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3 NBA Finals Player Prop Bets for 6/12/23

It may not be Game 7 for the Denver Nuggets, but it certainly is Game 7 for the Miami Heat. It’s an elimination game of a 3-1 series. Let’s take advantage of understanding the incentives for every team involved, and do our best to predict the best NBA Player Prop lines to chase going into tonight’s game. Let’s get into it!

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3 NBA Finals Player Prop Bets for 6/12/23

Miami Heat

Offensive Rating: 25th in the league

Defensive Rating: 8th in the league

Net Rating: 20th in the league

Pace: 29th in the league

Denver Nuggets

Offensive Rating: 5th in the league

Defensive Rating: 18th in the league

Net Rating: 7th in the league

Pace: 21st in the league

Jimmy Butler UNDER 26.5 Points

The Miami Heat go as Jimmy Butler goes, and to be honest, that’s probably the reason they’re down 3-1 in the series right now. Jimmy Butler has been able to drop 30+ at will in previous playoff matchups, but this series has required a little more help from the supporting cast.

Jimmy hasn’t been aggressive in getting to the line and has played as more of a distributor/decoy, as Aaron Gordon has been excellent defensively as his primary defender. There have been rumors that Jimmy Butler has some personal family issues keeping him from focusing completely on basketball, and while we all can relate to that, it probably shouldn’t factor into your prop decisions as nothing has been verified (nor is it actionable).

What is actionable is that in four games vs. Denver in this series, Jimmy has scored under 26 in three of them. Past performance is the best indicator of future performance. Aaron Gordon plus double teams if Jimmy starts to get hot/aggressive will keep Butler’s point total low and force him to be a distributor. The Nuggets want to let Max Strus and Gabe Vincent beat them, if the Heat are going to win.

Max Strus OVER 7.5 Points

With that said, it’s hard to see a line of 7.5 points for a starting three-point shooter and not jump on it. I know Strus has been bad, but it’s not because he’s been facing lockdown defense. He’s simply been missing shots. It happens. Real hoopers know. If the Nuggets are going to focus on Jimmy Butler having a muted night, it’s going to be incumbent on Strus to hit a few threes. He’s had a whopping 0, 14, 3, and 0 points in this series. With an average of 6.5 three-pointers attempted. Expect Strus to hit a few triples tonight and hit our over. The Heat’s season is counting on it. But I will say, if you can find a lower line, with worse odds, I’d jump on it and attach it to a parlay.

Nikola Jokic TO RECORD a Triple Double

If Jokic is breathing, then he’s scoring at least 10 points. If Jokic is walking, he’s getting at least 10 rebounds. If Jokic’s teammates can make wide-open three-pointers and layups, then Jokic is getting at least 10 assists. Jokic has had a triple-double in two of the team’s four games this series. He’s going to want to give it his all in a potential close-out game. Jokic is Jokic, but that doesn’t mean it’s easy to get a triple-double. Make sure you’re getting + odds on this prop if you bet it.

Good luck, y’all!

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