More and more leagues are transitioning away from the standard 5×5 categories. Whether your league is doing this to spice things up or to try and stay in line with the new strategies of baseball, it is important to stay on top of these changes. No part of the game we love has changed as much as the reliance on pitching. Starting pitchers are working fewer innings while the reliance on the bullpen has skyrocketed. Managers focus more on getting their best relievers in the game in the most high-leverage situation rather than saving them for the ninth inning. As a result, more leagues are moving to saves + holds as their category. How should fantasy managers attack their drafts in these types of leagues? This article aims to answer that looming question.
Trends and Strategies for Saves + Holds Leagues
Last January, I wrote a similar article looking at how baseball has trended over the past few years. To avoid writing the same thing twice, I encourage you to check that article out. This season, I want to take a new look at how to best analyze the value of relievers in this scoring format. To do so, what better way than to utilize the FanGraphs Auction Calculator? This calculator allows you to mimic the settings of your league and then uses year-to-date or projection data to help determine a player’s value in dollars.
To start, I wanted to look at the dollar figures compared at the highest level. The calculator was a bit skewed as it was holding WHIP at an extremely high priority, so I removed that from the scoring format. For normal save-only leagues, the highest reliever in 2023 was Felix Bautista who generated a dollar value of $24.2. Eleven relievers were worth at least $10. 10/11 were their team’s primary closer (the only exception was Tanner Scott who still accumulated 12 saves but also won nine games). The names present on that list are the names we would expect to be valued highly in a saves-only league. Bautista, Devin Williams, Alexis Diaz, Camilo Doval, David Bednar, (Scott), Josh Hader, Jordan Romano, Craig Kimbrel, Raisel Iglesias, and Emmanuel Clase. Closers give your fantasy team a significant edge in save-only leagues.
How does this change for saves + holds leagues? The number of relievers worth at least $10 drops from 11 down to seven. Even more notable, the names are not the most note-worthy names. Bautista, Williams, Scott, and Diaz maintained their double-digit valuation, but the other relievers are Colin Poche, Hector Neris, and Matt Brash. Not only are relievers less valuable in saves + hold leagues, but you add big-time value to your team late in drafts.
The biggest advantage to drafting a closer in save + holds leagues is the safety. Even if a closer is removed from their role, they are still likely to be deployed in high-leverage situations. Also, while the seventh inning might rotate between arms depending on matchups, the closer is always going to get the ninth inning. My favorite strategy for this format is drafting players on good teams without a set closer or drafting the next man up. These arms will get a chance to close some games while almost always being deployed in the highest-leverage situations.
3 Relievers to Target in Saves + Holds Leagues
Kevin Ginkel – ARI
This section pains me to write. Perhaps no player enjoyed a bigger coming-out party during the Postseason than Kevin Ginkel. Relying heavily on his wipeout slider, Ginkel carved up opposing batters throughout the playoffs. He did not surrender a single earned run in 11.2 innings pitched.
Ginkel was quietly spectacular all season for Arizona. In a bullpen that was shaky at times, Ginkel threw 65.1 innings pitched to a 2.48 ERA. Early on in his professional career, Ginkel struggled with command. He walked 16.5% of the Major League batters he faced back in 2020 and then another 10.9% in 2021. He improved his control last season lowering his walk rate to 8.9% which is all he needed to take off in 2023. His fastball which already sits in the upper-90s with solid movement and spin is aided by his 88th percentile extension making the pitch even harder to hit. His slider generated a chase rate of 34.7% and a whiff rate of 40.4%.
Besides being extremely effective last year, his usage down the stretch and in the playoffs is the real reason to value him in fantasy. After being a major weakness for their team during the first half, the team shifted around their bullpen post-All-Star Break. Ginkel moved into more of a high-leverage role and saw his counting stats take off. Not only did he win six games (likely unsustainable), but he also got four saves and seven holds. Now, I know what you are thinking. 11 saves + holds across the entire back half is nothing too noteworthy. Yes, but it gets even better. Once October started, Ginkel was used exclusively in high-leverage situations. In just 10 games, Ginkel accumulated six holds. If he pitches in 60 games again like he did last season, that would be 36 holds.
Paul Sewald is going to open the season as Arizona’s closer. There is no debating that. However, Sewald was far from unhittable once joining Arizona. He posted a 3.57 ERA with a 5.07 FIP and 4.92 xFIP with the Diamondbacks. He turns 34 in May and if he falters, Ginkel will be there to take over the role. Going outside of the top 550 in standard drafts, Ginkel is surely a draft-day steal. He is one of my favorite targets in saves + holds leagues.
Jeff Hoffman – PHI
Hoffman is the one name in the Phillies’ bullpen that nobody knew would contribute in 2023. Hoffman was drafted way back when in the first round of the 2014 draft by Toronto. After several failed attempts to start with Colorado, Hoffman began transitioning into a reliever role in 2022 with Cincinnati. Philadelphia picked him up in the off-season and by the end of the year he turned himself into Philadelphia’s most trusted right-handed reliever. After starting the yar in Triple-A, Hoffman finished the season with 54 appearances and a 2.41 ERA.
The most popular name in Philadelphia’s bullpen is Jose Alvarado. With the departure of Craig Kimbrel, Alvarado seems like the logical choice to step into the closer role. However, throughout the playoffs, Rob Thomson showed he prefers to utilize Alvarado in the highest leverage role possible. This could be in the fourth inning, eighth inning, or ninth inning. Alvarado’s ADP is 218 right now. The other popular and sexy name in drafts is Orion Kerkering, Kerkering comes with a 3000 RPM sweeper and made his Major League debut last season. His ADP is 567 in drafts.
However, the reliever that fantasy managers in saves + hold leagues should be targeting is Hoffman. Thomson is a bit of an old-school manager. He trusts his veterans, especially in the biggest moments. Hoffman comes with more experience than Kerkering and take a look at this Baseball Savant cover page:
Hoffman accumulated 10 of his 11 holds last season after July 28. He should continue to pitch in a high-leverage role in 2024 yet is going unnoticed in drafts. He is going outside of the top 665 picks in drafts and there is a realistic chance Hoffman even could close games in 2024. This is the perfect saves + holds league pick.
AJ Minter – ATL
When I wrote this article last season, AJ Minter was highlighted as one of the best options to target in saves + holds leagues. The same is true again this season. Minter appeared in 70 games for the Braves last season and finished the year with a 3.76 ERA. Although this is a fairly significant increase to his ERA from 2022, Minter was dominant throughout most of the season. On May 25, Minter’s ERA sat at 7.43 (despite a 3.21 FIP). Across his final 41.2 innings, Minter was nearly untouchable with a 1.73 ERA.
In addition to his dominance on the mound, Minter has proven to be the king of holds in recent years. He has posted at least 20 holds in three consecutive seasons adding at least five saves in each of the last two. Minter is as locked into a back-end role as a reliever can be and has shown no signs of decline. He gets the bonus of playing on perhaps the best team in baseball (during the regular season anyway) which will help him accumulate these counting stats.
Minter’s fantasy value is slightly down after some of his early-season struggles in 2023. However, his peripherals suggest that Minter should expect a strong bounce-back season in 2024. He currently goes outside of the top 600 in standard drafts making him an excellent player to target. Minter is as guaranteed as they come to grab 20+ holds next season and is the next man up if something were to happen to Iglesias. He is yet again one of my favorite relievers to target in this format.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
Any targets for AL only leagues?
Shawn Armstrong would be another guy from the AL