Waiting on QB is a drafting strategy you’ll hear from many people that have been playing fantasy football for a long time. However, just because most of the field is doing it does that mean you should too? While there is merit to just punting the at QB and making sure you’re strong everywhere else, sometimes the difference between finishing in 1st and finishing in 4th is forgoing that 3rd running back and taking an early QB.
Don’t Want to Wait on a QB?
Access to QB1
Drafting a quarterback that has a very strong likelihood to end the fantasy season as the QB1 is huge. Mainly because over the past 5 seasons the QB1 has outscored the QB2 by as little as 15 points in 2020 and as much as 73 points in 2019. Aside from 2020 the closest gap between the QB1 and QB2 in the last 5 seasons is 26 points. Unless you are in a superflex league you are only able to start 1 QB and passing up on another position early in order to be able to get a guy that can potentially score 70+ more points than the next guy could pay off.
With more and more draft material coming out each year, fantasy football managers are only getting more efficient. This means more people are ignoring QBs entirely and just taking a few shots at some of the late guys and playing the matchup game. The problem with this strategy is that your weekly upside is capped. You’re much better off having one elite QB than having a handful of average ones. Having multiple mid-round QBs you can easily find yourself with an underperforming starting QB when you desperately need a win.
Another important reason you might be better off not waiting on a QB is that a lot of the top guys have a rushing floor that some of the others don’t. Other than Justin Fields and Daniel Jones the rushing QBs are going early. I would include Trey Lance in that list but still unsure what’s going on with Jimmy Garoppolo. However, that added rushing flor is what helps set apart the top-tier QBs from the rest of the field. The last 3 seasons Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were the top-scoring fantasy quarterbacks and what do they both have in common? Their rushing ability. That premium rushing upside for your QB can only happen if you don’t wait on a QB.
3 QBs to Target Early
With all of that being said there are 3 QBs in particular that I feel you can take early enough in drafts, and have them finish as a top 3 fantasy QB. The first one being Josh Allen. Josh Allen currently has an ADP of 24, which means you are going to need to take him in the 2nd-3rd round to get him on your team. While that may seem expensive, keep in mind that he has finished as the QB1 the past 2 seasons. He is just now entering his prime on one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league. He also has that rushing floor which elevates his overall ceiling. If you have the number 1 or 2 pick in your draft you can easily set yourself up by pairing Jonathan Taylor or CMC with the potential overall QB1.
The next QB I want to go over is Lamar Jackson. Before Lamar Jackson got hurt he was averaging over 21 points per game and had the injury riddled Ravens sitting in 1st place and in control of the AFC. After he got hurt during the week 14 Cleveland game he missed the last 4 games of the season and the Ravens completely collapsed and missed the playoffs. Lamar Jackson is playing for a huge contract so expect him to want to show out. Also his 2 RBs, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, both had ACL injuries last year and may not be back to 100% by the start of the season. This means we can expect Lamar Jackson to be running the ball a lot. With an ADP of 49 you can easily get Lamar Jackson in the 3rd or 4th round.
Kyler Murray is another QB that is playing for a big contract this season. Heading into week 8 Kyler Murray was one of the top fantasy QB’s before his injury in their week 8 loss to the Packers. Even though he missed 3 games he still finished as a top 10 fantasy QB. This leads me to believe that if hadn’t missed those 3 games he could’ve very easily finished as a top 5 fantasy QB at the least. With Kyler Murray reuniting with his former college teammate Marquise Brown and if that chemistry is still there, then expect Kyler to not miss a beat fantasy wise while Deandre Hopkins is out the 1st 6 games of the season.