Death, taxes, and Travis Kelce being an elite fantasy tight end and league-winner. It’s pretty remarkable that Kelce has failed to finish as the top-scoring tight end in PPR formats just once in the last seven years. That lone season in 2021 when he wasn’t the top-scoring fantasy TE? That season, it was Mark Andrews.
Kelce certainly isn’t a bad pick per se in 2023, but it’s worth exploring whether Andrews could usurp Kelce for that top spot in fantasy once again this coming season. If Andrews can, or if he can at least come close to matching Kelce’s production in 2023, then it may be worthwhile to pass on Kelce for an elite running back or wide receiver in the first round and grab Andrews at a discount in the third round. Let’s dive in.
Is It Crazy to Draft Mark Andrews over Travis Kelce in 2023?
Efficiency
Kelce has dominated not only Andrews but all other tight ends in fantasy points per game (PPG). However, since Lamar Jackson took over as the starting quarterback in Baltimore, Andrews has been close to Kelce in terms of efficiency, both in fantasy points per route run as well as in yards per route run (YPRR).
The two tight ends have differed in how they score fantasy points, though. Andrews has been targeted more on downfield passes than Kelce, whereas the latter has thrived as a yards-after-the-catch playmaker. But when comparing their combined average depth of target (aDOT) and yards after the catch per reception (YAC/R), Andrews has actually held a slight edge in yardage efficiency.
And although both Kelce and Andrews project as their respective team’s top pass-catcher heading into 2023, Andrews has actually earned more targets per route run (TPRR) than Kelce in three of the last four seasons.
Overall, Kelce and Andrews have both been extremely efficient on a per-target and per-route basis, which has kept them as the only consistently-elite fantasy tight ends over the last few seasons. Of course, efficiency is only one part of the equation. Volume plays an important factor as well when it comes to projecting fantasy production, and that’s where Kelce has had a massive edge over the past four years.
Volume
It should come as no surprise that Kelce has been a target monster in a pass-happy Chiefs offensive scheme under Andy Reid. While Andrews has actually seen a higher team target share than Kelce over the last three years, Kelce has far outpaced Andrews in total targets and targets per game.
Reid has loved to pass since his days in Philadelphia, and that pass-first mentality has only intensified since Kansas City hit on Patrick Mahomes in the 2018 NFL Draft. Over the last four seasons, the Chiefs have operated a pass-heavy offense and have led the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) every single year. Kansas City’s offensive pace has also helped make Kelce a fantasy superstar.
With more passing plays and more total offensive plays, it’s no wonder that Andrews has failed to match Kelce’s elite fantasy production despite having produced similarly in efficiency metrics. In addition to efficiency and volume, touchdowns are often the great equalizer when it comes to fantasy production.
Touchdowns
Andrews hasn’t scored more touchdowns in a season than Kelce since 2019, which makes sense considering that Kelce has seen far more red-zone targets over that span. However, it’s worth noting that Andrews scored just one less touchdown than Kelce did in 2021 when the two saw a similar number of red-zone targets.
That said, the sheer volume of red-zone targets that Kelce has seen from Mahomes over the last four years is staggering, though not wholly unexpected. After all, not only has Kansas City led the NFL in PROE each of the past four seasons, but they’ve also led the league in red-zone PROE in three of the last four years.
Mahomes and Kelce really are a match made in heaven and every fantasy GM’s dream duo. In fact, Kelce’s touchdown rate has been remarkably consistent year over year, as he’s averaged a 10.6% touchdown rate since 2020.
Kelce’s touchdown rate has steadily increased over the last four seasons while Andrews’s touchdown rate has steadily declined over the same span. Though Kelce projects to maintain a similar touchdown rate in 2023, it’s possible and quite likely that Andrews should bounce back from a miserable 6.6 percent in 2022 when both he and Jackson missed time due to injuries.
The Todd Monken Effect
There are a few variables at play when it comes to projecting Andrews’s 2023 outlook, but by far, the biggest one is the change in offensive coordinator from Greg Roman to Todd Monken. As shown in the PROE and pace tables earlier, the Ravens never once ranked higher than 15th in PROE under Roman in his four years as offensive coordinator, and they never ranked higher than 22nd in neutral situation pace.
Monken clearly has a very different offensive philosophy. In his last four seasons as an NFL offensive coordinator, Monken’s offenses were fairly pass-heavy and fast-paced overall. His 2019 season was abnormally slow, but that can be partially attributed to the brutal year that Baker Mayfield experienced during his sophomore slump.
On top of his tendencies as an NFL offensive coordinator for the Buccaneers and Browns a few years ago, Monken’s collegiate success as Georgia’s offensive coordinator over the last few seasons is also encouraging for the Ravens’ 2023 outlook.
Monken’s offense admittedly struggled in his first season there, but mitigating factors in 2020 included installing a new offense as well as disruptions to football in general due to COVID. But in his final two seasons there, the Bulldogs’ offense was top-10 in PPG, explosive plays (20-plus yards gained), and yards per play.
Of course, it’s hard to project college success to the NFL, but it’s certainly encouraging that Georgia just won back-to-back national championships under Monken. It’s even more impressive that Monken accomplished what he did on offense with Stetson Bennett as his starting quarterback. Bennett certainly proved himself and played well, but the NFL made it clear that they gave more credit to Monken with his hiring in Baltimore than to Bennett, who was just a fourth-round selection in the 2023 NFL Draft.
