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How the Alvin Kamara Suspension Affects His Fantasy Rankings

How does the Alvin Kamara suspension affect his Fantasy ranking?

Today it was announced that Alvin Kamara will be suspended for the first three games of the season.

Kamara was indicted on charges of conspiracy to commit battery and battery resulting in substantial bodily harm from being a part of a group of men that kicked and hit another man outside a hotel elevator during the 2022 Pro Bowl weekend.  Kamara settled those charges after agreeing to plead no contest to a misdemeanor charge of breach of peace. The agreement meant he would have to perform 30 hours of community service and pay the victim $105,196.17 for medical bills.

Kamara also settled the civil suit filed by the victim. Per the agreement, those terms were not disclosed.

This is something to consider when trying to decide where to draft Kamara in this year’s draft.
Fantasy Pros have him ranked at RB28 as of today, before any suspension. We here at Fantrax expected a bit more from him and have him ranked at RB23. I had him ranked RB35 so even lower than most. Going into the draft without a suspension, he ranked as the second or third RB you should take.

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Adjusting ADP Based on an Alvin Kamara Suspension

Working with the projections from Fantasy Pros; his expected rushing yards were 757 and that is with 176 attempts. The average would be 3.9 yards per carry. Projected receiving stats are to be 46 catches with 379 yards. Add 6 touchdowns total and all that adds up to 191 PPR points or 11.23 per game.  Last year he he had 14.1 PPR.

Now working with two fewer games at 11.23 PPR, he now would project out to 168 PPR.

At that range, he is grouped with James Cook, A.J. Dillion, and Antonio Gibson. Those three are going off the board now with an ADP of 80 – 86.

That is only a few spots higher than the rookie Kendre Miller the New Orleans Saints drafted to be one of his backups and he has a very nice upside.

There are reasons I was fading him a bit more than most, even before the suspension. He is now at that magic age of 28. 27 is the age when most running backs start to fade. We saw that start to happen some last year as the season wore on.  His finishes for the last three years were No. 1 in 2020, No. 13 in 2021, and last year he was the RB20. He finished as a top-ten RB only twice last year. Kamara only had four touchdowns. He will also have to share the backfield now with Jamaal Williams who scored 17 touchdowns last year and Kendre Miller.  The New Orleans Saints drafted Miller this year and he has a very nice upside.

With just a three-game suspension he still has good Fantasy value as long as you draft him as your No. 3 back and you are not expecting the 2020 version.

For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!

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