To close out the fantasy baseball season, we’ll break down a hitter and pitcher that consistently performed well throughout the season. When digging into the surface and advanced stats, it’ll help decide whether to buy or sell each player for the 2022 season. Jorge Polanco felt like a safer middle infielder that could accumulate counting stats. Meanwhile, veteran Adam Wainwright hadn’t popped on my radar heading into the start of the 2021 season. Scrolling through the Razzball Player Rater, and both Polanco and Wainwright sit as top-50 players overall. Just like we all expected, right.
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Buy or Sell – League Winners In Jorge Polanco & Adam Wainwright
Jorge Polanco (2B/SS – MIN)
As we finish the 2021 season, Jorge Polanco either broke or nearly reached career-bests across the board. Through 630 plate appearances, Polanco boasts 32 home runs, 94 runs, 94 RBIs, and 11 SBs. He smashed the previous career-high in 2019 of 22 home runs and came close to the 2017 stolen base total of 13 in fewer plate appearances. Polanco set a career-high with 94 RBIs and just fell short of the 107 runs scored in 2019.
Given the home runs, Jorge Polanco’s power stood out, and he typically racked up a ton of doubles with 35 in 2021 and 40 in 2019. Polanco’s increase in power doesn’t tank the batting average with .271 and a .832 OPS. Even Polanco’s 6.9% walk rate and 18.2% strikeout rate looked similar to his career 7.5% walk rate and 16.7% strikeout rate.
Polanco’s Batted Ball Profile
Throughout Jorge Polanco’s career, he typically boasts quality line drive rates with a 23.3% LD% in 2021. Interestingly, Polanco’s fly ball rate (44.4%) sits higher than his career 42%. However, Polanco rocks the highest pull rate of his career at 52.4% compared to a career pull rate of 42.6%. Polanco pulled most of the balls to the first base side as a switch hitter.
When compared to previous seasons, Polanco sprayed the ball a bit more to centerfield. However, the pull rate to the right side could be a product of volume.
Polanco’s Plate Discipline
It appears Jorge Polanco used a more aggressive approach in 2021 with a 33.6% O-Swing% and 49.4% Swing%. Polanco makes a similar amount of contact, and it’s no reason to panic seeing a dip in the zone and overall contact rates. Since Polanco’s sits above the league averages, we shouldn’t sound the alarm with a more aggressive approach. It’s also translating into more power production.
Polanco’s Baseball Savant Data
Unsurprisingly, with more power, Jorge Polanco boasts a career-best 9.9% barrel rate (64th-percentile). While that doesn’t scream amazing, it’s almost double his career 5.5% barrel rate across seven seasons with Baseball Savant data.
Interestingly, Jorge Polanco’s maximum exit velocity looks similar at 109.9 mph with above-average expected stats. However, Polanco’s typical profile doesn’t fare well in smashing Baseball Savant hard-hit metrics. However, Polanco’s 93.4 mph exit velocity on FB/LD (No. 71) sits near Trey Mancini and Mookie Betts.
For context, Polanco held an 89.2 mph exit velocity on FB/LD (No. 137) in 2020 and a 91.7 mph (No. 103) in 2019. An increase in barrel rate and exit velocity on FB/LD makes sense, given the 2021 power surge and better quality of contact metrics. Again to back up the power in 2021, Polanco’s 58.1% No Doubter Home Run rate finished much higher than 39.1% in 2019 and 25% in 2020.
Should We Buy or Sell Polanco?
Before the season, I wanted to buy rather than sell Jorge Polanco as a safe hitter that accumulates counting stats when healthy or not suspended. Polanco’s NFBC ADP sat in the mid-250s in the final two weeks of the 2021 draft season. Polanco ranks as the 5th best second baseman and shortstop on the Razzball Player Rater. Thus, Polanco smashed his 2021 ADP.
After digging into the underlying metrics, it leads to buying into Polanco’s career or near best 2021 season. The questions involve Polanco’s best barrel rate and exit velocity on FB/LD – will it remain that way in 2022? Polanco’s track record would tell us to fade the hard-hit metrics, but it’s a large enough sample that it’ll depend on his ADP on whether to buy or sell in 2022.
Adam Wainwright (SP – STL)
From 2016 to 2019, Adam Wainwright held a 4.58 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 19.4% strikeout rate, and 8% walk rate in 534 innings pitched. Wainwright’s .324 BABIP and 71.9% LOB% looked like he ran into some misfortune, but it’s a relatively large sample. Then in 2020, Wainwright finished with a solid season, evidenced by a 3.15 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 20.6% strikeout rate, and 5.7% walk rate in 65 2/3 innings.
So do we trust the four seasons before 2020 or lean into the shortened season? Well, fantasy managers that decided to buy rather than sell Wainwright’s 2020 season reaped the rewards in 2021. Wainwright already reached over 200 innings, the first time since 2014, even though he almost reached that mark in 2016 with 198 2/3 innings.
Like 2020, Wainwright provided quality ratios with a 3.05 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 21% strikeout rate, and 6% walk rate. The .256 BABIP and 78.4% LOB% look almost identical to his 2020 season and better than Wainwright’s career averages.
Wainwright’s Pitch Mix & Results
Adam Wainwright still relies on the sexy curveball with decent whiff rates and above-average horizontal movement. Outside of Wainwright’s curveball with a 33.6% usage rate, he also uses the sinker (28.1%) and cutter (22.3%) to account for over 84% of his pitch mix.
Wainwright’s curve and cutter elicit the most whiffs with a double-digit swinging-strike rate on both pitches. Outside of Wainwright’s 16.6% swinging-strike rate on the curveball in 2020, it typically sat around 12-14% with a 12.4% SwStr% in 2021.
As a pitcher that relies on command and control, Wainwright pounds the zone with the curveball, sinker, and cutter, which he uses often. Nothing mind-blowing, but he’s a veteran pitcher that pitches to contact and uses his pitches effectively.
The Statcast Swing Take visual on Baseball Savant indicate Wainwright’s command and control via the negative Run Values, particularly in the heart and shadow zones.
Wainwright’s curveball consistently boasted above-average horizontal movement with 5.9 inches more than average in 2021, 5.6 inches in 2020, and 7.9 inches in 2019. It’s a slow curve hovering around 73-74 mph with above-average vertical movement too, but not as much like the horizontal break.
Should We Buy or Sell Wainwright?
Since Adam Wainwright hadn’t registered on my radar, it seems we should buy rather than sell his 2021 and 2020 seasons. However, it’s safe to have skepticism with a 40-year-old pitcher that isn’t in the Max Scherzer or ace-like realm. With his success in 2021, we expect Wainwright’s 2022 ADP to jump possibly inside the top-250 picks or higher.
However, depending on how the ADP shakes out, Wainwright may serve as an innings eater with decent ratios even though it’s hard to buy into the ERA in the low 3.00s with the elite WHIP. If it seems I’m lukewarm on Wainwright, that’s spot on because my draft philosophy revolves around attacking pitchers early. That said, it may mean I’ll target a different position near Wainwright’s 2022 ADP. Overall, we should buy if the ADP doesn’t jump much from his 2020 316 ADP. However, don’t buy but sell and avoid Wainwright if the ADP zooms too high.
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