7500). So you should target some of them, considering you’ll need to hit value on low-owned players on a short slate, in order to win. Bey and Diallo are overpriced at $6500 and $6400, so you should have a few lineups with them. Cory Joseph is almost a must-play at $5200. The same goes for Kuminga on the Warriors for $4300. Steph and Klay will be in my lineups, but I’ll probably be underweight the field, considering their ownership levels. Wiggins, Poole, and Porter Jr. are intriguing at $6700, $6000, and $5800. Damion Lee could win you the slate if we get a blowout here at $3500.
Don’t forget to check back later in the day as Bradlee will be updating his NBA DFS preview with all the info you need to turn tonight’s slate into a resounding success!
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