We have three players involved in this installment of the buy or sell series. One of which includes a post, post, post-hype sleeper in Lewis Brinson since he’s swinging a hot bat. The other is a struggling Dodgers’ hitter that has dealt with multiple injuries in the offseason and during the season. Finally, we have a Mariners pitcher that doesn’t provide much strikeout upside but keeps the ERA in check. Hopefully, fantasy managers have survived or thrived up to this point. If not, keep grinding because you could land a hot streak and improve those ratios while catching up in counting stats.
What?! Your season-long fantasy baseball league is not using Fantrax? Inconceivable! Check out everything Fantrax has to offer and I’m sure you’ll come around to our way of thinking.
Buy or Sell – Brinson’s Time, Bellinger’s Struggles, and Chris Flexen On Us
Lewis Brinson (OF – MIA)
My, oh my, we have Lewis Brinson finally producing with the tools and power. Since mid-July, when the Marlins called up Brinson again, he is hitting .309 with five home runs, 15 runs, and 20 RBI with a .964 OPS. It looks partly BABIP driven with a .364 BABIP in that stretch. Brinson boasts a 10% barrel rate plus a 50% hard-hit rate with a healthy 23.3% line drive rate.
We know Lewis Brinson’s issues surround plate discipline. However, Brinson’s 26.6% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate slightly improved the past two seasons. During Brinson’s hot stretch, his 41.5% O-Swing% dropped from a 44.1% chase rate on the season. Meanwhile, Brinson’s contact rate increased, evidenced by his 87.1% Z-Contact% and 69.8% Contact% compared to his season-long 82.1% Z-Contact% and 68.7% Contact%. The highlight involves the improved zone contact rate.
Should We Buy or Sell Brinson?
Overall, Lewis Brinson improved his plate discipline with a lower chase rate and an increased contact rate, plus a slightly improved barrel rate. Although the high BABIP boosts Brinson’s batting average, it’s still positive to see some underlying changes. However, the higher line drive rate during that stretch and in 2021 will help boost the batting average and BABIP.
Brinson graded out with above-average and plus-graded tools across the board, but the hit tool lagged. The recent hot stretch led Brinson’s roster rate to pick up in most leagues, even some dynasty formats where managers may have cut bait. Make sure Brinson isn’t hanging around on waivers because we have some batted ball and plate discipline metrics that back up the production, which leads us to buy more than sell his success.
Per an article in the Miami Herald, Brinson noted that he trusts his skills and feels more confident this season. Sometimes we can’t quantify some changes, struggles, and successes. Against fastballs, Brinson boasts a career-best .415 wOBA and a career-high .408 wOBA against offspeed pitches. Yet another positive reason to buy rather than sell Brinson’s success, but the high chase rate still sticks out in my mind.
Cody Bellinger (1B/OF – LAD)
In the final two weeks of the fantasy baseball season, Cody Bellinger held an ADP in the middle of the second round with an NFBC ADP of 18.18. Unfortunately for Bellinger, he battled injuries throughout the season. In the offseason, Bellinger underwent shoulder surgery, which scared off fantasy managers, and rightfully so. Then during the season, Bellinger dealt with a calf injury that kept him out for over a month, then a hamstring issue that made him miss a couple of weeks.
All that said, the injuries and missed playing time contributed to the ugly season-long stats of nine home runs, 34 runs, 29 RBI, and two stolen bases with a .181 batting average. However, Bellinger is heating up in August with a .256 batting average, four home runs, and a .932 OPS. Bellinger’s 17.2% barrel rate during that stretch jumped from his season-long 10.1% barrel rate.
Meanwhile, Bellinger’s contact rate increased with an 80.3% Z-Contact% compared to a season-long rate of 76.9%. However, it seems Bellinger’s aggressive approach with a 40.3% O-Swing% and 54.3% Swing% in August may help as well. Throughout the season, Bellinger possesses a career worse 34% O-Swing% with near career lows in contact rate.
Should We Buy or Sell Bellinger?
In trading leagues or dynasty leagues, attempt to acquire Cody Bellinger because of his recent hot surge and the season-long struggles. I’m buying rather than selling the narrative that Bellinger’s injuries hampered him throughout the season.