2023 Outlooks
So what can we expect to be different for these two top-notch tight ends in 2023? For Kelce, the answer is probably “not much”.
The soon-to-be 34-year-old tight end showed no signs of slowing down last year, and Ian Hartitz at Fantasy Life has researched how older elite fantasy tight ends have historically been able to maintain higher fantasy production than older running backs or wide receivers. There is some risk of Kelce’s efficiency dropping off this coming season, but his YPRR and YAC/R metrics from 2022 shown above also support the theory that he has yet to lose a step.
I’m still projecting Kelce for a 106-1,267-11 receiving line on 151 targets (17.6 PPR PPG), which isn’t all that different from his 2022 production. Until we see a drop-off in performance, there’s no reason to think that his usage or efficiency will decline when Mahomes and Reid have proven to be a uniquely effective combination.
But what could Baltimore’s offense and Andrews’s projections look like under Monken this coming year?
Even assuming around a league-average PROE and neutral situation pace under Monken, the 2023 Ravens likely still won’t come anywhere close to the Chiefs in either metric. Still, Baltimore’s emergence from the dark age of run-heavy offenses should bring Andrews’s projections much closer to Kelce’s in 2023. As of now, I’m projecting Jackson for a career-high 512 pass attempts this coming season.
The Ravens have added wide receiver talent this offseason by drafting Zay Flowers and signing Odell Beckham, and they should get a healthy Rashod Bateman back in 2023, but I’m still projecting Andrews as the target leader in Baltimore. Assuming around a 27 percent target share for Andrews and 69 percent catch rate based on recent seasons, that would roughly equate to 95 receptions on 138 targets.
Using Andrews’s 12.4 average yards per reception and 10.7 percent average touchdown rate since 2019, he projects for around 1,184 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns in 2023. His projected 95-1,184-10 receiving on 138 targets would equate to around 16.2 PPR PPG. That’s still less than Kelce’s projected 17.6 PPR PPG above, but the difference is less than 1.4 PPR PPG.
Even if Kelce were to continue dominating and finish as the top-scoring fantasy tight end yet again, the projected 1.4 PPR PPG difference in their production is small relative to their large two-round gap in ADP. Having Kelce in fantasy in recent years has been a winning proposition, but he was a particularly massive advantage in 2020 and 2022, where he outscored the next tier of fantasy tight ends by over 4.0 PPR PPG.
And remember that the projections above are assuming league-average pass rates and pace for the Ravens’ offense and no decline in efficiency for Kelce; it’s entirely possible that Baltimore could pass even more than expected with a slight decline for Kelce at age 34.
Perhaps Andrews won’t outscore Kelce this coming year, but it’s at least within his range of outcomes. After all, Andrews was averaging 19.1 PPR PPG over the first six weeks of 2022 prior to suffering a knee injury. He also averaged 17.7 PPR PPG in 2021 when he beat out Kelce for the fantasy TE crown, so we know that Andrews has an incredibly high ceiling.
But fantasy players often play into recency bias. Kelce’s astonishing 5.7 PPR PPG differential to the next tier of fantasy tight ends last season has clearly carried over in the minds of drafters, resulting in a two-round gap in ADP between him to the TE2, Andrews.
At Kelce’s current ADP (6.2 overall), it’s possible to instead select elite running backs like Austin Ekeler (RB2) or Bijan Robinson (RB3) or elite wide receivers like Tyreek Hill (WR4) and A.J. Brown (WR6). At Andrews’s current ADP (29.5 overall), the best running back options in that ADP range are Josh Jacobs (RB10) and Breece Hall (RB11), and the best wide receivers available in that range are D.K. Metcalf (WR15) and Calvin Ridley (WR16).
Since 2019, the gap between the top three running backs to the back-end RB1s has been about 6.3 PPR PPG, on average. And over that same span, the gap between top-five wide receivers and mid-range WR2s has been around 5.3 PPR PPG, on average. Both of those differentials dwarf the tight end differentials, especially in 2019 and 2021.
Although ADP isn’t necessarily predictive given the rise of different draft strategies and more access to fantasy resources in recent years, Fantasy Labs found that positional rankings are more highly correlated to leverage than overall ADP. There will be some running back and wide receiver league-winners, but those are few and far between. The top options at those positions found in the early rounds have generally out-produced their lesser counterparts, often by a wide margin.
The point is that while Kelce may yet outproduce Andrews in 2023, the small difference in their projected PPR PPG would be more than overcome by the gap in production from an elite RB1 or WR1 around Kelce’s ADP of sixth overall to the back-end RB1s and mid-range WR2s around where Andrews is being drafted in the third round.
In short, the answer is yes, it would be crazy to draft Andrews over Kelce in 2023 at ADP. Do not reach for Andrews in Round 1 over Kelce.
However, considering the two-round difference in their current ADPs, do consider passing on Kelce in the first round for an elite running back or wide receiver. Instead, grab comparable tight end production from Andrews in the third round with an added bonus of a small but non-zero chance that he could outscore Kelce outright as well.
For more fantasy football and NFL content, follow me on Twitter @FFA_Meng.
For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
GIVEAWAY ALERT! 🚨🏈
We are excited to be launching another giveaway, where ONE lucky winner will receive an Official NFL Travis Kelce Signed Jersey!
Giveaway Details Below 👀 pic.twitter.com/9SOB29Q3yp
— Fantrax (@Fantrax) July 4, 2023