Many dynasty football leagues now play in a superflex format. Quarterback scarcity is a far bigger concern in superflex formats, which changes how I have the incoming class of quarterbacks ranked between 1QB rookie rankings and superflex rookie rankings. In 1QB leagues, few quarterback prospects are selected in the first round of rookie drafts. However, in superflex leagues, consistent producers at QB2 and QB3 on dynasty rosters are necessary depth since it’s beneficial for the vast majority of teams start two quarterbacks every week.
Scarcity at the position pushes many quarterbacks up into the first round of superflex rookie rankings, which in turn pushes talent at running back and wide receiver down into the second and third rounds. With the 2022 NFL Draft in the books, here are my updated top-36 rookies assuming a superflex format with PPR scoring (you can find my 1QB rookie rankings here).
Most mock drafts had the Steelers selecting a quarterback with the 20th overall pick in the first round, but they were split between Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis. The hometown hero ended up staying in Pittsburgh, but while Pickett will get a solid shot to start and some measure of job security once he does, even quarterback-needy teams in superflex shouldn’t reach for him. While Pickett can read coverages and has good overall accuracy and arm strength, he makes risky decisions at times and struggles with unexpected pressure. The latter is of particular concern in Pittsburgh. Although the Steelers have good surrounding talent to support Pickett in Najee Harris and a strong wide receiver room, the offensive line leaves much to be desired. Chukwuma Okorafor and Dan Moore Jr. bookending the line at the tackle positions are middling options, and how the interior of the line will look is still very much up in the air. It wouldn’t be shocking if Mitch Trubisky were to beat Pickett out for the starting job for the majority of the 2022 season, and it might actually be a blessing in disguise for Pickett’s development to sit until Pittsburgh makes additional upgrades to the offensive line next offseason.
So what about Willis after his fall from grace into Round 3 of the NFL Draft? He has since fallen to the late first round of my superflex rookie rankings. The long-term upside is still there even if Willis lacks short-term production and is no longer worth a top pick. Willis still has the raw tools as a passer and abilities as a runner to have elite upside in fantasy, but he needs to develop as a passer to progress through reads and work on his accuracy. Prior to the NFL Draft, I compared him to Jalen Hurts with more job security if and when he takes over as the starter. After Ryan Tannehill‘s awful showing against the Bengals in the playoffs, Willis could start at some point this coming season or in 2023 if Tannehill performs poorly for a stretch of games this year or in the playoffs. In fact, Tannehill has little dead money left on his contract after 2022, so don’t let Willis’s fall in the NFL Draft drop him past the late first or early second round of your superflex rookie drafts.
Ridder is an interesting prospect to take a chance on as well later in superflex rookie drafts. Like Willis, he has the raw tools in arm strength and mobility to have incredible upside, but he has a lot to work on as a passer before that can materialize. Ridder has inconsistent accuracy due to mechanics and makes baffling reads at time, both of which will limit his starts if not fixed. Coincidentally, he reminds me a lot of Marcus Mariota, who he’ll now sit behind as a rookie in Atlanta. In his one game filling in for the Raiders in 2020, Mariota was able to keep the game close against the Chargers and had a good fantasy showing with 88 rushing yards and a rushing score. However, he threw behind his receiver late in the fourth quarter, which resulted in a costly interception and ultimately led to a loss. This is the concern with Ridder. He’s a risky upside bet in that even if he starts late in the 2022 season for the Falcons, he’ll need to play impeccably for them to not draft a stronger quarterback prospect early in 2023. Ridder fits the theme for the 2022 quarterback class as “risky but with upside”, so take shots on quarterback prospects like Matt Corral and Carson Strong later in superflex rookie drafts rather than reaching for Pickett or Willis in the early first round.
2022 Superflex Rookie Rankings
Last updated on Tuesday, May 10th.
