2023 Dynasty Fantasy Baseball First Base Rankings

Perhaps one of the “stickier” positions in fantasy baseball, first base has always been about the pop. Nearly every first baseman is a threat for 30 or more homers and it’s a spot to hide a defensive liability, allowing aging players to continue getting their bat in the lineup. While the top spot on my dynasty first base rankings is one of the best young stars in the game, Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt continue to prove that experienced veterans can still get it done.

First base prospects tend to be pretty hit-or-miss, literally. As most of these young sluggers are power-first, the strikeout rate tends to get in the way. We’ve seen this in recent years with names like Bobby Bradley and Nick Pratto. However, some of the rookies and prospects coming up now seem to be curbing the trend, including Miguel Vargas and Matt Mervis.

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Player Notes

• The top tier in my dynasty first base rankings features one of the best pure hitters in baseball and arguably the best power hitter in the leagues. Vladimir Guerrero and Pete Alonso are dominant forces at the position and have shown no signs of slowing down. At just 24 years old, Guerrero is a top-10 dynasty asset and has an argument to be in the top-5. As he enters his prime, it feels highly unlikely that any first baseman passes him, but Alonso would be the top candidate. Over the last four-plus seasons, no batter has gone deep as many times as Alonso and he was the first to double-digit homers in 2023. Since they both entered the league in 2019, they’ve regularly been among the most impactful hitters in the game, and their career stats back it up.

  	AVG	OPS	HR	RBI
  Guerrero	.286	.867	109	323
  Alonso	.261	.887	156	403

• Vinnie Pasquantino is showing all the signs of a future superstar at first base. At just 25 years old with fewer than 100 MLB games under his belt, he already has an elite plate approach. So far in 2023, he’s struck out in just 14.8% of his plate appearances with a 12.5% walk rate. Pasquantino regularly hits the ball hard (88th percentile) and rarely whiffs (72nd percentile). He’s hitting .267 to start the year but he’s had some slight BABIP misfortune (.276 despite strong batted-ball data). While he likely won’t reach the power ceiling that we see with Alonso, Matt Olson, and others, he should consistently hit 25+ homers with a strong batting average.
• A pair of Tier 4 rookies, Miguel Vargas and Triston Casas, are off to slow starts in 2023. Vargas is hitting .213 but his notoriously good plate discipline has resulted in a .364 OBP. The 23-year-old hit over .300 every year during his minor-league career, including last season when he knocked 17 homers with a .915 OPS at the Triple-A level. His long-term floor is still very high, though he’s certainly still a contact-over-power bat. As for Casas, he’s drawing plenty of walks but the underlying numbers haven’t been very kind. The floor isn’t as high as Vargas’ but the ceiling could be higher if the power clicks. Casas’ increased launch angle and decent exit velocities suggest that it could be coming.
• After seeing his fantasy value crater in 2021, Alec Bohm has made big strides over the last two seasons. The main area of improvement has been his strikeouts rate; he lowered it from an ugly 26.6% in 2021 to 17.3% since the start of 2022. His batted-ball data is solid (84th percentile in hard-hit rate) and he nearly never swings and misses. With Rhys Hoskins out for the season, Bohm should continue manning first base and might be a good option to stay there long-term. Bohm doesn’t have the power of a traditional first baseman but some launch angle adjustment could unlock another level.
• Speaking of launch angle, Yandy Diaz is finally becoming the player everyone thought he could be. His Savant page is painted red in every category related to batting, including exit velocities and hard-hit rate near the best in the league. For the first time in his career, he has a launch angle in the double-digits, resulting in six homers and a .991 OPS through 89 plate appearances. For dynasty purposes, this breakout would’ve been much more exciting before his age-31 season. Still, Diaz looks like a legitimate power threat with elite plate discipline for the foreseeable future.

  	Launch Angle	Avg. EV	OPS	K%	BB%
  Career	5.5	91.3	.792	14.7	12.6
  2023	14.1	95	.991	14.1	12.9

Quick Hits

• Rhys Hoskins will miss the entire 2023 season due to an ACL injury, putting his dynasty value in question. I’d consider him a hold for now. He’s a consistent power threat that will be a popular name on the free agent market this offseason. Hoskins will return in 2024 for his age-31 campaign and it’s reasonable to assume that his power will stick around for at least a few more seasons.
• CJ Cron continues to produce consistent power. He’s knocked five homers through the first 20 games this season after totaling 57 over the previous two seasons with Colorado. His long-term value is a bit of a question mark as the 33-year-old is set to become a free agent after 2023 and leaving Coors Field would impact his ceiling.
• Trey Cabbage has been terrific with Triple-A Salt Lake this season, slashing .366/.408/.690 with 11 extra-base hits and 16 RBI. He’s drilled 42 minor-league homers in 157 games over the last three seasons. He turns 26 in May and hasn’t made his MLB debut yet, but the power is real. Cabbage could see some MLB time if Brandon Drury and Jared Walsh continue to be ineffective or unavailable.

2023 Dynasty First Base Rankings