After all four of the divisional round games came down to the wire, can the conference championships live up to the hype? Kansas City took down Buffalo yet again and proved that the road to the Super Bowl continues to go through Arrowhead on the AFC side. On the NFC side, the Rams squeaked out a win against the Buccaneers, but can they finally beat their divisional nemesis after trading for a quarterback upgrade last offseason? Here are my NFL playoff predictions for the conference championship games.
2022 NFL Playoff Predictions – Conference Championship Round
Cincinnati Bengals (4) at Kansas City Chiefs (1)
The Bengals beat the Chiefs at home just earlier this month, and while going to Arrowhead will be a tougher challenge, Joe Burrow and company should be up to the task. Burrow has been a prolific passer in his sophomore season, ranking second-best in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) behind only Aaron Rodgers, and Kansas City’s defense has struggled all year. The Chiefs rank just 23rd in pass defense, and they’ve allowed the ninth-highest ANY/A to opposing quarterbacks in 2021. However, though Cincinnati logged over 500 yards of total offense in their last matchup with Ja’Marr Chase accounting for 266 yards of that, Kansas City will be sure to adjust their man coverage scheme to limit Chase and perhaps play a bit more zone this coming weekend. The offensive line also remains a concern for the Bengals. Burrow took nine sacks last weekend against the Titans, and while the Chiefs only sacked Burrow four times in Week 17, they rank seventh in pass rush win rate this season.
On the other side, even after a slow start to the season, Kansas City boasts the third-best passing offense, and their offensive line has solidified down the stretch, ranking fourth in adjusted sack rate. The Chiefs also rank fourth in both passing yards and points scored and come into Sunday’s game having scored 42 points in each of their last two playoff games. Cincinnati slowed Mahomes down by playing conservatively and limiting big plays last time, but an underrated aspect continues to be the Bengals’ ineffective run defense after losing defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi to a season-ending foot injury two weeks ago. Tennessee ran for 140 yards on Cincinnati last weekend and kept things close but ultimately couldn’t overcome Ryan Tannehill’s three interceptions. In Week 17, the Chiefs rushed for 155 yards and two touchdowns. A healthy Clyde Edwards-Helaire is being overlooked by most and could play a bigger factor in this much-anticipated rematch. Buffalo played a nearly perfect game last week, but it didn’t matter. Playoff Mahomes is just different, and it’s hard to bet on a Cincinnati upset on the road.
Prediction: Chiefs 34, Bengals 27
San Francisco 49ers (6) at Los Angeles Rams (4)
The major storyline heading into Sunday’s NFC West showdown is that Sean McVay hasn’t beaten Kyle Shanahan in three years. San Francisco ranks fifth in rushing DVOA, and Jimmy Garoppolo has been a surprisingly efficient passer this season, ranking sixth in ANY/A. Although the Rams’ defense ranks sixth against the pass and fifth against the run, they haven’t been able to stop Shanahan’s rushing attack in either game so far. The 49ers have rushed for nearly 300 yards combined in the two games earlier this season, and they’ve scored 29.0 points on average, higher than their season-long average of 25.1 points per game. And while Los Angeles leads the league in pass rush win rate, they were able to sack Garoppolo just four times total in their two 2021 meetings. San Francisco has withstood the Rams’ stout front seven with Shanahan scheming successful run plays and opening up the middle of the field for Garoppolo’s bread and butter, short passes with yards after the catch from his receivers.
McVay has had mixed success in adding wrinkles to his offense. After scoring just 10 points in their Week 10 loss, the Rams jumped out to a 17-3 lead in the Week 18 rematch. However, McVay was unable to overcome the 49ers’ halftime adjustments, scoring just one touchdown in the second half and ultimately losing that game. The Los Angeles offensive line has ranked seventh in adjusted sack rate this year, but San Francisco still managed to sack Matthew Stafford five times in Week 18. And though Stafford ranks third in ANY/A on the year, he’s thrown two interceptions in each of his games against the 49ers. This game will come down to turnovers, as both Garoppolo and Stafford threw two interceptions in Week 18. Since then, Stafford doesn’t have a turnover in the playoffs, and San Francisco has advanced despite Garoppolo spraining his shoulder against Dallas and having thrown an interception in each playoff game so far. As Ben Solak has laid out in detail, Shanahan has won the scheme battle in recent history, and it’ll be up to Stafford to elevate McVay’s offense. But until we see Stafford and McVay beat Shanahan, the 49ers still have the presumed edge in this one.
Prediction: 49ers 27, Rams 24
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