|1||WR1||Drake London||WR||ATL||London wins 50/50 catches with great body control, has good route-running and speed considering his size, and steps into an alpha WR1 role in ATL.|
|2||WR2||Jameson Williams||WR||DET||Williams has impeccable body control and good hands with blazing speed. Don't expect much as a rookie, but he has elite upside long-term.|
|3||RB1||Breece Hall||RB||NYJ||An agile runner with good vision and speed, he's a great fit for the Jets' zone scheme but is likely the 1A in a committee backfield.|
|4||WR3||Garrett Wilson||WR||NYJ||Wilson has good burst and route-running and should be a solid contributor for the Jets if they scheme him open to create yards after the catch.|
|5||WR4||Chris Olave||WR||NO||Olave is an excellent route runner and has speed to create big plays downfield. Volume is a short-term concern, but he has high upside long-term.|
|6||QB1||Kenny Pickett||QB||PIT||Pickett can go through progressions and avoids turnovers, but he may lack an elite fantasy ceiling. Still, he will be surrounded by weapons in PIT.|
|7||WR5||Skyy Moore||WR||KC||Given his lack of experience at WR, Moore is a solid route-runner and has decent speed and agility. He has WR2 upside with Mahomes.|
|8||RB2||Kenneth Walker||RB||SEA||A powerful runner with lateral agility, Walker is a great fit to be SEA's early-down RB, but receiving usage and overall offensive efficiency are concerns.|
|9||RB3||James Cook||RB||BUF||Cook has good vision as a runner and is an excellent receiver. In BUF's efficient offense, he could be a dynamic weapon with high fantasy upside.|
|10||WR6||Treylon Burks||WR||TEN||Burks has good hands and can win contested catches, but he profiles as a big slot WR for TEN, so lack of volume and TDs are both worrisome.|
|11||WR7||Christian Watson||WR||GB||Watson is a size/speed mismatch, but he's a raw route runner with inconsistent hands, so he'll need to develop more to win Rodgers's trust.|
|12||QB2||Malik Willis||QB||TEN||Willis has the raw tools but will need to develop behind Tannehill. If he can improve as a passer, he'll have a high fantasy ceiling due to rushing upside.|
|13||RB4||Isaiah Spiller||RB||LAC||Despite lacking top-end speed, Spiller is an explosive runner and capable receiver. Ekeler will be 27 this year with little dead money in 2023.|
|14||QB3||Desmond Ridder||QB||ATL||An athletic QB who can progress through reads, Ridder doesn't have many highlight-reel plays but is pro-ready and could beat out Mariota as a rookie.|
|15||WR8||Jahan Dotson||WR||WAS||Dotson is a great route-runner and has speed to make big plays. He'll be a good complement to McLaurin but is unlikely to see high target volume.|
|16||QB4||Matt Corral||QB||CAR||An accurate QB with fair mobility, Corral offers a high fantasy ceiling but fell in the draft due to alcohol-related concerns. He's a risk/reward prospect.|
|17||RB5||Pierre Strong||RB||NE||Strong is an elusive and explosive runner who can also catch the ball. He could quickly move up the depth chart in NE and become a PPR flex option.|
|18||RB6||Dameon Pierce||RB||HOU||A good runner who powers through contact, Pierce should be HOU's early-down back but offers limited fantasy upside barring major TD production.|
|19||QB5||Sam Howell||QB||WAS||Howell needs to work on accuracy and pocket presence, but he could have a chance to start as a rookie if Wentz has a slew of poor games.|
|20||RB7||Zamir White||RB||LVR||White has good vision and burst and projects to play on early downs in 2023 with the Raiders having declined Jacobs's fifth-year option.|
|21||WR9||George Pickens||WR||PIT||Pickens is a decent route-runner who can make big plays downfield, but he enters a talented receiving room and has injury concerns.|
|22||WR10||John Metchie||WR||HOU||While unlikely to contribute much as a rookie, Metchie can be a good complement to Cooks and provides YAC ability as a receiver.|
|23||WR11||Alec Pierce||WR||IND||Pierce can be a deep threat for IND and win contested catches but has some work to do as a route-runner and profiles as a no. 2 receiver.|
|24||WR12||Wan'Dale Robinson||WR||NYG||Robinson is a YAC playmaker who can be used in a variety of ways and could start for the Giants in the slot as a rookie.|
|25||RB8||Tyrion Davis-Price||RB||SF||Davis-Price has experience in zone schemes and is a powerful runner. As a potential goal-line option for SF, he could be a TD-dependent flex.|
|26||RB9||Isaih Pacheco||RB||KC||Any RB tied to Mahomes piques interest. Pacheco is a tough runner and good pass protector with long-term upside with Jones on a one-year deal.|
|27||WR13||Khalil Shakir||WR||BUF||Shakir is a versatile player who is great at creating YAC. He could quickly become a reliable outlet option for Allen and a solid PPR flex play.|
|28||TE1||Jelani Woods||TE||IND||With his athleticism and catch radius, Woods could become a red-zone threat for IND but figures to share snaps with Alie-Cox and Granson.|
|29||TE2||Trey McBride||TE||ARI||McBride is a good all-around TE and can make some big plays as a receiver, but he's a long-term hold given Ertz's presence in ARI.|
|30||WR14||Jalen Tolbert||WR||DAL||Tolbert has decent speed and hands to be a deep threat but has a ways to go in developing his route-running ability.|
|31||RB10||Tyler Allgeier||RB||ATL||Allgeier is a physical runner with good vision but lacks any elite traits. He can be an immediate contributor but probably won't see a ton of touches.|
|32||RB11||Rachaad White||RB||TB||White has good vision and agility as a receiver with a high weekly ceiling in PPR if he becomes the complement to Fournette on third-downs.|
|33||RB12||Hassan Haskins||RB||TEN||A big, bruising back, Haskins is a high-upside fantasy handcuff in TEN who could see a lot of snaps if Henry were to miss time in 2022.|
|34||WR15||Justyn Ross||WR||KC||Ross's neck condition and surgery caused him to go undrafted, but if healthy, he can be a dominant WR prospect and is paired up with Mahomes.|
|35||QB6||Carson Strong||QB||PHI||Questions about his knee make him a risky prospect, but he can make reads and has the arm strength to become a quality starting QB if healthy.|
|36||WR16||Tyquan Thornton||WR||NE||Thornton's speed gives NE's offense a deep threat, but at best he'll be a boom or bust WR3 option in fantasy with NE favoring a run-heavy offense.|
For more fantasy football and NFL content, follow me on Twitter @FFA_Meng.