While bold predictions in fantasy football can sometimes backfire completely, the Fantrax crew had its most successful collection of calls yet in Week 4. Of the three running backs suggested to get in your Week 4 lineups, all of them scored double-digit PPR points. That’s Zack Moss, Michael Carter, and Leonard Fournette. In fact, Mick Ciallela was just about dead-on with Fournette’s rushing and receiving box score minus the touchdowns! Furthermore, quarterback Taylor Heinicke came in as QB5 and wide receiver, Corey Davis, as WR6 on the week, both of whom made the Week 4 bold prediction list as potential top players.
It’s not always pretty and breaking down the film always tells more of an intricate story of where things may have gone wrong. Bad luck, penalties, injuries, and a wide variety of variables, no matter how minor, can affect these bold predictions. Even still, there’s work to be done and this selected Fantrax crew continues to analyze statistics, trends, and narrative-based research that fuels each of our weekly picks.
Each week, our Fantrax staff writers will make their fantasy football bold predictions for you to get excited about, help sway those lineup decisions, and take your team to the moon!
Be sure to follow all of these bold predictions and more @Fantrax on Twitter and @fantraxsports on Instagram!
Yeah, we know football is in full swing. That doesn’t mean you can’t jump onto the fantasy ice? From joining a public league with our Fantasy Hockey Commissioner to trying one of our Classic Draft Contests, there are plenty of ways to play Fantasy Hockey on Fantrax!
2021 NFL Week 5 Bold Predictions for Fantasy Football
Damien Williams, Chicago Bears, Running Back
Bold Prediction: 15 carries, 70 rushing yards, 1 touchdown; 5 receptions, 30 receiving yards
21.0 PPR fantasy points
Fantrax Writer: Colin McTamany, @LincoCammytan on Twitter
Colin’s Breakdown: Next man up in the Chicago backfield! Damien Williams is the new Bears lead back following a knee injury to David Montgomery that’s expected to keep him out perhaps through the team’s Week 10 bye. The last time Williams started a game at running back was as a member of the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV. He rushed 17 times for 104 yards and one score adding four receptions for 29 yards and a receiving touchdown.
The Bears head to Vegas on Sunday. While the Raiders’ defense is an improvement so far upon last season, they’re still allowing the 10th-most rushing yards per game, 132.2, through the first four weeks. They’ve also allowed four total rushing touchdowns, an average of one per game. Last week, against a Lions defense allowing the ninth-most rushing yards per game, Justin Fields handed the ball off to Montgomery 23 times before he exited with his knee injury. Williams carried the ball eight additional times of his own for 55 yards and a score.
I expect the first game, immediately after naming Fields the official starter moving forward, to have a similar game plan. If you grabbed Williams off of the waiver wire ahead of this week, well done. Now, follow my bold prediction and slide him in as an RB2 with major upside in this enticing matchup.
Henry Ruggs, Las Vegas Raiders Wide Receiver
Bold Prediction: 6 receptions, 124 receiving yards, 1 touchdown; 1 carry, 11 rushing yards
25.5 fantasy points
Fantrax Writer: Mike Omelan, @mikeomelan on Twitter
Mike’s Breakdown: So far, so good for second-year receiver, Henry Ruggs. After a hot and cold rookie fantasy season, Ruggs is off to a solid start in 2021 averaging 12.65 PPR fantasy points per week. He’s yet to record anything less than 46 receiving yards and has seen at least five targets per game from Derek Carr.
Speaking of Derek Carr, he’s entering Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season as the passing yards leader. He’s actually overthrown Ruggs a handful of times already this season. The potential for more from Ruggs is there and why I have him as my bold prediction for Week 5.
Ruggs ranks eighth in air yards with 446 total in the first four weeks. The Chicago Bears are allowing almost 10 yards per target this season. All it takes to cash in here is one big downfield connection between Carr and Ruggs. I not only feel good about the probability of that happening, but comfortable, if not, with the production Ruggs has been consistently putting together week by week.
Damien Harris, New England Patriots Running Back
Bold Prediction: 23 carries, 120 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns
24.0 fantasy points
Fantrax Writer: Justin Dunbar, @talkMVP on Twitter
Justin’s Breakdown: The Patriots have the largest Week 5 spread as a -9.0 favorite at the Houston Texans. This game has the lowest point total of the week with an O/U of 39.5 total points. If you saw what Bill Belichick and his coaching staff schemed up against rookie quarterback, Zach Wilson, in Week 2, then get ready for what’s going into their game plan against Hoston rookie, Davis Mills.
