Next up in our 2024 Bullpen Previews is the American League West. There are some interesting names to earmark here as we head into prime draft season starting after the New Year. We run the gamut in the AL West from a team that replaces one of the most established closers in the game (Houston and Ryan Pressly to Josh Hader) to a team that has no closer as we head into 2024 (Oakland).
Let’s get to it.
AL West Bullpen Preview
Houston Astros
One of the pillars of the Houston Astros’ enduring success has been a stout and stocked bullpen. Ryan Pressly has been their closer for most of the last four seasons, and he’s reliable when healthy. Pressly had four wins and 31 saves in 2023. For him, the ratios were slightly inflated with a 3.58 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and 74 strikeouts in 65.1 innings. While the K% was a little down for him at 27.6%, his 54.5% groundball rate was 90th percentile in MLB, and his 35% chase rate was in the 98th percentile.
Bryan Abreu will be the primary setup man and is one of the best in baseball to roster if you count holds. If you ever hear analysts talk about “blood red” Baseball Savant pages, they may be talking about Abreu. Abreu chipped in with three wins with five saves when Pressly was unavailable, with a tidy 1.75 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, and a whopping 100 punchouts in 72 innings. Even if you don’t count holds, the ratio and strikeouts help make Abreu roster-worthy in many formats.
Rafael Montero should be the middle-inning bridge reliever and could earn holds. The Astros could make a free-agent acquisition or bring one of the aforementioned trio of Neris, Stanek, or Maton back. They did recently acquire Dylan Coleman from Kansas City and former top prospect Forrest Whitley is making the move to the bullpen as well as he battles back from injuries.
In December, we had mentioned that the Astros could sign a free-agent reliever, in the vein of Ryne Stanek or Phil Maton. But the Astros went all in and signed Josh Hader, the best free agent on the market, to a five-year, $95 million contract. This pushes Pressly into a high-leverage eighth-inning role, which he claimed to be ok with, and keeps Hader in the captain’s chair for saves. A potential weakness turns into a massive strength with Abreu, Pressly, and Hader at the end of games.
Hader is generally considered to be one of the best closers in the game. Hader has earned over 30 saves every season except the pandemic-shortened 2020. He is usually one of the first three or four closers off the board in most fantasy baseball drafts. Hader had two wins, 33 saves, a 1.28 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and a whopping 85 strikeouts in 56.1 innings.
Los Angeles Angels
Carlos Estevez was signed last offseason off the Colorado Rockies roster, and speculation began that he would be the closer. Estevez had an interesting season, earning 31 saves to go with 78 strikeouts in 62.1 innings. But it was a tale of two halves for him: 2-1, 1.80 ERA, 21 saves, and a passable 1.29 WHIP before the All-Star Break. After: 3-4, 6.59 ERA, 10 saves, and a bloated 1.76 WHIP. Egads!
Unfortunately, Estevez did not help ratios, with a 3.90 ERA and ghastly 1.49 WHIP. As it stands right now, Estevez probably gets the first chance at saves again in 2024. However, the 11% walk percentage serves as a sentinel here. On the flip side, he had the highest k% of his career at 27.8%. If he doesn’t improve upon the walk rate, he might not be closing for long.
The Angels signed free agent veteran Robert Stephenson to a three-year, $33 million contract and added lefty Matt Moore as well. Early indications from general manager Perry Minasian suggest that Stephenson will be in a setup role and that Esteveaz will continue to close, but that ultimately that choice will be left to new manager Ron Washington.
Stephenson has long been an intriguing arm who put it together in 2023 while pitching for the Tampa Bay Rays. Stephenson had three wins, one save, nine holds, and a 3.10 ERA with a .98 WHIP. Stephenson also had 77 punchouts in 52.1 innings. But those numbers do not tell the whole story. Stephenson was pitching badly in Pittsburgh when the Rays acquired him in early summer, and when the Rays get a pitcher, as a fantasy player, pay attention. Stephenson was second in MLB with a 30.4 K-BB%, behind only Felix Bautista. His 38.3 K% was third in MLB, behind only Bautista and Aroldis Chapman.