In the offseason, I wrote up the first base tiers and noted the injury risks with Bellinger heading into the 2021 season. Several factors in Bellinger’s profile would lead us to believe the injuries have bugged him throughout the season, including the plate discipline, maximum exit velocity down four mph, and other Statcast metrics. Bellinger’s wOBA by pitch below provides a visual of the struggles for him in 2021.
In 2022, assuming health, I expect Bellinger to bounce back somewhere between his 2018 and 2019 season, where he provides power and speed plus a batting near his career .263 BA. Buy into the recent surge and underlying skills rather than sell or fade Bellinger’s season-long production. Just like we gave some players a pass with COVID-19 issues last season and in 2021, I’m doing the same with Bellinger in 2022.
Chris Flexen (SP – SEA)
Outside of one poor start where Chris Flexen allowed seven earned runs to the Astros, Flexen allowed three or fewer earned runs in 11 out of 12 starts dating back to June 9. Since that point, Flexen boasts a 3.10 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 17.7% strikeout rate, and 5.1% walk rate. It looks like he ran into some fortune with a .289 BABIP allowed and an 80.1% LOB% compared to his season-long .309 BABIP and 75.3% LOB%.
The Mariners blueprint since Jerry Dipoto became the general manager involves controlling the strike zone. You’ll notice many of the Mariners hitters have solid plate discipline, and their pitchers limit the walks. Someone on Twitter asked about Chris Flexen, so let’s break down what’s going on with Flexen in 2021.
Flexen’s Pitch Mix & Results
Although Chris Flexen K-BB% may not stand out, he tosses four different pitches that include a four-seamer, cutter, changeup, and curveball. Flexen limits the walks while also limiting the home runs, evidenced by a 0.93 HR/9 that ranks 16th amongst qualified pitchers near Chris Bassitt and Lance Lynn. He also boasts a low 9.2% HR/FB%, the sixth-lowest amongst qualified pitchers near Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson.
Flexen’s changeup and curveball look like his best whiff pitches with double-digit swinging-strike rates. Meanwhile, Flexen hammers the zone with the four-seamer and cutter while pitching to contact. He uses the changeup as a weapon against lefties, with 257 of 323 total changeups thrown against opposite-handed hitters.
We noticed a slight difference with Flexen’s curveball and cutter in that he throws them less in the zone with less overall contact. Flexen doesn’t blow anyone away with velocity as his four-seamer sits at 92.6 mph. However, all of his pitches have either vertical or horizontal movement that looks slightly above average. The most notable involves Flexen’s curveball with 2.9 inches more vertical and 2.3 inches more horizontal movement.
From a Run-Value standpoint, Chris Flexen’s changeup boasts a -7, and the four-seamer holds a -4 Run-Value. However, Flexen’s cutter doesn’t look great with a +6 Run-Value. Last week, we noted Aaron Nola’s struggles in the shadow zone as a pitcher that relies on command and control. Fortunately, for Flexen, that’s where he thrives in the shadow zone per the Statcast Swing Take chart.
Should We Buy or Sell Flexen?
The ERA estimators indicate Chris Flexen’s ERA may jump given the 3.84 FIP, 4.50 xFIP, and 4.27 xERA. Since xFIP assumes a league-average HR/FB%, it makes sense to see it higher than his actual 3.78 ERA since he suppresses home runs so far in 2021. Although Flexen’s WHIP may sit a little higher than we’d like, given his profile, he should keep the ERA in check with the relative consistency he provided this season.
After favorable moments in June and July, it looks like Flexen experienced some misfortune recently, and the wOBA by pitch throughout the season below gives us a brief look at that.
Flexen’s profile looks similar to Alec Mills, which means he falls more in the deep league streamer group. I’m buying rather than selling the changes he made with the Mariners after bouncing around with the Mets and then, most recently, the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO). However, it looks like either reducing the cutter usage and making adjustments would help. Until then, Flexen likely lacks the strikeout upside we want. A random better-case scenario that I could envision for Flexen involves Jake Odorizzi.
Fantrax was one of the fastest-growing fantasy sites of 2020, and we’re not stopping now. With multi-team trades, designated commissioner/league managers, and drag/drop easy click methods, Fantrax is sure to excite the serious fantasy sports fan – sign up now for a free year at Fantrax.com.