With that all in mind, I think this bold prediction comes at the mercy of a ground and pound, clock-killing game script. The Texans allow the fifth-most rushing yards per game to running backs. They’ve also allowed the fifth-most points in general on averaging giving up 29.0 to their opponents.
Look for Damien Harris to confidently lead this backfield in carries Sunday and coast to an easy win. It may be easier than you think for him to churn out this 100+ yard day. So, it’s just that much better when he finds the end zone twice in this one.
Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills Running Back
Bold Prediction: 13 carries, 92 rushing yards; 5 receptions, 43 receiving yards; 2 total touchdowns
30.5 fantasy points
Fantrax Writer: Michael Govier, @mjgovier on Twitter
Michael’s Breakdown: Zack Moss’ touches continue to increase each week since being a healthy scratch from the Bills’ Week 1 lineup. While out-snapping Devin Singletary the last two weeks, Moss has even produced more output as a pass-catcher with a receiving touchdown to his credit. I don’t expect the momentum to swing back toward Singletary this week especially.
The Bills will be playing in prime time against the Kansas City Chiefs for the first time since the 2020 AFC Championship. If you haven’t noticed in the first four weeks, the Chiefs’ defense isn’t so sound. A high-scoring affair is in order. My bold prediction is that Zack Moss will be the big-time beneficiary of the Bills side of things. Get him in your lineups!
Jacoby Brissett, Miami Dolphins Quarterback
Bold Prediction: 300 total yards, 3 total touchdowns
24.0+ fantasy points
Fantrax Writer: Ahaan Rungta, @AhaanRungta on Twitter
Ahaan’s Breakdown: The Buccaneers continue to be a force to be reckoned with stopping the run. Their defense, however, is targetable through the air. Through the first four weeks of the season, Tampa Bay ranks as the #4 defense by rushing DVOA but #21 by passing DVOA.
Now, with cornerbacks Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting already ruled out for Week 5, it’s going to be easier for Jacoby Brissett to take advantage of both his arm and his ability to scramble. The Dolphins should still be playing from behind as the inferior team. Brissett should be able to amass fantasy production easily, as seen from my bold prediction numbers, and put up his best performance of the season.
I had Taylor Heinicke on my Week 4 Love List so it shouldn’t be any surprise that Brissett is the quarterback on my Week 5 Love List.
Laviska Shenault, Jacksonville Jaguars Wide Receiver
Bold Prediction: 8 receptions, 117 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
25.7 fantasy points
Fantrax Writer: Lauren Auerbach, @lkauerbach on Twitter
The Jacksonville Jaguars head home to face off against the Tennessee Titans in Week 5. This is a favorable matchup for Laviska Shenault Jr., with the Titans giving up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. They’re also allowing the tenth-most receiving yards on the season.
Further, Shenault should see an uptick in targets this week after fellow wide receiver, DJ Chark, broke his ankle in Week 4. Shenault is coming off his best game this season, catching six passes for 99 yards. He has yet to find pay dirt, but I expect that to change this week. Not only do I like Shenault to score his first touchdown of the season in Week 5, but I also like the underdog Jaguars to walk away with their first win of the season!
Emmanuel Sanders, Buffalo Bills Wide Receiver
Bold Prediction: 7 receptions, 114 receiving yards, 1 touchdown
24.4 fantasy points
Fantrax Writer: Mick Ciallela, @themick23 on Twitter
Mick’s Breakdown: Emmanuel Sanders has seen at least six targets in every game during his brief tenure as a Buffalo Bill. More importantly, his targets are coming down the field. Sanders is on pace to set a career-high in yards per catch. He has 417 air yards, which ties him for 13th-most in the NFL. Additionally, his 16.04 aDOT (average depth of target) is sixth-highest among all receivers with at least 15 targets this season.
These numbers are noteworthy because Buffalo’s Week 5 opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs, have allowed the ninth-most yards per catch (14.17). They’ve also allowed the eighth-most yards per target (9.31) to opposing wide receivers this season. Sanders should line up against Mike Hughes in coverage than any other Chiefs cornerback. Hughes has allowed 0.47 fantasy points per target thus far. That is the second-highest number among all cornerbacks.
This game should produce plenty of scoring. Sanders has an advantageous individual matchup which generated the idea for this performance to be my weekly bold prediction pick. Fire him up this week as a WR3 who could provide WR1-type fantasy numbers.
Fantrax was one of the fastest-growing fantasy sites of 2020, and we’re not stopping now. With multi-team trades, designated commissioner/league managers, and drag/drop easy click methods, Fantrax is sure to excite the serious fantasy sports fan – sign up now for a free year at Fantrax.com.