Jose Soriano and Ben Joyce emerged as young options looking for an advanced role in 2024. Soriano emerged to throw 42 innings and quietly had 56 strikeouts and a 3.64 ERA to go with 15 holds. He looks to be a key piece moving forward. Joyce has the obvious arm talent to be a major part of this bullpen, but health remains the key. Joyce is in the 100th percentile for velocity and averaged 100.9 MPH on his fastball, which he threw about 80% of the time. That might be slightly skewed since he only threw ten innings this past season. Command of a secondary pitch like a vicious slider will be key to Joyce’s success.
With the additions of Stephenson and Moore, what looked to be a potential weakness turns into a possible strength in the rugged AL West.
Oakland Athletics
In 2023, the Athletics used Trevor May as their closer. But, May retired at the end of the season, leaving the moribund Athletics without a closer. That being said, they may have an interesting in-house option or two.
Perhaps the most intriguing potential closer for 2024 is youngster Mason Miller. Miller is an obvious starter at some point as the number two prospect in the Oakland system, but an elbow sprain last year became a concern. Miller came back in September and pitched four outings out of the bullpen. At the Winter Meetings, general manager David Forst suggested that Miller would pitch out of the bullpen and could vie for the closer role.
Miller was in the 97th percentile for fastball velocity in a limited 33.1 innings last season. Miller will eventually return to a starting role, but in an attempt to limit his innings and keep him healthy, a to-be-determined bullpen role will be his spot in 2024. He could be the closer, or perhaps he could become a multiple-inning weapon out of the bullpen.
Lucas Erceg is another youngster who could have a huge impact on this bullpen. Erceg was also mentioned by Forst as a closer candidate. Looking at Erceg’s ratio stats is misleading; his 4.75 ERA and 1.58 WHIP belie his ability to limit hard contact with a high-velocity sinker and four-seam fastball. His average exit velocity was in the 86th percentile. Walks killed him last year; his 14.3 BB% was among the league’s worst. However, if he can work through those issues, he can become a valuable weapon in this bullpen.
The Athletics could also sign a bounce-back candidate on contract to sign and flip at the trade deadline. Dany Jimenez will have a role, as will newly signed veteran Trevor Gott.
Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners boast one of the deepest bullpens in baseball. Andres Munoz became the primary closer last year after what seemed like years of waiting, earning 13 saves and 14 holds to go with four wins, a 2.974ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and 67 strikeouts in 49 innings. That blood red we love to see on Statcast? It’s all over Munoz’s page. But Munoz does have a checkered injury history, including a long recovery from heel surgery that delayed his 2023 start, and a deltoid strain that kept him out from April through June. If you roster Munoz, you might want to have a plan B due to his availability issues from time to time. It is also important to keep in mind that manager Scott Servais likes to mix and match in the bullpen. Should Munoz be healthy and the top option, he could easily earn 30 saves.
Munoz is hardly their only weapon. Matt Brash stepped into a high-leverage role and was outstanding: nine wins, four saves, 24 holds, a 3.06 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a whopping 107 strikeouts in 70.2 innings. He was successful in part because he cut his walk rate to 9.4%. That’s still a little high and could go in either direction in 2024. But he should return to his eighth-inning role and be able to chip in with a few saves on days Munoz needs a break. Brash is the type of reliever who has tremendous value even if he is not closing games. Brash could give you better stats than a mediocre fifth starter for your fantasy teams.
Justin Topa was another great find for the Mariners. Acquired in a trade last January from Milwaukee, Topa earned 23 holds, five wins and three saves with a 2.61 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Not a huge strikeout help, but another guy to target for holds and ratio help.
Two names to watch here: Jackson Kowar and Prelander Berroa, both of whom could snag spots in the 2024 bullpen.
Texas Rangers
This is a bullpen in a bit of transition. Jose Leclerc is in a position to close after a successful postseason in which he earned four saves despite being a highwire act at times. The team lost veteran lefty Will Smith to the Kansas City Royals, and Aroldis Chapman is also a free agent. The Rangers did sign veteran Kirby Yates who has been resurgent in middle relief, to add to Josh Sborz. Sborz had a tremendous postseason after struggling to a 5.50 ERA during the regular season.
The Rangers added veteran closer David Robertson this week and he provides extra security should Leclerc falter; we still expect that Leclerc will be the closer to start the season. Robertson is 39 but is still effective in the right role. Yates and Robertson could easily get save opportunities here.
Lefty Brock Burke should return to a beefier role in 2024 after some struggles in 2023. Jonathan Hernandez and Grant Anderson could have roles depending on who else the Rangers add this offseason.